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101. Globalisation, Domestic Market Integration, and the Regional Disparities of India

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using a world trade model with India subdivided into states, the paper examines how regional disparities are affected by domestic inter-state trade as well as international trade. According to the analysis, international liberalisation promotes decentralisation and convergence, not divergence, so trade is not to blame for India's growing regional disparities. High economic growth within India makes domestic markets more important and the geographical effect of this is opposite to that of globalisation. This may counterbalance the geographical impact of international liberalisation and explain why recent changes in geographical clustering in India are limited. The empirical results are consistent with this. They also indicate that Indian services expansion is largely driven by increases in domestic demand due to growth, and that domestic market integration is essential for India's manufacturing sector. We argue that for larger nations, the domestic inter-regional trade is important and India should have a trade policy that addresses domestic as well as international market integration.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

102. The Drag on India's Military Growth

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
India's remarkable economic growth and newfound access to arms from abroad have raised the prospect of a major rearmament of the country. But without several policy and organizational changes, India's efforts to modernize its armed forces will not alter the country's ability to deal with critical security threats. Our research suggests that India's military modernization needs a transparent, legitimate and efficient procurement process. Further, a chief of defense staff could reconcile the competing priorities across the three military services. Finally, India's defense research agencies need to be subjected to greater oversight.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Development
Political Geography:
India

103. Hydropolitics in Pakistan's Indus Basin

Author:
Daanish Mustafa
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Water problems in Pakistan result largely from poor management, but the consequences of management failures are accentuated, both materially and politically, by international and subnational hydropolitics. There is enough water in the Indus basin to provide for the livelihoods of its residents for a long time, provided that the water is managed efficiently and equitably and that additional water is made available not just through storage but, more importantly, through higher efficiency and intersectoral transfers. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) seems to moderate the worst impulses of India and Pakistan toward each other, and perhaps therein lies IWT's greatest strength. Pakistani engineers typically interpret the IWT's extensive technical annexures very literally, whereas the Indian engineers tend to emphasize the treaty's criteria for techno-economi¬cally sound project design. No single completed or proposed Indian project on the three western rivers of the Indus basin alone has the potential to significantly limit flows of water to Pakistan. But the long list of proposed Indian projects on the those rivers will in the future give India the cumulative storage capacity to reduce substantively water flows to Pakistan during the low-flow winter months. The IWT, by performing an amputation surgery on the basin, made matters simple and allowed India and Pakistan to pursue their nationalist agendas without much need for more sophisticated and involved cooperation in the water field. This lack of cooperative sharing of water leaves the ecological and social consequences of the treaty to be negotiated and contested at the subnational scale. The interprovincial conflict over water distribution in Pakistan has potential—albeit entirely avoidable—repercussions for stability, at both the subnational and international levels. Instead of constructing very expensive, environmentally damaging, and economically dubious water-storage megaprojects in Pakistan, enhancement of the existing infrastructure's efficiency, coupled with better on-farm water management and more appropriate irrigation and farming techniques, would perhaps more than make up for any additional water that might be gained from megaprojects. Since the drought in southern Pakistan in the latter half of the 1990s, the single-minded focus of the Pakistani water bureaucracy on water development has made the issue of the construction of the Kalabagh Dam project a surrogate for a litany of Sindhi grievances against the Punjabi-dominated political, military, and bureaucratic system in Pakistan. The emphasis on maximizing water withdrawals and on greater regulation of the Indus river system contributed to accentuating the very high flood peaks in 2010. Although the floods are being used by the pro-dams lobby to call for construction of more storage on the Indus, the tragedy ought to inspire a more nuanced and comprehensive reevaluation of the water-management system in the basin. The IWT is a product of its time and could be fruitfully modified and renegotiated to bring it more in line with contemporary international watercourse law, the Helsinki rules, and emerging concerns with water quality, environmental sustainability, climate change, and principles of equitable sharing. But that renegotiation, if it ever happens, is going to be contingent upon significant improvement in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. India could be more forthcoming with flow data and be more prompt and open in communicating its planned projects on the Indus basin to Pakistan, particularly in the western basin. Pakistan can engage with India within the context of the IWT more positively than defensively, and also educate its media and politicians so as not to sensationalize essentially technical arguments by presenting them as existential threats.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Water
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

104. Social Inclusion in Mumbai: Economics Matters Too

Author:
Robert M. Buckley
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper questions the accuracy and validity of the criticisms made by Ananya Roy on the approach of a Mumbai based NGO, the Society to Promote Area Resource Centers (SPARC) and its partner grassroots federations in Mumbai. This includes the suggestion that the focus on sanitation rather than on land tenure is an appeal to middle-class values about cleanliness and that the support for relocating those who lived right next to the railway tracks made them agents of the state. But SPARC's support for community toilets was in response to what grassroots organizations asked for and these also have high social returns. SPARC's support for resettlement for those living along the railway tracks was for those who were going to be moved and this support allowed those who were to be resettled to have far more influence on where, when and how the resettlement took place. Here too, the social returns from faster, safer trains meant costs saved that were more than the costs of providing good quality accommodation for those who had to move.
Topic:
Development and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Mumbai

105. Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons

Author:
Michael Auslin
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific region will be the primary foreign policy challenge for the United States and liberal nations over the next generation. Doing so successfully will provide the greatest economic and political opportunities for the next quarter century. Conversely, a failure to maintain stability, support liberal regimes, create cooperative regional relations, and uphold norms and standards of international behavior will lead to a region, and world, of greater uncertainty, insecurity, and instability. Due to its economic strength, military power, and political dynamism, the Indo-Pacific will be the world's most important region in coming decades, and its significance will be felt throughout the globe. Since the end of World War II, it has transformed itself into the world's economic powerhouse, yet has also witnessed a struggle between tides of liberalism, authoritarianism, and even totalitarianism. It remains riven by distrust, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and painful historical memories. The Indo-Pacific's unique geography makes the balance of regional security most vulnerable in its "commons": the open seas, air lanes, and cyber networks that link the region together and to the world.
Topic:
Security, Development, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, and Australia/Pacific

106. The Political Economy of India's Climate Agenda

Author:
Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This Working Document complements the CEPS Policy Brief, Understanding India's climate agenda, and elaborates on three key issues related to the country's energy challenges: access to energy, the future emissions trajectory and energy subsidies. This study looks into the making and framing of the country's domestic climate agenda from a political economy perspective. As long as both GDP and primary energy demand keep growing at the current rates, it may be concluded that the country's future, absolute greenhouse-gas emissions are also likely to grow but remain relatively low. Moreover, India's emissions intensity is expected to continue declining in line with the recent voluntary pledge by the Indian government. The study takes note of the national action plan launched in India, and the adoption of a flexible approach in international negotiations while maintaining a preference for several core principles, including equity. Lastly, the study explores the possibility for addressing issues such as international and intra-national equity in the context of the long-term EU–Indian partnership.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
India

107. Understanding India's Climate Agenda

Author:
Christian Egenhofer and Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
India has become an important partner for the EU in both multilateral and bilateral relations in a wide range of policy areas, including energy and climate change. Despite the strategic importance of this partnership, there may be insufficient awareness and understanding among EU stakeholders a bout India's development needs and challenges, its high degree of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the actions it has taken domestically and in international fora to address climate change. The country is among those rapidly and steadily growing economies with an increasing share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, although it starts from a very low emissions base.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
India

108. Developing Countries – even China – Cannot Rescue the World Economy

Author:
Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Many analysts believe that developed countries will recover very slowly from the global economic crisis. Consequently, they have looked to the emerging economies of the developing world to help stabilize the world economy and generate a stronger recovery. Indeed, when the financial crisis first engulfed the rich countries in 2008 and early 2009, growth in developing economies was not affected as their banks and financial systems faced neither credit problems nor a more serious meltdown. It is true that some foreign investors, particularly institutional investors, withdrew their money from developing countries with large stock exchanges, setting off stock price declines and some currency devaluations. But this did not affect the “real” economy of production and employment. There was a wide belief that many developing economies were “decoupled” from the rich economies and could continue to grow and this growth would buoy the world economy. Even when output declined dramatically in the developed economies, reducing the demand for developing countries' exports, it was expected that growth in the larger emerging economies would not be significantly affected. This has been borne out by subsequent events. Growth in China has been 8-9 percent and in India about 6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China and India

109. Approaches to Fostering Productivity Growth in Brazil, China and India

Author:
John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, and Yao Li
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Productivity growth is a significant contributor to GDP growth, particularly to increases in per capita income. However, there is considerable ambiguity regarding how to measure the concept of technical progress, and consequently on policies that would foster productivity growth. Brazil, China and India, three important emerging economies, are seeking to foster productivity growth through encouraging innovation and technology transfers from the more developed economies. But given the ambiguities about how to encourage innovation and technology transfers, governments in these countries adopted a plethora of policies in the hope that the combination will be effective. This ambiguity can also be seen in the much slower growth of productivity in Brazil than China, even though Brazil has scored higher on the World Bank's Knowledge Assessment Methodology.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, India, and Brazil

110. The evolving post-crisis world

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The worst of the global financial crisis (GFC) is over, but it has left scars, principally in the form of fiscallydriven debt increases, balance sheets that still need repair and high unemployment in the principal crisis countries. There is also unfinished business from the precrisis period, in the form of external imbalances. More positively, the crisis offers lessons about economic policymaking that may improve the way things are done. Of course the main lessons are for the developed countries that were at the centre of the crisis. But the countries of the region had to cope with the backwash, and in doing so lessons were learned. In addition, the lessons in the crisis countries, learned in an environment of extreme stress, may have relevance for the emerging market economies of this region.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia