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731. Global Energy Markets in a Time of Political Change

Author:
Bill White
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
A shift in relative energy consumption among regions and the development of new, unconventional supplies will be the most significant changes over the next twenty years. The dominant fuels in the world energy market until 2030 will continue to be hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and natural gas. Major shifts will occur, however, among the three fuels, among regions and in their supply. Globally, oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel as it supplies more than 90 percent of the energy for transportation. Coal, now the dominant fuel used for electric power generation, will lose ground to natural gas, a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon. Natural gas will become the second largest overall supplier and well positioned to replace coal as the leading supplier for electric power. Developing countries will lead the way in overall energy growth, with Chinese and Indian energy demand growing fastest. Energy demand in developed countries will remain flat. For the United States, growth in gas shale and oil shale are likely to be “game changers,” altering the supply picture dramatically.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

732. Asia’s Space Race: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries, and International Risks

Author:
James Clay Moltz
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
In contrast to the close cooperation practiced among European states, space relations among Asian states have become increasingly tense. If current trends continue, the Asian civilian space competition could become a military race. To better understand these emerging dynamics, James Clay Moltz conducts the first in-depth policy analysis of Asia's fourteen leading space programs, concentrating especially on developments in China, Japan, India, and South Korea. Moltz isolates the domestic motivations driving Asia's space actors, revisiting critical events such as China's 2007 anti-satellite weapons test and manned flights, Japan's successful Kaguya lunar mission and Kibo module for the International Space Station (ISS), India's Chandrayaan lunar mission, and South Korea's astronaut visit to the ISS, along with plans to establish independent space-launch capability. He investigates these nations' divergent space goals and their tendency to focus on national solutions and self-reliance rather than region-wide cooperation and multilateral initiatives. He concludes with recommendations for improved intra-Asian space cooperation and regional conflict prevention. Moltz also considers America's efforts to engage Asia's space programs in joint activities and the prospects for future U.S. space leadership. He extends his analysis to the relationship between space programs and economic development in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, North Korea, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, making this a key text for international relations and Asian studies scholars.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Science and Technology, and Asia
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea
Publication Identifier:
9780231527576
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

733. National President’s Forum: ‘India 2020’

Author:
Garry Rodan
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Broadly, Australia’s post-WWII foreign relations with Asia are characterised by four dominant themes, with the focus on India being most recent. From 1954 through to the mid-1990s, Australia’s dealings with Indo-China consumed considerable political energy of policy makers, not least through involvement in the Vietnam War. In the same period, Australian engagement with Southeast Asia was also extensive as many countries in this region secured independence and underwent significant social, political and economic transformations. Australia’s levels of diplomatic engagement and expertise on Southeast Asia were high, most notably in relation to Indonesia. Meanwhile, Australia’s engagement with Northeast Asia has been forged fundamentally by economic opportunities, reinforced by security objectives. Finally, an interest-driven relationship with South Asia has assumed priority since the 1990s as India has adopted a different post-Cold War foreign policy direction.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
India and Australia

734. Contested Leadership in International Relations: Power Politics in South America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Daniel Flemes and Thorsten Wojczewski
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Given the importance of the assertion or prevention of regional leadership for the future global order, this paper examines the strategies and resources being used to assert regional leadership as well as the reactions of other states within and outside the respective regions. Secondary powers play a key role in the regional acceptance of a leadership claim. In this article we identify the factors motivating secondary powers to accept or contest this claim. Three regional dyads, marked by different degrees of “contested leadership,” are analyzed: Brazil vs. Venezuela, Indis vs. Pakistan, and South Africa vs. Nigeria. The research outcomes demonstrate that the strategies of regional powers and the reactions of secondary powers result from the distribution of material capabilities and their application, the regional powers' ability to project ideational resources, the respective national interests of regional and secondary powers, and the regional impact of external powers.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, India, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, and Nigeria

735. Against the Grainpremium content icon

Author:
Carlisle Ford Runge and Carlisle Piehl Runge
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the late eighteenth century, the English political economist Thomas Malthus took a look at two sets of numbers and had an unnerving vision: with food supplies increasing arithmetically while the number of people grew geometrically, the world population would eventually run out of food. "By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man," he wrote in 1798, "the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall some where and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind." He was right, at least at the time: in Malthus' day, food production was essentially limited by the availability of land, whereas procreation faced few restraints. Malthus did not foresee, however, that new technologies in the late nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth century would dramatically raise agricultural productivity. Farmers worldwide learned to use new fertilizers, petrochemical-based herbicides and insecticides, genetically improved plants (especially wheat, corn, and rice), and massive diversions of water for irrigation, notably in China and South Asia. Crop yields soared, and in the United States so much so that by the 1950s chronic surpluses and low prices were becoming problems. The economist Willard Cochrane wrote in 1965 that thanks to the recent technological revolution in U.S. agriculture, the previous decade had witnessed "the greatest gain in productive efficiency of any ten-year period in the history of American farming." Throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, crop yields continued to rise, not only in rich countries but also in many parts of the developing world. In India, Mexico, and elsewhere the "green revolution" was launched by plant breeders, such as the legendary Norman Borlaug. New varieties of wheat, maize, and rice raised yields by amounts that seemed miraculous at the time. The effort provided a new model for traditional farmers and improved their food security. And it encouraged a sense of purpose for agricultural research: to end world hunger. But it also exacerbated the disadvantages of poor, landless farmers relative to land-rich ones, who could afford the innovations. Landed farmers could find the credit to invest in irrigation and purchase high-yielding seeds, but those without access to credit, and thus the new inputs, were left behind.
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, South Asia, India, and Mexico

736. U.S. BITs and financial stability

Author:
Kevin P. Gallagher
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Almost immediately after taking office, the Obama administration charged the U.S. Department of State's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy with reviewing the U.S. Model bilateral investment treaty (BIT). The group established a sub-committee of business groups, labor and environmental organizations, and a handful of academic experts and tasked it to make official recommendations for reforming U.S. investment treaties. When completed, the Obama Administration hopes to proceed with official negotiations with China, India, Vietnam, and possibly Brazil.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, Brazil, and Vietnam

737. Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization

Author:
Alex Evans, Bruce Jones, and David Steven
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Globalization has entered a turbulent period. Over the past twenty years, the most significant threats to international security, stability, and prosperity have evolved rapidly. Global systems are now tightly interconnected, with risk proliferating freely across borders.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and India

738. The EU and the global climate regime: Getting back in the game

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Kristian Tangen
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Copenhagen climate summit was seen as a set-back for the eu. It was left out of the final meeting between the usa and major developing countries which lead to the Copenhagen Accord, and had to accept a deal that fell below its expectations. Due to the impact of the economic crisis, the eu's current target of a unilateral 20 % reduction is no longer as impressive as it seemed in 2007–2008; this is undermining the eu's claim to leadership. In order to match the higher pledges of Japan, Australia and the us, as well as shoulder its fair share of the industrialized countries' aggregate 30 % reduction, the eu would have to pledge a 35 % reduction. The eu's practise of attaching conditionalities to its higher target gives it very little leverage. However, there might be a case for the eu to move unilaterally to a 30 % reduction in order to accelerate the decarbonisation of its economy and capture new growth markets. Doing so could support stronger policy development in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and help rebuild trust among developing countries. But on its own it would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on the position of the other big players—the usa, China, India, and Brazil. The incoherence of the eu's support of a “singe legal outcome” from the Copenhagen summit, based on the elements of the Kyoto Protocol, was a major cause for its isolation. The us remains domestically unable to commit to this type of a ratifiable treaty while developing countries are not yet ready to commit to absolute targets. A return to a two-track approach, involving the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the negotiation of a new instrument for the usa and major developing countries, may be a more politically and practically feasible approach, while retaining the goal of working towards a legally binding instrument for all key participants over time.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, India, Brazil, and Australia

739. Where was united Africa in the climate change negotiations?

Author:
Jean-Christophe Hoste
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
A political commitment was reached in Copenhagen between five countries: US, China, India Brazil and South Africa. The rest of the conference simply “took note of it”, most with resignation, many with anger. This policy brief will have a closer look at the climate change negotiations from an African perspective. It will try to answer three questions to see whether the outcome of the negotiations was as unacceptable as South Africa said it was. First, what was the African Common Position and what were some of their demands? Second, how did the negotiating strategy to defend the African Common Position on climate change evolve? Third, why did South Africa call the agreement it negotiated with the US, China and India unacceptable but did it not decline to be part of that deal?
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

740. The Economy of Burma/Myanmar on the Eve of the 2010 Elections

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The government of Burma is undergoing a critical transition: Before the end of 2010, the military regime that has ruled the country since a palace coup in 1998 will hold an election based on a constitution drafted in a nondemocratic process and approved by a referendum in 2008. The referendum fell far short of global standards of credibility and the election is likely to yield a government that neither the antimilitary movement nor the international community view as legitimate. However, the constitution and election also may offer opportunities for further international involvement that began in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Burma's lagging economic performance—socioeconomic indicators placed it among the world's most impoverished in 2000—is due to a simmering internal conflict based on ethnic and religious differences. Successive military regimes after the failure of Burma's parliamentary government in 1962 have managed to further alienate the population and monopolize the benefits of Burma's abundant natural resources. Growth-disabling economic policies and brutal suppression of dissent since 1988 have caused an exodus of political and economic refugees estimated to be in excess of 3 million. However, Burma occupies a strategic space in the Southeast Asian region. It is a major supplier of natural gas to Thailand and could be a major agricultural exporter, as it was before World War II. Also, Burma is arguably the greatest obstacle to the 2015 integration objectives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its internal conflict contributes to tension between China and India. There is a glimmer of hope that the next government will consider economic policies conducive to sustainable economic growth, thereby improving the environment for political reconciliation. If so, the challenge for the international community will be to find ways to support economic policy changes in this direction that do not trigger a backlash from the country's military rulers. Though difficult, it may be possible to accomplish this through a patient economic strategy that involves more nuanced use of sanctions and effective collaboration with other actors in the region, particularly ASEAN.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
China, India, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar