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381. Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors

Author:
Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts. The current and expected demise of the traditional arms-control architecture, the renewed strategic competition, and the polarization of the multilateral debate on nuclear weapons have contributed to this renewed salience. Building upon the 2019 G7 Statement on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this report defines strategic risk reduction as the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral measures that aim at lowering the likelihood of nuclear weapons use through improved communication, predictability, and restraint, and underlines the need to adopt a strategic approach to nuclear risk reduction. Risks emanating from conflict dynamics between nuclear powers are different in nature and severity from those arising from technical incidents. This report argues that in a context of growing geopolitical rivalries, diplomats should prioritize mitigating the former type of risk. Risk reduction efforts should aim at hindering the most dangerous behaviors in crisis time, through measures focusing both on nuclear forces and on nonnuclear capabilities, whose impact on strategic balances keeps growing. Strategic risk reduction can strengthen international security and strategic stability by complementing arms control measures and deterrence policies. It is therefore crucial to ensure that diplomatic initiatives aimed at limiting nuclear risks do not ultimately, and paradoxically, increase the risk of war. Historical experience shows not only the feasibility of such an approach, but also the concrete security benefits that can be derived from it, by channeling the behavior of nuclear powers in times of tensions, reducing the ambiguity inherent in certain strategies and behaviors, or laying the foundations for international regimes based on operational and strategic restraint as well as on transparency.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, and United States of America

382. COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Dependence on China: The Indian Perspective

Author:
Amitendu Palit
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
China is India’s largest source of imports, nearly 15 percent of which are sourced from China. Many of India’s major imports—electrical machinery, electronic and semiconductor devices, fertilizers, antibiotics, iron and steel products, and vehicular parts—are extensively sourced from China. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical dependence of India’s pharmaceutical industry on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The dependence on China for both intermediate and finished products, has encouraged India to incentivize greater production at home through production-linked-incentives (PLIs) and to work with Japan and Australia on reorganizing regional supply chains. The paper examines the repositioning of supply chains in the strategic industry of pharmaceuticals. Efforts to reduce dependence on China assume great importance in this regard as India strives to become the leading supplier of affordable vaccines for tackling COVID-19.) The decade of the 2020’s has begun with India embarking on the dedicated mission of reducing import dependence and increasing self-reliance. The COVID-19 pandemic has starkly exposed the frailties of supply chains relying heavily on China. For India, which relies extensively on China for several critical imports, no sector is more vulnerable to disruptions from over-dependence than its pharmaceuticals. India’s reputation as the “pharmacy of the world” drawn from its great proficiency in making affordable pharmaceutical formulations and vaccines, relies fundamentally on sourcing essential drug intermediates from China. As one of the leading actors in the world’s fight against COVID-19, India is wary of sourcing disruptions from China affecting its ability to contribute to expanding global health security. After focusing on the import dependence of India’s pharmaceutical industry on China, this paper analyzes the recent initiatives announced by India for increasing economic self-reliance and reducing such dependence. It concludes by reflecting on the prospects of India decoupling from China in sourcing pharmaceutical ingredients.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

383. The Coronavirus: Fueling Concerns and Contrasts between India and China

Author:
Tanvi Madan
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
On February 26, 2020, an Indian plane landed in Wuhan carrying medical supplies for China, which was then the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak. On its return, it evacuated a number of Indian and Bangladeshi nationals, as well as citizens of other countries. On the face of it, this is the kind of cooperative effort that is expected during a global public health crisis, with countries—even competitors—coming together at a time of need. However, the saga of that flight reflected another (prescient) dynamic—that COVID-19 would reinforce and increase rather than alleviate competition between China and India and complicate cooperation, with pandemic response and recovery efforts being seen through a competitive prism. That flight to Wuhan was not smooth; indeed, it was much delayed. Delhi had announced it a week earlier. It was a way to help China, demonstrate India’s capacity, and assist India’s neighbors by evacuating their citizens. But then Indian officials publicly, albeit anonymously, revealed that Beijing was not clearing the flight. The reason was unclear—China, after all, had been requesting international support. There also did not seem to be a bureaucratic snafu. So, was it the visual of Beijing accepting support from India, which Chinese officials and analysts sometimes dismiss as a less capable, even chaotic, neighbor? Was it the desire not to give India a soft power win, including with its neighbors? Was it because the flight involved a military transport aircraft procured from the U.S.? Was it retaliation for the temporary Indian detention of a Chinese ship bound for Pakistan due to a tip-off of dual-use items on board? Or was the reason Chinese unhappiness about Indian travel restrictions to and from China, or Indian export limits on certain medical products? Whatever the reason, China eventually gave the flight clearance, but only a week later and after much Indian negotiation. It was an early sign that the public health arena would not be immune from the competitive atmosphere prevailing between the two countries, and in the region as a whole. Subsequent events only bore that out. There has been considerable discussion about how countries’ perceptions of China would change due to the pandemic—at the beginning because of its mishandling, and then because of its recovery. This chapter argues that, rather than change perceptions, Beijing’s handling of COVID-19 increased the largely skeptical views of China that prevail in India, which had at least 29 million cases and over 385,000 deaths in India by mid-June 2021 (the 2nd and 3rd highest in the world respectively). This trend was further bolstered by the worst boundary crisis between the two countries since they fought a war in 1962. Together, the pandemic and the boundary crisis have ensured that the competitive and conflictual elements of the India-China relationship have been front and center over the last year. They have reinforced and accelerated concerns in India about China’s lack of transparency, its uncertain commitment to the rules-based order, as well as its growing influence in the Indo-Pacific and in international institutions. And they have demonstrated that despite Delhi and Beijing’s efforts to cooperate and to stabilize their relationship over the last two decades, it remains a fundamentally competitive one that can spill over into conflict. This chapter examines the impact of first the pandemic and then the boundary crisis on perceptions of China among the Indian government, establishment, and public. It proceeds to outline the consequences of these perceptions on Indian domestic policy, its partnerships with like-minded major and middle powers, and its counter-COVID activism. Finally, it considers China’s response, particularly to Indian policy changes.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Culture, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

384. Partnering for Africa’s digital future: Opportunities for the United States, South Korea, and India

Author:
Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Technological competition between the United States and China poses a special dilemma for African nations, whose prosperity depends on doing business with both Beijing and Washington. Although President Joe Biden is expected to assume a softer policy stance toward China—one couched in the language of human rights and liberal values, rather than power and strategic capabilities—competition will persist, driven by Beijing’s ambition to control the key technologies of the future. Rising US-China tensions may eventually force African nations to take sides. Speaking at the 2020 Munich Security Conference, then-US Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned allied nations that the use of Chinese company Huawei’s fifth-generation (5G) technology could compromise future intelligence cooperation with the United States. That’s a real problem for Africa because, together, Huawei and Chinese phone maker ZTE have built nearly 80 percent of Africa’s third-generation (3G) network infrastructure, while Huawei has built 70 percent of all fourth-generation (4G) networks and is competing to build all the future 5G networks in Africa. Chinese mobile-phone maker Transsion Holdings controls 64 percent of Africa’s feature phone market, and more than 40 percent of its smartphone market, and social media platforms such as TikTok and Vskit are fast becoming popular among Africa’s connected youth. For African leaders, disassociation from Beijing is becoming less and less feasible—or attractive. So too is closer alignment with the United States. Washington simply cannot match the large volumes of funding that Beijing extends to the continent. Recent conduct by leading US technology companies, including by Facebook and Google following the 2020 US presidential election, has additionally prompted a global pushback against US “big tech” that could make it harder for the US public and private sectors to compete and hold sway in African markets. Fortunately, there is a third way, both for African countries looking to avoid the crossfires of US-China competition, and for US policymakers seeking to bolster US competitiveness and influence in the region. The solution hinges on closer cooperation with emerging powers, notably South Korea and India, which have recently demonstrated their determination to better understand Africa’s challenges and prospects, and to figure out how their citizens could collaborate with African businesses and governments. For example, in his 2018 address to Uganda’s parliament, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined “ten guiding principles for India-Africa engagement” that center on cooperation in digitalization, clean-energy technologies, and cybersecurity—a marked detour from the policies that have historically shaped India-Africa ties. South Korea-Africa relations under President Moon Jae-In have also entered a new phase, with an emphasis on commercial linkages and people-to-people collaboration. Both South Korea and India are rapidly expanding their technological capabilities, and their foreign policies also align well with US interests in the region, and vis-à-vis China. For Washington, cooperation with these emerging powers could keep the door open to US influence in Africa, and could help ensure that Beijing’s strategic foothold in the continent does not deepen. For African countries, such partnerships could help bypass the “either-or-ism” implicit in US-China competition, while encouraging greater diversity and agency in their foreign affairs. There is real opportunity for African states to realize the potential that such alliances could create, and to become significant multilateral actors, able to leverage their distinct assets and pursue their own interests. This report explores how.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Business, Space, and Innovation
Political Geography:
India, Korea, and Africa

385. Reforming Patent Law: The Case of Covid‐​19

Author:
Michele Boldrin and David Levine
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Ashort time ago the debate over the proposal to temporarily waive intellectual property rights on Covid‐​19 vaccines was raging worldwide; and the suspension of those rights seemed imminent. Public attention reached its peak in May 2021 when the Biden administration endorsed the idea and committed itself to pursuing it under the World Trade Organization–World Intellectual Property Organization (WTO-WIPO) procedural rules for waiving intellectual property (IP) protection. By suspending IP rights, the administration sought to help low‐​income countries to start producing vaccines more quickly, reducing the rising and dramatic worldwide vaccine inequality.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Inequality, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Patents
Political Geography:
Africa, India, and Latin America

386. Impact of Colonial Institutions on Economic Growth and Development in India: Evidence from Night Lights Data

Author:
Priyaranjan Jha and Karan Talathi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Many cross‐​country studies find that quality of historical institutions is a major cause of disparity in present‐​day economic development as measured by income per capita. Due to the unavailability of data on a comprehensive measure of development such as per capita income, studies examining the role of historical institutions on development at the subnational levels use alternate proxies of economic well‐​being in their analysis. We examine the long‐​term effects of British colonial institutions on overall economic development within India using satellite night lights data.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Colonialism, Economic Policy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

387. Democratic Backsliding in India

Author:
Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Once considered the most populous democracy in the world, recent developments in India show that India is set on a path to losing its title. Analyses conducted by the Freedom House and the V-Dem Institute claiming that India’s democracy has lost its integrity is not a surprise to India-watchers observant of the recent trajectory of the Indian government. In this Issue Briefing, Neelanjan Sircar, Assistant Professor at Ashoka University, looks into the demotion of India’s status in various democratic indices. An investigation into Prime Minister Modi’s BJP government shows that the execution of anti-democratic laws and practices, prevalent throughout India’s history, has increased. The sedition law and the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act have been used to stifle voices of opposition against the government. Additionally, not only has the mass media been increasingly biased towards the BHP, but the government has resorted to internet (and phone data) shutdowns and harassing key opposition leaders when it senses threat. Amid such troubling developments, the author calls upon the necessity for India to refrain from using legal machinery and harassing critics of the government. If such practices continue, prospects for the restoration of democracy in India will remain bleak.
Topic:
Democracy, Narendra Modi, Democratic Backsliding, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

388. Water and Federalism: Working with States for Water Security

Author:
Srinivas Chokkakula, Avani Kapur, and Arkaja Singh
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India’s poor water security indicators are partly a result of the poor translation of federal spirit in governing its water resources. The limited scholarship on the subject recognizes the vacuum in federal water governance and the weak articulation of Centre’s role to work with states in pursuing India’s long-term development and security goals. Besides, coherent federal responses are critical to address the new governance challenges and emerging risks such as those linked to climate change, floods, dam safety, etc. Yet the national discourse on water federalism is dominated by interstate river water disputes. The study breaks new grounds by going beyond the narrow frame to engage comprehensively with the idea of water federalism in India. It explores the range of policy, institutional, legal and financial instruments for improved water governance. Conceptualised as the Centre’s leverage, the study investigates into these instruments to explore opportunities for the Centre to work with states for improved outcomes. Using mixed methods of qualitative and quantitative approaches, the study looks at the transforming Indian federal state from two contrasting viewpoints: the shifting stakes of the Centre and states in water resources development; and the converging forces of development goals and security concerns. The analysis is supported by case studies of Maharashtra, Punjab and Karnataka states revealing the diverse territorial imaginations and priorities of water resources development and, their implications for national water security. It also examines the experiences of central schemes through intergovernmental fiscal transfers and federal water governance practices internationally to incentivize states’ progressive pathways in water resources management. Identifying federal consensus-building about the Centre’s role and autonomous institutional architecture for data as the two foundational pillars, the study makes concrete recommendations to improve federal governance for long-term development and water security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Water, and Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

389. Lessons from the Covid Care Centers in West Bengal

Author:
Jishnu Das, Patrick Agte, Abhijit Chowdhury, Parthasarathi Mukherjee, and Satyarup Siddhanta
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
With the continuing emergence of Covid-19 variants, there is underlying concern in all countries, including India, that another surge will occur in the coming months. In case of a surge like that experienced with the Delta variant, a strategy that deserves further attention for the provision of care in rural areas is the use of off-hospital sites for patients who are not severely ill. We discuss one such effort from the state of West Bengal, the lessons from which may be relevant for the management of surge cases for generalized pandemic planning. In March 2021, India experienced a large surge in Covid cases and the spike in patients led to a shortage of hospital beds and oxygen cylinders around the country. Following a notification by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare that allowed organizations to set up care centers for the treatment of Covid-19 patients outside the hospital setting, the Liver Foundation and the Covid Care Network established eight Covid Care Centers in rural West Bengal. These centers were operational between May 2021 and September 2021, which coincided with the post-peak phase of the second Covid-19 wave in India. This report describes the project, summarizes the performance of the centers, and discusses the challenges faced during the project. We conclude that temporary facilities like the Covid Care Centers can be a viable option to provide urgent care during health emergencies.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Public Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

390. Strengthening India’s Ambient Air Quality Standard-Setting Process

Author:
Bhargav Krishna
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) provide the basis for assessing air quality nationally, determining pollution control priorities, and defining what we consider to be acceptable air quality to protect public health. They are framed and issued by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) under the Air Act (1981). In August 2021, the CPCB announced that a revision of the NAAQS would be undertaken over the next year under the leadership of faculty from IIT Kanpur, with representatives from other institutions. The wide-ranging remit for this committee includes revisiting the existing standards for criteria pollutants, potentially expanding the base of pollutants being measured, determining the effects of air pollution on human health and vegetation, designing, and setting up of monitoring networks, and reviewing the air quality index. These revisions to the NAAQS will serve to define the discussion around air pollution for the next decade in India. Making the standards more ambitious will be based on our understanding of risk associated with exposure and how that has evolved over time. It will have implications for how that risk is communicated by the government to citizens through the Air Quality Index (AQI) and will provide a basis for regulating certain point sources. More ambitious standards can also provide a useful benchmark against which to measure the progress of our initiatives to improve air quality. Given the import of these standards as a means of protecting public health, engaging in risk communication, and tracking progress against our air quality goals, it is essential that the process followed by the NAAQS revision committee is clearly laid out and guided by a series of fundamental principles. These include ensuring their relevance by committing to predefined periodic reviews, basing policy decisions on a solid foundation of science by engaging a broad range of experts, centering health in air quality policy making, and building trust with civil society and other stakeholders. Reinforcing institutional processes are a long-term challenge, and we recognize that significantly altering the parameters of work of a committee whose work is already underway may not be possible. The principles and actions laid out in this framing note can form the basis for future work in this area by the CPCB. In our recommendations, we also outline several immediate actions that can be taken by the CPCB and the NAAQS committee as they proceed with the revision of the NAAQS.
Topic:
Regulation, Public Health, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India