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1061. Understanding the Indian Voter

Author:
Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) historic victory in India’s 2014 general election prompted declarations of a watershed in the behavior of the Indian voter. Upon closer inspection, the reality is more nuanced. On some parameters, such as voting based on economic and ethnic considerations, there were indeed discernible changes. However, the empirical evidence suggests these shifts were well under way before 2014. In other areas—namely, support for regional parties, dynastic politicians, and candidates associated with criminal activity—contemporary voters demonstrated much greater continuity with the past.
Topic:
Democratization, Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

1062. Taxes: Price of Civilization or Tribute to Leviathan?

Author:
Lant Pritchett and Yamini Aiyar
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
There are two dominant narratives about taxation. In one, taxes are the “price we pay for a civilized society” (Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.). In this view taxes are not a necessary evil (as in the pairing of “death and taxes” as inevitable) but a positive good: more taxes buy more “civilization.” The other view is that taxes are “tribute to Leviathan”—a pure involuntary extraction from those engaged in economic production to those who control coercive power producing no reciprocal benefit. In this view taxes are a bane of the civilized. We consider the question of taxes as price versus tribute for contemporary India.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
India

1063. A Tale of Two Villages: Kinship Networks and Political Preference Change in Rural India

Author:
Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper develops a theory on how voters form and change political preferences in democratic developing world contexts. In the developing world, where state institutions are often weak, voters tend to be more focused on the competence and capacity of parties and candidates to deliver benefits. Such information may be difficult to ascertain, so voters must glean information from how candidates conduct themselves during the electoral campaign. Voters use kinship networks to develop more accurate preferences by collectively reasoning through newly available information on candidates. In order to demonstrate these claims, this study analyzes data collected on political preferences and kinship networks in two villages just before and after the campaign period during the 2011 Assembly election in the Indian state of West Bengal. The paper finds very strong kinship network effects on changes in issue preferences and vote choice over the course of the campaign and explains the results through qualitative work and a series of network autoregressive statistical models. In sum, this paper demonstrates how voters develop independent preferences and implement political change, even in low information contexts with weak human capital.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Self Determination, and Elections
Political Geography:
India

1064. Whose Side Are You On? Identifying the Distributive Preferences of Local Politicians in India

Author:
Mark Schneider and Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The literature on decentralized public programs suggests that errors in the targeting of anti-poverty programs are rooted in the capture of these programs by local elites or local politicians. Consistent with the literature on moral economy in political science and experimental economics, we argue that voters in contexts of rural poverty prefer local leaders who target subsistence benefits to the poor. In a high information village context, where voters and leaders know each other, we argue that local elections lead to the selection of local leaders with pro-poor preferences over the distribution of these benefits. We show this with a novel theory of local politicians’ social preferences. We test our theory with unique data from a behavioral measure, conducted in the context of a lottery with a modest cash prize in rural India, that captures a scenario in which local leaders have full discretion and anonymity over allocation among members of their rural communities. We analyze our data using a novel estimation strategy that takes the characteristics of the pool of potential beneficiaries into account in decisions over allocation under a budget constraint. We find that local leaders have strong preferences for targeting the poor, and particularly those they believe supported them politically in the past. This article suggests that free and fair elections at the local level can powerfully encourage pro-poor targeting even in contexts of weak institutions and pervasive poverty. It also makes a fundamental contribution to research on distributive politics by challenging research in this area to demonstrate the effect of electoral strategies and other distortions on allocation relative to local leaders’ baseline distributive preferences.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Politics, Political Theory, and Elections
Political Geography:
India

1065. Nuclear-Armed Submarines in Indo-Pacific Asia: Stabiliser or Menace?

Author:
Brendan Thomas- Noone and Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
India and China, rising powers in the Indo-Pacific, are moving from the test and design phase of sea-based nuclear weapon platforms to active deployment. In the long-term, these new ballistic missile-carrying nuclear submarines could lead to greater strategic stability in the region. But only once systems that ensure their safe and credible operation are put in place. The deployment of these weapons will also exacerbate existing regional tensions over the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and drive the deployment of ballistic missile defence systems and enhanced anti-submarine warfare capabilities in the region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Power Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China and India

1066. Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India

Author:
Sryia Iyer and Anand Shrivastava
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The effect of ethnic violence on electoral results provides useful insights into voter behaviour and the incentives for political parties in democratic societies. The effect of ethnic violence on electoral results provides useful insights into voter behaviour and the incentives for political parties in democratic societies. Religious riots have claimed more than 14,000 lives in India since 1950. We study the effect of Hindu-Muslim riots on election results in India. We combine data on riots with electoral data on state legislature elections and control variables on demographics and public goods provision to construct a unique panel data set for 16 large states in India over a 25 year period commencing in 1977. We use a new instrument that draws upon the random variation in the day of the week that important Hindu festivals fall on in each year to isolate the causal effect of riots on electoral results. We find that riots occurring in the year preceding an election increase the vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the election. We find suggestive evidence that communal polarisation is the likely mechanism driving our results.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Minorities, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Exclusion
Political Geography:
India and Asia

1067. Networks and Misallocation: Insurance, Migration, and the Rural-Urban Wage Gap

Author:
Kaivan Munshi and Mark Rosenzweig
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We provide an explanation for the large spatial wage disparities and low male migration in India based on the trade-off between consumption-smoothing, provided by caste-based rural insurance networks, and the income-gains from migration. We provide an explanation for the large spatial wage disparities and low male migration in India based on the trade-off between consumption-smoothing, provided by caste-based rural insurance networks, and the income-gains from migration. Our theory generates two key empirically-verified predictions: (i) males in relatively wealthy households within a caste who benefit less from the redistributive (surplus- maximizing) network will be more likely to migrate, and (ii) males in households facing greater rural income-risk (who benefit more from the insurance network) migrate less. Structural estimates show that small improvements in formal insurance decrease the spatial misallocation of labor by substantially increasing migration.
Topic:
Migration, Income Inequality, Urban, Rural, Caste, Insurance, Redistribution, Wage Growth, and Wealth
Political Geography:
India and Asia

1068. Defence and India’s private sector

Author:
Sameer Patil
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pro-actively pursued India’s agenda of modernising and indigenising its defence sector by clearing several long-pending demands of the Indian military for equipment. India’s rapidly-obsolescing military hardware has made this push imperative—the ageing of the hardware has been prominently highlighted by a string of naval accidents in the last two years and the rapidly depleting strength of the air force squadron, with the de-induction of old aircraft and delays in inducting replacements. Externally, raging border disputes with China and Pakistan, and the growing presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean region, continue to be threats that call for an updating of the Indian defence sector.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Private Sector, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and India

1069. What’s Missing in the Fight Against Early and Child Marriage: Insights from India

Author:
Margaret Greene and Timi Gerson
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Jewish World Service (AJWS)
Abstract:
This brief, What’s Missing in the Fight Against Early and Child Marriage: Insights from India, summarizes the factors causing and contributing to ECM in India. In addition to highlighting relevant research findings, this report draws on the knowledge and experiences of local organizations that AJWS supports in the country— organizations committed to empowering young women and girls and expanding their opportunities and choices. Finally, this report offers policy recommendations to help guide the United States government’s contributions to the worldwide effort to end early and child marriage.
Topic:
Children, Child Marriage, Humanitarian Crisis, and Marriage
Political Geography:
India and Asia

1070. Working With a Rising India

Author:
Charles R. Kayne, Joseph S. Nye Jr., and Alyssa Ayres
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
“A rising India offers one of the most substantial opportunities to advance American national interests over the next two decades,” asserts a new Independent Task Force report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Working With a Rising India: A Joint Venture for the New Century. Over the past ten years, India, the world's largest democracy, has lifted more than 130 million people out of poverty. The country has rebounded from a recent economic growth slump, surpassing China this year to become the world's fastest-growing major economy. “If India can maintain its current growth rate, let alone attain sustained double digits, it has the potential over the next two to three decades to follow China on the path to becoming another $10 trillion economy,” notes the Task Force. With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's prioritization of economic growth and foreign policy revitalization, the country now has a window of opportunity to either make the necessary reforms or risk being left behind. “[India] will have to decide whether it wants to become a major part of global trade flows and deeply integrated into global supply chains. Doing so would boost India's efforts to grow its manufacturing sector and its economy; choosing not to will make that ambition harder to achieve.” Because India does not seek an alliance with the United States and closely guards its policy independence, U.S.-India relations will not resemble those Washington has with its conventional allies. For that reason, the Task Force recommends that “U.S. policymakers [should] explicitly emphasize a ‘joint-venture’ model for U.S.-India relations, focused on a slate of shared pursuits on which interests converge—and with clear mechanisms for coordinating and managing the known and expected disagreements.” The bipartisan Task Force is chaired by Charles R. Kaye, co-chief executive officer of the private equity firm Warburg Pincus and former chairman of the U.S.-India Business Council, and Joseph S. Nye Jr., distinguished service professor and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. Directed by CFR Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Alyssa Ayres, the Task Force is composed of sixteen prominent experts from government, academic, nonprofit, and other sectors.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
India, Asia, North America, and United States of America