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91. Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2014 (Volume 1 : Europe centrale et orientale)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Jacques Rupnik, Céline Bayou, Edith Lhomel, and Catherine Samary
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Le lecteur ne s’étonnera pas de ce que, en 2014, le conflit en Ukraine soit au cœur des préoccupations des pays d'Europe centrale, orientale et de l'Eurasie, même si ses incidences sont diversement ressenties selon les régions considérées. Les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale sont divisés dans leur appréhension politique des événements, et leurs économies ne sont pas directement concernées par les retombées du conflit en Ukraine. On pouvait craindre en revanche qu’elles subissent l’atonie de la zone euro, et son incapacité à retrouver des taux de croissance stimulant la demande extérieure. Cependant – et c’est là une heureuse surprise –, plusieurs d’entre elles ont trouvé la parade en tirant parti des fonds que l’Union européenne leur destine généreusement pour relancer leur demande domestique. Et les effets positifs de cette tactique portent des fruits spectaculaires, d’autant qu’elle se combine avec les incidences de la faible hausse des prix sur le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs. Il y a là des enseignements à tirer pour la politique économique de l’Europe Occidentale ! Les pays de l’espace eurasiatique sont eux directement aux prises avec les développements du conflit ukrainien. Les incidences en sont multiples : les sanctions et contre-sanctions entre la Russie et l’Union européenne influent grandement sur les économies périphériques, de grands projets comme le gazoduc South Stream sont annulés, les relations des pays d’Asie centrale et du Caucase avec l’Union européenne sont observées avec vigilance par la Russie… La crise ukrainienne, c’est un fait, porte son ombre sur le grand projet de Vladimir Poutine d’instauration d’une Union économique eurasiatique.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, War, Diaspora, Finance, Europeanization, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Moldova, Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Kosovo, Estonia, Serbia, Romania, Macedonia, Hungary, Albania, Croatia, Latvia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Central Europe, Slovenia, Slovakia, and European Union

92. Forecasting Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski and Maciej Krzak
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, and Czech Republic

93. True and false remedies for long time unemployment in Visegrad countries

Author:
Ágota Scharle
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Two in ten working age adults have been out of work for over a year in Visegrad economies and long term joblessness is especially high among the uneducated. The employment disadvantage of uneducated workers tends to be larger than in Western European countries, and is especially grievous in Hungary, where a relatively large share of the labour force has only completed primary school. The build-up of long term joblessnes may take its toll both on the individual and the economy. Beside the loss of human capital and potentially harmful effects on health and mental health, the lower job search intensity of the long term unemployed may lead to weaker wage adjustment and slower economic recovery. Long term non-employment also increases poverty and social exclusion, which may further constrain economic growth. Reducing long term unemployment by activating the unemployed, increasing the education level or preventing early retirement could potentially increase the total employment rateby 2-3 % points in the Visegrad countries.
Topic:
Social Policy, Human Capital, Unemployment, Social Services, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Hungary

94. The Race Equality Directive: A Shadow Report

Author:
Eefje de Kroon
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The Race Equality Directive: A Shadow Report collects lessons learned from the implementation of the Race Equality Directive in nine European Union member states. The Race Equality Directive is a piece of legislation adopted in 2000 by the Council of Ministers of the European Union implementing the principle of equality for all irrespective of racial or ethnic origin. The directive comes under review at the end of 2013, 10 years after its entry into force. The report includes data on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Annex I contains summaries of developments in each of these member states. The report identifies trends in the challenges facing the countries examined, examples of successful or problematic implementation, and includes recommendations for improving effective implementation. Challenges to the implementation of the Race Equality Directive include: lack of disaggregated data needed to implement parts of this legislation and evaluate its effectiveness; unclear identification of proxy categories that can be used to detect discrimination on the ground of racial and ethnic origin; problems that impede effective access to and use of judicial (individual or collective) redress against discrimination; hindrances to alternative forms of individual (or collective) redress, through the equality bodies. Analysis is based on two sources of data: country reports by specialized international monitoring bodies (excerpts of these are contained in Annex II) and data generated through a short questionnaire (in Annex III) completed by independent experts and subject matter experts within the Open Society Foundations.
Topic:
Race, Law, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Equality
Political Geography:
Greece, France, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Czech Republic

95. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2013 (Volume 1 : Europe centrale et orientale)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Hélène Clément-Pitiot, Matthieu Combe, Vitaly Denysyuk, and Raphaël Jozan
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Dans le Tableau de bord d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie de 2009, nous écrivions que les pays de l’Europe centrale et orientale étaient « touchés mais pas coulés » par la crise mondiale. Quatre ans après, ce diagnostic est toujours valable. Si l’Union européenne reste pour eux un idéal et si l’adhésion à cette union demeure un projet clairement balisé pour les Etats qui n’en sont pas encore membres, celle-ci, engluée dans ses contradictions, paraît trop souvent absente, silencieuse. Aux populations qui lui demandent un meilleur niveau de vie et plus de justice sociale, elle répond par des exigences de réformes et d’austérité et alimente ainsi dangereusement leurs désenchantements. Savoir leur répondre, c’est le défi majeur de l’Union européenne aujourd’hui. Les pays de l’Eurasie, s’ils sont moins directement touchés par la crise de la zone euro et conservent, en conséquence, une croissance nettement plus élevée, ont d’autres préoccupations. Fortement sollicités par la Russie qui entend consolider sa zone d’influence avec la concrétisation de l’Union économique eurasiatique, ils sont aussi l’objet de l’attraction qu’exerce sur eux l’Union européenne – comme en témoignent éloquemment les évènements survenus en Ukraine – et, de plus en plus, la Chine. Cet espace est donc actuellement dans une recomposition qui conditionne les possibilités de son développement.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Markets, Nationalism, Natural Resources, European Union, Finance, Multilateralism, Europeanization, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Poland, Lithuania, Kosovo, Estonia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, Macedonia, Hungary, Albania, Croatia, Latvia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Western Europe, Slovenia, Slovakia, European Union, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

96. The European Commission's Policy Towards the Southern Gas Corridor: Between National Interests and Economic Fundamentals

Author:
Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union launched the ambitious Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the goal of enhancing the security of its energy supply. The corridor - a virtual transit route running from the gas-rich Caspian basin to the EU while bypassing Russian soil - is meant to increase diversification of the EU's supplier and transit countries. While various projects have been proposed to give life to the corridor, the European Commission has given particular support to the realisation of Nabucco, a 3,893km pipeline running from Turkey to the European gas hub of Baumgarten in Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. The Commission's choice is, however, flawed in several respects, as it fails to take account of key factors, such as the diverging, and sometimes conflicting, interests of individual EU member states, the geopolitical challenges of the Caspian basin, and the commercial constraints on Nabucco. This short-sighted approach has hindered the efficient development of the Southern Gas Corridor and weakened the EU's energy policy.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria

97. Aid allocation of the emerging Central and Eastern European donors

Author:
Balázs Szent-Iványi
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:
Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:
In the past decade, a number of Central and Eastern European countries have emerged as new donors of foreign aid. Although these countries already had certain forms of development-related cooperation with Third World countries during the Cold War, the pre-1989 experiences are difficult to compare with their current, (re-)emerging aid policies. There is a clear pressure, related mostly to membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU), for these new donors to align themselves with the norms and principles of the international development aid regime. Many special characteristics are observable, however, in the Central and Eastern European donors, which predict that they will behave differently than the members of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC), the 'club' of advanced donor countries. In part, this may be related to the fact that their foreign aid policies are still in their infancy, but it is also undeniable that their motivations for giving aid are somewhat different than those of the Western donors. It is logical to assume that the consequences of these different motivations are identifiable in the quality and allocation of aid provided by the emerging donors.
Topic:
Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia

98. Linking an EU emission reduction target beyond 20 % to energy security in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, Kai-Olaf Lang, and Martin Kremer
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Central and Eastern European Member States are expected to play a key role in the debate around future EU climate policy, including the potential move beyond a 20% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target by 2020. Hungary and Poland hold the rotating EU Presidency in 2011, and energy security has been placed as a priority issue on both Presidency agendas. At the same time, energy security is a key issue in climate policy, particularly for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States. Hungary's ambassador for Energy Security, Mihaly Bayer, made the link explicit, saying “if we can settle energy security then we can deal with climate change more calmly”. It is important to gain an understanding of the actual underpinnings of the energy security debate in CEE, and of the impact of a more stringent 2020 reduction target for this region.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Hungary

99. Inward FDI in Portugal and its policy context, 2011

Author:
Vitor Corado Simões and Rui Manuel Cartaxo
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Portugal's performance in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) during the economic and financial crisis in 2009 was poor, below the low figures that it had already recorded in the previous couple of years, although Portugal did not record negative FDI inflows like competing countries such as Ireland (in 2008) and Hungary (in 2009). The country's difficulties in attracting IFDI are, however, structural. The “golden” years of the early 1990s, when Portugal emerged as an attractive and fashionable location, are past. The country's IFDI performance throughout the first decade of the 21st century was, in general, weak. In 2009, Spain, France and Brazil were the main sources of I FDI in Portugal. In spite of the Government's commitment to attracting IFDI, policy design and implementation have fallen short in the increasingly fierce competition for international investment.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Hungary, Portugal, and Ireland

100. Table of Contents Articles

Author:
Péter Balázs
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
Hungary assumed the EU Council presidency as the third "new" EU member state after Slovenia and the Czech Republic, but the first in a new post-Lisbon institutional regime. The article provides an overview of the political and operational performance of the first-ever Hungarian EU presidency and strives to evaluate the overall impact this had on the image Hungary has, primarily in the EU.
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary