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Begin New Search Topic Development Political Geography Horn of Africa

1. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

2. The need for a ‘peace continuum’ approach to climate security

Author:
Louise Wiuff Moe
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change is a priority area in European and broader Western initiatives for global security, with a significant focus on Africa. This DIIS Working Paper argues that advancing the climate security agenda requires approaches that integrate climate adaptation and finance into a ‘peace continuum’, spanning prevention, peacebuilding, and development. The paper shows where the current climate security-agenda falls short, in particular regarding climate finance and the prioritisation of conflict-affected contexts. It asserts that addressing these gaps is essential both for climate justice and for fostering partnerships in Africa amid growing global geopolitical competition. Drawing on insights from Africa’s Horn, the paper also discusses concrete opportunities for advancing a ‘peace continuum' approach to climate security. Specifically, it underscores the importance of strategic engagement and accessible, conflict-sensitive climate finance, notwithstanding challenges posed by institutional fragmentation and conflict. Recommendations are supported by examples of UN, AU and IGAD initiatives and case studies from Somalia and Somaliland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Peace, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Denmark, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa

3. The European Union in a crowded Horn of Africa

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the engagement of the European Union (EU) in the Horn of Africa, in light of the growing regional presence of other foreign actors, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, China, and Russia. Although the EU has defined the Horn as a “geo-strategic priority”, the bloc’s approach to the region is not yet well defined. The EU’s engagement would benefit from a clearer definition of the EU’s interests and objectives in the region in a clear order of priority. This could then inform a reflection on which tools can be best mobilized to achieve such interests. In this regard, the EU’s development cooperation efforts are an important added value that the bloc brings to the region, which may be leveraged more strategically to achieve the EU’s objectives.The growing presence of other foreign actors in the Horn has important implications not only for the Horn itself, but also for the EU’s regional engagement. When the interests of some of these actors overlap with those of the EU, a degree of cooperation would be beneficial for all sides. The domains of infrastructure development and humanitarian aid offer a meaningful entry point to explore such cooperation. In other instances, on the other hand, the EU may need to push back on the activities of other foreign actors when they directly run against the bloc’s interests. Overall, however, the EU should be careful not to allow geopolitical considerations to guide its approach towards the region. Rather than being preoccupied with keeping the Horn’s stakeholders outside of the orbit of its geopolitical rivals, the EU should focus on deepening ties with (state or non-state) actors that share its own interests and values – an approach that can lead to more reliable partnerships that deliver on the EU’s interests in the longer term.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe and Horn of Africa

4. Estados Unidos y África. Historia de una no-política

Author:
Pablo Rey-García and Pedro Rivas Nieto
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
En este artículo se estudian las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y África, desde los puntos de vista económico, político y de seguridad. Son, estos tres campos, interdependientes, pero a la vez enormemente dinámicos, tanto por la inercia política estadounidense, como por los condicionantes propios de África (déficit en desarrollo, pobreza, inseguridad o inestabilidad política) como por el contexto internacional. En este último aspecto, cobra especial relevancia la invasión rusa de Ucrania o la emergencia de la ambición militar China, pues ambos países compiten con Estados Unidos por tener una mejor posición en el continente africano.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Asia, North America, Sahel, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

5. Opportunities for Danish stabilisation policy to engage with climate- and livelihood-related conflict: New approaches to fragility in the Horn of Africa and Sahel

Author:
Peer Schouten
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa and the Sahel are among the most fragile regions in the world: poor, lacking basic infrastructure and state presence across much of their respective territories, and both form hotbeds of conflict and political instability compounded by climate change. This DIIS Working Paper focuses on identifying evolving notions of fragility that could strengthen Danish stabilisation efforts in the Horn and Sahel. It foregrounds notions of fragility that move away from a focus on strong state institutions towards the adaptive capacities of populations in the hinterlands of the Horn and the Sahel to deal with conflict and climate variability. The paper gives an overview of this rapidly evolving field and distils key insights, challenges and future options by exploring the question, how can we support people in the Sahel and Horn to re-establish their responsibility for their respective territories and the management of their natural resources? The paper addresses this question by exploring the implications of recent climate change and livelihoods research on how we approach fragility and, by extension, stabilisation. On the basis of such research, the Working Paper advocates a move away from a sector-based understanding of fragility towards a way of working that is more in line with contextual realities, alongside the ‘comprehensive approach’ to stabilisation that Denmark promotes. The key message is that, programmatically, Danish stabilisation efforts across both regions could benefit from a more explicit focus on supporting the variability that dominant livelihood strategies require and that need to be considered if sustainable security and development outcomes are to be achieved. Failing to do this will only serve to marginalise key communities and may drive them further into the arms of radical groups.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Radicalization, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Denmark, and Horn of Africa

6. The Future Africans Want: When Optimism Is Power

Author:
E. Gyimah-Boadi and Joseph Asunka
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The middle of a pandemic that has stopped the world in its tracks may seem like a surprising time to focus our attention on Africa’s future. Covid-19 has triggered lockdowns and school closures, caused job losses, postponed elections (1) and forced us to fix our gaze on the here and now: on staying healthy today, on putting food on the table today, on protecting people’s rights and dignity today. However, a shock like this pandemic also creates an imperative for strategic foresight. As Africa prepares for a post-Covid world, we must take stock of people’s lived experiences and expectations if we are to build back better. What are Africans’ aspirations for their lives and those of their children? How are they thinking about the future and what can they do to shape it? What assets are citizens willing to invest to further their collective ambitions, and how can governments and development actors best harness them? This policy Brief taps into Afrobarometer (2) survey data to map people’s aspirations for the next decade and their willingness to take action to achieve their goals (detailed information on Afrobarometer surveys and methods can be found in endnote 2). Rather than using abstract scenarios or models to build a vision of the future, we asked people directly where they want to go and how they think they can get there (3). Our analysis is grounded in the perspectives of ordinary citizens, their views on the interactions they have with their governments and their reports of the actions they take to participate in policy processes and influence their governments, defined as ‘citizen engagement’. The responses to the surveys show that Africans’ aspirations go well beyond economic and social security: they evince a desire for self-sufficiency and autonomy as well as democratic, accountable and responsive governance. Citizens are largely ready and willing to take action and even to put their own financial resources into the pot in order to realise their ambitions. Examples abound of citizens joining together to do everything: from fighting corruption in the management of local natural resources in Ghana (4), to initiating local awareness-raising and relief campaigns in response to Covid-19 in Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa and South Sudan. (5) Yet too often, governments resist and fail to listen to citizen voices, respond to popular expectations and build the governance systems their people demand. This leaves an enormous resource— the energy and will of millions of citizens — untapped, a luxury that African governments cannot afford as they look to the future and consider how to achieve the ambitious targets of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. If they are to make effective use of their people’s assets, decision-makers will need to increasingly engage with their publics by opening doors to information sharing and real collaboration. By expanding the space for African voice and agency in all arenas, from problem-solving to policymaking, the power of citizen actions can be unleashed across the continent. In this opening Brief of the Imagine Africa series, we consider what Africans want their future to look like 10 years down the road and then review current trends in what they say they are getting. The growing gap between ambition and reality discussed in the second and third sections highlights the need for changes in how governments and citizens interact. The fourth section showcases what African citizens can bring to the table in terms of resources, energy, activism and engagement, but also reveals that African governments are not always receptive to these inputs. We conclude with a discussion of what African decision-makers and international supporters can do to more effectively leverage the power of citizen action and engagement.
Topic:
Development, Domestic Policy, COVID-19, and Future
Political Geography:
Africa, Sahel, Horn of Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa

7. Gulf State Rivalries in the Horn of Africa: Time for a Red Sea Policy?

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Finn Stepputat
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
States in the Arabian Gulf are cultivating long-term economic and political partnerships with authorities in the Horn of Africa. Both regions are unstable, and their union has significant security implications. Danish and EU partners’ policies should reflect this. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Economic integration: encourage the potential of current Gulf-led infrastructural developments by helping enhance regional trade among states in the Horn of Africa. ■ Red Sea Forum: promote interregional political dialogue by supporting the development of a diplomatic track between states in the Gulf and the Horn of Africa respectively. ■ Policy development: create a joint Red Sea sub-focus integrating existing policy commitments in each region.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Gulf Nations, Horn of Africa, and Red Sea