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141. The Qatari Sanctions Episode

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Bahrain announced that they were cutting diplomatic ties with and imposing sanctions on Qatar. The most formidable of these sanctions was a comprehensive blockade of Qatar, which involved the closure of the land border between Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well as banning Qatari planes from entering these countries’airspace. The coalition then embarked on a limited program of sanctions advocacy, seeking US, European, East Asian, and other regional support for their efforts. Nearly three years after the crisis began, Qatar’s economic indicators all point to the positive and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has broadly concluded that the Qatari economy is structurally sound. Qatar faces some of the same issues and tensions that other hydrocarbon-dependent economies experience, but is in a comparatively strong position, particularly as relates to its future sanctions resilience as will be described below. This paper, part of the broader sanctions work from the Energy Security program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, sets aside whether the cause of the Qatari dispute with its neighbors justified the use of sanctions and examines the significance of the execution of those sanctions. Qatar’s experience is not replicable in many contexts, given its sizable advantages in available resources. Nonetheless, how the country responded to and—in this paper’s assessment—effectively defeated the sanctions campaign mounted against it points to several lessons about the design and implementation of sanctions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Gulf Nations, and UAE

142. The Quest to Launch Regional Integration Processes in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Christian Koch and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Given the consequences that security issues yield for the Middle East and beyond and in spite of the failures to date, a regional security process where stakeholders can engage with one another remains a relevant and timely approach, which would be needed to move out of the region’s current cycle of instability. Based on the ongoing Tafahum project, a first step is to establish a shared understanding of regional security issues and what they entail before taking steps towards building a security “architecture” or “system”. In addition, regional cooperation must be framed around both conceptual and operational baskets. A broad agreement on principles of conduct, a focus on regional economic development and the development of civil society interactions are seen as essential elements around which such baskets can be put together.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Political stability, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

143. The Future of Saudi Arabia and Its Crown Prince: A Book Talk with Ben Hubbard and Susanne Koelbl

Author:
Susanne Koelbl, Deborah Amos, and Ben Hubbard
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is a country in the midst of dramatic change. The fundamental pillars of its economic and social institutions have been upended, and a young generation is moving to the foreground. At the head of this dramatic shift is Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, known as MBS, who since 2015 has branded himself as a modern reformer and the face of a new generation of Saudi leadership. But who is the real MBS: the man who will lead Saudi Arabia into the 21st Century, or a dictator known for his retaliatory actions against members of the royal family and brutal restrictions on human rights? In the wake of the Khashoggi murder and in the midst of a war in Yemen, detention and torture of women’s rights activists, and repeated efforts to consolidate his own power, it is unclear to what extent bin Salman’s actions are driven by a strategy. Meanwhile, an increasingly connected Saudi population is confronting traditions and modernization initiatives which may open new conversations. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a book talk with two acclaimed journalists whose works draw from firsthand experience in Saudi Arabia to examine the rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the changing nature of Saudi society in the decade of Vision 2030. Ben Hubbard and Susanne Koelbl will be joined in conversation with Deborah Amos to explore the current and future obstacles facing reform and progress in Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

144. Migrant Workers in the Gulf: Unseen Struggles and Prospects for Reform

Author:
Gerald Feierstein, Rima Sabban, and Hiba Zayadin
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
As COVID-19 spreads throughout the Middle East and civil wars continue, already fragile human rights protections are increasingly under threat. COVID-19 puts migrants and minority communities at increasing risk due to structural inequalities, and activist movements are losing crucial visibility and the ability to mobilize and gather in public. Meanwhile, the impacts of the virus expose existing injustices faced by detainees, women, and occupied communities. How are social movements in Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq adapting to changing dynamics as they confront pandemic-related shutdowns and existing internet restrictions? How do inequalities in the region’s legal systems prevent women from exercising personal rights, as domestic violence rates surge worldwide? What are the unique challenges faced by migrant workers, refugees, and IDPs? In countries with ongoing conflicts, what are the prospects for advocating for greater rights for detainees and prisoners of conscience?
Topic:
Labor Issues, Reform, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

145. The Gulf States and Israel after the Abraham Accords

Author:
Fatiha Dazi-Heni
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Following Israel’s signing of the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain, many questions arise as to the impact that the Accords will have on the different GCC countries. This paper seeks to outline the historical context surrounding the accords and provide an analysis of the way the different GCC countries have so far approached this new “normalization” of relations with Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

146. Houthi Offensive in Marib Represents Dual Threat to Yemeni Government

Author:
Brian M. Perkins
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The oil-rich governorate of Marib has increasingly become the focal point of the war in Yemen as the Houthis’ determination to take control of the strategic governorate has intensified over the past several months. Marib is the last remaining stronghold in the north for Yemen’s internationally recognized government and is a key strategic territory not only due to its oil fields, but also because it could set the stage for the Houthis to eventually move into key southern governorates, where fractures between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and pro-government forces show no signs of abating. A Houthi success in Marib would mark a critical tipping point in the war and a major defeat for the government and Saudi coalition, leaving them essentially hemmed in by the Houthis on one side and the Southern Transitional Council on the other. In such a scenario, the Saudi coalition and the Yemeni government would be left with few options other than negotiating from a position of considerable weakness or dragging the losing fight on for far longer than the coalition likely has the will for.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Yemen and Gulf Nations

147. Yemen’s War Tests Oman’s Neutrality: Focusing on the Saudi Footprint in al-Mahra

Author:
Michael Horton
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Neutrality is one of Oman’s greatest assets. Under the leadership of the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Oman successfully navigated the fall of the Shah in Iran, the Cold War and its end, the U.S.-led War on Terror, and the Arab Spring. Through all these global and region shape events, Oman has maintained its neutrality and independence. Oman, for example, maintains longstanding relationships with the United States and Great Britain while, at the same time, it enjoys constructive relations with Iran. Moreover, although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are aligned against Iran, Qatar, and Turkey, Oman has managed to work with all of these countries to address regional issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Non State Actors, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Gulf Nations

148. Qatar Without Tamim Sudden Succession Essay Series

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, twelfth in the series, explores Qatar, known historically as a refuge for “banished leaders, fleeing criminals, exiled religious figures, and other waifs and strays.” But the Gulf nation’s neighbors have long bridled at its independent streak, as shown by the 2017 rift with Saudi Arabia and three other regional states. The break—spurred by a perception of Qatari support for terrorism, closeness to Iran, and a range of other complaints—remains unresolved today, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Qatar and Gulf Nations

149. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has forced cooperation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which were in conflict within the GCC. At the same time, the UAE took advantage of other countries’ need for support in countering COVID-19 to strengthen relations with China, Iran, and Syria, among others. The UAE’s activity emphasizes its ambition for domination of the region, which may lead to a new dispute within the GCC between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations

150. Projecting Stability to the South: NATO’s other challenge

Author:
Chloe Berger
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In the spring of 2020, the Atlantic Alliance’s “large pe- riphery” to the South, which extends from the Sahel to the Asian borders of the Arabian Gulf, remains in a state of dangerous instability. The health and con- tainment measures taken by the authorities against the COVID-19 crisis have put popular claims to rest. The case of Lebanon shows, however, that the urgency of the pandemic has not made the demands of the pop- ulation disappear. Beyond managing the health crisis, there is no doubt that the future of the region’s lead- erships1 will largely depend on their ability to miti- gate both the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the political ones. In this “broader MENA” region, whose confines and internal cohesion are unstable, the challenges are ever more complex. Despite the relative consensus between NATO and its Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) and Is- tanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) partners on the deep-rooted causes of the structural instability, the po- tential solutions are much debated. NATO’s “Project- ing Stability” concept raises as many questions with the partners, as it does within the Alliance, since a desired end-state has yet to be defined. While all efforts con- tributing to an increase in stability are a priori welcome, the Alliance and its partners must agree on the conditions of stability in order to identify and implement effective means suited to the local context.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, Asia, North America, and Gulf Nations