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11. The Greek Economy a Decade Later – Constantinos Michalopoulos

Author:
Constantine Michalopoulos
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Greek economy has made a remarkable comeback from a decade ago, to the point that the Economist rated it to have performed the best in the OECD in 2023. This paper reviews Greek economic performance over the last ten years and identifies a number of major challenges that remain, despite the progress made. The last part presents an action plan for the next decade in four priority areas: the labor market, social services, migration and savings-investment. In these areas, reforms are urgently needed, if Greece is to achieve sustainable and equitable growth. The analysis concludes that, because of the continued debt burden, successful reforms will require the Greek government to maintain a delicate and difficult balance between fiscal sustainability and taking the necessary measures to support green and inclusive growth.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Fiscal Policy, Labor Market, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

12. The CAP between a rock and a hard place: its new challenges and uncertain prospects

Author:
Tassos Haniotis
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is currently at a crossroads of a changing world environment which impacts demand (food inflation), supply (energy and input costs) and agri-food trade (geostrategic tensions). EU policies have to address the conundrum of having to simultaneously contribute to mitigating climate change and contributing to food security by accepting that both are global problems and require global solutions. CAP ongoing policy orientation aims at increasing its environmental performance while retaining its economic and social achievements, but excessive targets set by the Farm to Fork Strategy and the impact of changing market conditions brought tensions in the debate between on food security and climate action with respect to priorities on primary agriculture. Higher food costs increasing income inequalities put households in the developed world at a risk of changes in consumer behaviour that are driven by forces exogenous to their tastes and preferences. Addressing misperceptions about the role of productivity, science and trade will impact on how the EU assesses, in a more balanced way and addresses its strengths and weaknesses in the field of agriculture. Despite clear progress of Greek agriculture in recent years three persistent weaknesses of Greek agriculture relate to an uneven and untargeted distribution of direct payments the underestimation of the role of extensive livestock or the absence of a functioning Farm Advisory System.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Food Security, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

13. The Letta and Draghi Reports: The Only Way to Go, Despite the Hurdles

Author:
Alekos Kritikos
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Letta and Draghi reports begin with the same realisation, though they formulate it differently: that the international geopolitical environment has changed dramatically and that the EU must take immediate action as a result. The Letta report’s take-home message is that the Single Market must be transformed into something “much more than just a market”. Thus, research, innovation and education need to be integrated into its core, as a “fifth freedom”, and the Single Market extended to include the telecommunications, energy, financial services and defence sectors. There is fear at the heart of the Draghi report, fear of the “existential challenge” confronting the EU, which will require an extra €800 billion a year in investment. The report’s proposals are articulated around five major horizontal policies: closing the innovation gap, decarbonising the economy and making it more competitive, strengthening security and the defence sector and reducing dependencies in this area, financing investment, and strengthening EU governance. The Letta and Draghi reports agree on both the fields where intervention is required and the form such intervention should take. And while they differ in terms of the competition—and, still more, cohesion—policy they prescribe, they do so constructively while their proposals complement one another. In relation to Greece, the proposals made in both reports with respect to the defence industry, to reducing energy costs, and to the provision of generous funding for additional investment through —inter alia—joint borrowing, are of the utmost importance. No serious disagreement has been voiced with respect to the proposals made in the Letta and Draghi reports, apart from the predictable German reaction to additional funding and new joint borrowing, coupled with unfounded criticism of the proposals as ‘unfeasible’. The “New European Agreement on Competitiveness” adopted in Budapest on 8 November is a critical development, given that it adopts the bulk of the key approaches contained in the Letta and Draghi reports, and sets specific milestones for some, as well. The two reports stress that, even if certain recent developments around the world cannot be considered favourable for the EU (political crisis in Germany, economic problems in France, Trump’s election in the US), Europe still has the “weapons” it needs to reverse the situation. And while the Budapest summit decision may not have gone as far as the situation demands, it still adopted the bulk of the proposals made in the two reports, making it crystal clear that the European Union has taken the need to regain the initiative fully on board.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

14. The Evolution of Public Opinion in Greece and Turkey (2021-2023): Dynamics and Shifts in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Evren Balta and Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
ELIAMEP joined forces with IPC with the support of DiaNEOsis to organize the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series. Five rounds of surveys were conducted concurrently in both countries, exploring cooperation, conflict, nationalism, perceptions, multilateral institutions, and societal linkages. A strong preference was recorded for peaceful means of conflict resolution, with variations in emphasis on bilateral talks and multilateralism. The presence of Turkey in the Greek public sphere is much stronger than the presence of Greece in the Turkish public sphere. Greek views of Turkey are more coherent compared to Turkish views of Greece. Religiosity is a significant indicator of attitudes towards the other side. Both public opinions are sceptic regarding the role of international actors, as there is concern about their bias in favour of the other side. This study is based on the results of the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series organized by ELIAMEP and IPC and supported by DiaNEOsis. Through its five waves, this survey has identified similarities, differences and dynamics in the views Greeks and Turks have of each other and of Greek-Turkish bilateral disputes; their views about their own country’s position in the world, its relations with the European Union, the United States and Russia; as well as their perceptions of domestic institutions and the future both of their country and of themselves. The study highlights the fact that, despite the escalation in Greek-Turkish relations since 2018, most Greek and Turkish respondents displayed a preference for non-violent means of conflict resolution, even though they disagreed about both the root causes of the bilateral disputes and the appropriate solutions.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Survey
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

15. WHY DO MASS EXPULSIONS STILL HAPPEN?

Author:
Meghan Garrity
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
January 30, 2023 marks 100 years since the signing of the Lausanne Convention—a treaty codifying the compulsory “population exchange” between Greece and Turkey. An estimated 1.5 million people were forcibly expelled from their homes: over one million Greek Orthodox Christians from the Ottoman Empire and 500,000 Muslims from Greece. This population exchange was not the first such agreement, but it was the first compulsory exchange. Turkish nationals of the Greek Orthodox religion and Muslim Greek nationals did not have the option to remain. Further, Greek and Muslim refugees who had fled the Ottoman Empire and Greece, respectively, were not allowed to return to their homes. Only small populations in Istanbul and Western Thrace were exempted from the treaty.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Refugees, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, Rohingya, Geneva Convention, and Lausanne Convention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Niger

16. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:
Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

17. Lessons Learned from the Development of Turkish IR: A View from Greece

Author:
Kyriakos Mikelis
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The essay addresses an outsider's perception of the characteristics and dynamics of the IR field/discipline in Turkey. How may this country serve as a role model or, at the very least, as a source of inspiration, reflection, or evaluation of the field's development in other local/national settings? In this respect, Greece is chosen as a case study. Βy addressing and assessing Turkish self-reflection and the search for disciplinary identity within Turkish IR scholarship, what can be learned, on behalf of Greek IR scholarship, regarding both Greece's and Turkey's social scientific development regarding foreign affairs/policy? A major theme discovered is the acknowledgement of the limitations of the dependency/vulnerability-centered explanations for the development of IR.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Academia, and Social Science
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

18. The Greek Defence Sector: Turning the Page?

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From the 1980s to the 2000s, Greece’s defence industry was mismanaged and failed to utilize Greece’s high defence expenditures to become innovative. The impact of Greece’s fiscal crisis and the subsequent expansion of the Turkish threat mean that both economics and geopolitics now favour an invigorated Greek defence sector. The first major weapons procurement programme since the end of Greece’s fiscal crisis has not meaningfully involved the Greek defence sector. Yet the sector’s future prospects have improved, assured by the need for the sector to be financially viable and internationally competitive and by the broader awareness of the defence sector as a building block in national defence. The EU’s growing role in Europe’s collective defence, driven by continent-wide geopolitical developments and industrial imperatives, will also boost the prospects of the Greek defence sector. Mutually reinforcing obstacles still hamper the Greek defence sector’s progress: (a) a polity which privileges distribution over capital investments in its fiscal choices, and (b) an officer corps which lacks the degree of autonomy to co-create novel defence solutions together with the Greek defence sector. Despite these obstacles, the ongoing Turkish threat engenders national insecurity within Greece to such an extent that it can drive the sustainable growth of the Greek defence sector.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

19. Domestic implementation of European Court of Human Rights’ judgments related to immigration in Greece

Author:
Dia Anagnostou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In recent decades, the European Court of Human Rights has evolved into a leading judicial body which examines and identifies violations committed by states in the management of migration and asylum. Greece is one of the countries that has been condemned in a large number of judgements relating to administrative detention, reception and accommodation conditions, the treatment of migrants by the police and border authorities, the asylum system, the treatment of unaccompanied minors, and human trafficking. This paper examines the Greek authorities’ compliance with the ECtHR judgements in this area. It focuses on general measures which relate to broader changes in the legislation and case law, as well as on administrative practice in Greece. It analyses the obstacles and difficulties present in this area, and it makes policy recommendations. It argues that a new approach is needed to Greece’s compliance with regard to the human rights of migrants and refugees. This approach should be focused on structural reforms and it should have the express commitment of the country’s political leadership. It would require systematic efforts to instil a new mindset within the public administration that is supportive of human rights protection as a priority and democratic responsibility, rather than as an externally imposed, necessary evil.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Judiciary, Asylum, and European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

20. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Greece, and Syria