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102. Turkey-Greece Confrontation and Georgia: Threats and Challenges
- Author:
- Zurab Batiashvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Relations between Turkey and Greece have never been easy but since the summer of 2020, tensions between them rose sharply. If during June and July of 2020 the parties were arguing over the conversion of the Hagia Sophia Museum into a mosque, in August-September the center of controversy shifted to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. Many unresolved issues have accumulated over the decades in this "space" - the problem of Cyprus, the problem of the separation of maritime economic zones (hence, the natural resources located there), the issue of 12 islands and airspace, the matter of ownership of uninhabited small islands and more. In addition, recently, one can observe increasingly aggressive rhetoric in both countries which creates the danger of small incidents escalating into a major military confrontation that, in turn, createsseriousthreats and challenges to regionalsecurity (including Georgia).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Economics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Greece, and Georgia
103. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast
- Author:
- Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
- Topic:
- Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean
104. Unequivocal Diplomatic Support for the EEZ Agreement between Greece and Egypt
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should act to ensure that the Greek-Egyptian EEZ delimitation map is globally endorsed, as opposed to the Turkish-GNA alternative, and work in the American arena to curb Erdogan’s ambitions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Mediterranean
105. Israel, Greece, and the Turkish Challenge: Acute Testing Lies Ahead
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is unable to get directly involved in eastern Mediterranean hostilities, should they erupt. But it can and should cooperate closely with Greece in intelligence matters and arms acquisition and coordinate political action with Greece in Washington. The US stance largely will determine the practical scope of Erdogan’s ambitions.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Greece
106. The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed “Government of National Accord” in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from ruin).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
107. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean
108. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
109. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum: Cooperation in the Shadow of Competition
- Author:
- Gabriel Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Established in January 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) is the most significant multinational organization in a geopolitical space often associated with conflict and competition. Currently comprised of Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Greece, Italy and the Palestinian Authority, the forum’s purpose to advance opportunities for energy development and cooperation between Eastern Mediterranean states in order to maximize the commercial potential of the region’s hydrocarbon reserves. This paper analyzes the diplomatic processes that resulted in the EMGF’s formation, the current challenges the forum faces, and Israel’s capacity to shape this nascent body’s future. If the forum hopes to grow in the postcoronavirus era, then it must commit to seeking pathways towards economic cooperation, enhancing its scope to include renewable energy, while also prioritizing conflict resolution and the establishment of a new maritime order.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, Gas, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Italy, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
110. Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy
- Author:
- Maciej Pawłowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Alliance, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean