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21. Drafting Greece’s “Internal Security Strategy” – Challenges and Prospects

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas and Triandafyllos Karatrantos
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The radical change in the structure of the international system caused a scientific and political revolution in the definition and concept of security. Issues such as the climate crisis, forced displacements and extreme nationalism have led the interest and especially the debate on achieving security from external to internal threats. The focus is now on the main “object of reference” of security which is not the state or some sub-state groups, but “the individual”/”the citizen”. In the modern globalized environment, all the risks that threaten the daily life of citizens require dealing with the concept of security in a “holistic” and, at the same time, more “human-centered” way. Greece lacks an institutional document for the internal security strategy. There are structural reasons that make a comprehensive reform of the internal security sector necessary. In addition to the established weaknesses and inadequacies of specific agencies and/or services of the internal security system, the overall organic interconnection between crisis management services is still required. The first lesson from the effects of the pandemic is the need for the evolution of Greece into a “Modern National Security State”. Greece, due to its geographical position on the external borders of the EU, as well as the crises it has experienced in recent years, faces a series of internal security threats and challenges. Security and respect for fundamental rights are not mutually conflicting but coherent and complementary objectives. The Strategy will help build an internal security governance system and a central coordination process.
Topic:
Security, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

22. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya

Author:
Constantine Capsaskis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa

23. Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The most recent surveys on the study of the connection between mutual military buildups, arms races, and military interstate disputes (MID) warn of research projects, especially in the case of the Greece-Turkey dyad, that have reached a stalemate. This is due to the difficulty of capturing motivations, which constitute the main variable that turns mutual military buildups into arms races. Using the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads as proof-of-concept cases, we advance a novel approach for analyzing the interrelation between mutual military buildups, arms races, and MIDs that can overcome that stalemate. We suggest a two-stage approach that focuses on the dyad as a unit of analysis. In the first stage, which we preset here, we use rivalry to divide dyad history into periods of differing subsistence military spending. We then locate periods of mutual military buildups in the different rivalry periods of a dyad history. We argue that this process provides a more nuanced and detailed grasp on the presence of mutual military buildups in a dyad. It also provides the foundation for the future second stage of analysis, where qualitative research can focus on the specific periods of mutual military buildups to unearth indicators of motivation.
Topic:
Ottoman Empire, Rivalry, Arms Race, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

24. Defence expenditure and public debt in Greece: A non-linear relationship

Author:
Ioanna Bardakas, Dimitris Doulos, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to consider and evaluate the widely–used argument attributing the growth of the public debt of Greece in recent decades to the country’s defence expenditure. We employ a two-equation model that focuses on the determinants of the military debt and how this has affected the public debt. The source of our military debt data is the Hellenic General Accounting Office, an option taken to cope with confidentiality issues. Finally, we insist on focusing on the expenditure on defence equipment imports rather than the total defence spending that the literature mostly covers, for reasons extensively analysed. Our methodology firstly assumes a linear relationship between military debt and public debt. We solve the system using 3SLS to obtain consistent and efficient estimates to derive interesting policy implications. The employment of a non-linear quadratic form not previously adopted proves to be superior in terms of performance and reveals the complexity of the above relationship. These point to the conclusion that the defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties have not had a decisive impact on the public debt of Greece. The defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties represent a very low percentage of the total public debt of Greece. Moreover, these are considered to be an investment activity rather than consumer spending, which has been acknowledged in the literature as the primary cause of Greece’s high indebtedness and the ensuing economic crisis.
Topic:
Security, Public Debt, Public Spending, Economic Security, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

25. NATO's Strategic Concept: Implications for Greece and Türkiye

Author:
Nikolaos Lampas
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article analyses the impact of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new strategic concept on its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean and its implications for Greek-Turkish relations. We analyse the application of NATO’s new strategic concept in the Eastern Mediterranean by focusing on the case study of Greek-Turkish tensions and NATO’s role in de-escalation efforts. The case study of Greek-Turkish relations is vital for two reasons. Firstly, because of NATO’s renewed interest in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and secondly, because the complicated relationship between the two countries has the potential to disrupt NATO’s unity. The findings of this article suggest that while NATO’s intention is to adapt to evolving security challenges, its new strategic concept has done little to de-escalate the tensions between Greece and Türkiye. Despite the Alliance’s commitment to collective defence and conflict resolution, the longstanding disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have persisted, often with increased intensity. In conclusion, NATO’s new strategic concept acknowledges the burgeoning complexities in the Eastern Mediterranean, yet falls markedly short of introducing effective measures to de-escalate the longstanding tensions between Greece and Türkiye. While the document perceptively addresses the need for heightened engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean and highlights the myriad security challenges, including territorial disputes, migration issues, and the competition for energy resources, it lacks a clear actionable framework for mitigating the discord between these two member states.
Topic:
NATO, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean

26. COSCO in Piraeus: Investment Embeddedness and the Question of Chinese 'influence'

Author:
Konstantinos Tsimonis and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Professor Tsimonis will present his research around the landmark investment of China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) in the port of Piraeus and discuss its political, social, economic and environmental repercussions. The speaker will approach COSCO's investment as an embedded phenomenon and unpack the agency of local, regional and global actors in order to assess the question of 'Chinese influence'. This talk will introduce to the Weatherhead audience the context of Chinese activities and policies in Greece. The speaker will also discuss the challenge and the necessity for developing independent China expertise in countries with no China studies tradition, as a way to mitigate the political risks arising from the PRC's global economic outreach.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Investment, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
China, Greece, and Asia

27. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

28. A Decade of Greek Immigration and Asylum Policy (2015-2024): A Balancing Act of EU Participation, Humanitarian Obligations, and Security Concerns

Author:
Angelo Tramountanis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Greece was at the forefront of the European Union’s (EU) immigration and asylum policy implementation during the migration crisis of 2015–2016. Throughout this period, it is estimated that more than one million migrants and refugees traveled through Greece, moving toward other Western European countries.1 The sheer size of this transient population—and its multifaceted political and social implications for European countries—prompted the EU to attempt to curb the influx of immigrants to Greece and, by extension, to its member states. In 2023, almost a decade later, a tragic shipwreck near Pylos claiming over 600 lives, as well as ongoing discussions by several actors and organizations regarding Greece’s migrant pushbacks, has brought the country under the European spotlight once again.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, Humanitarian Response, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

29. A Road with Many Thorns: Current Challenges to the Turkish-Greek Relations

Author:
George Karatasios
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our September-October issue of Turkeyscope, now appearing together with our November-December issue due to the outbreak of the Gaza War, George Karatasios analyzes the contours of Turkish-Greek relations, past and present. Given the number of ongoing disputes these two nations have, he suggests focusing on manageable problems as a path for building trust and conflict resolution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Trust-building
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean

30. Greece and Tripartite Partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Recommended Policy for Greek Strategic Interests

Author:
Dimitrios Grekos
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean is an area of strategic importance not only in the peripheral but worldwide. In recent years, the field of the Eastern Mediterranean has entered a new dynamic since there are trends of Tripartite Partnerships between neighboring states. These partnerships are political, cultural, economic, energy (due to the hydrocarbon surveys), immigration, and especially at the level of dealing with common security threats. By conducting tripartite partnerships, Greece achieved balance while playing a major role in the region. The study examined this Greek initiative in the sectors above under the vacuum left by the great powers (Russia and the USA). Greek foreign policy, through Tripartite Partnerships, defended its strategic interests and shaped the region’s good relationships. The analysis of this policy employed the theory of neoclassical realism in order to present the international and internal (state) system and their impact on the Greek initiative of tripartite cooperation with the states of the Eastern Mediterranean. According to said method, a recommended policy for Greek strategic interests was designed, which may be utilized by other regional states.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Law, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Greece and Eastern Mediterranean