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51. Modern Monetary Theory Meets Greece and Chicago

Author:
George S. Tavlas
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During the fall of 2009, George Papandreou headed the ticket of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, known by its acronym PASOK, against the then‐​governing conservative party, New Democracy, in the Greek national elections. Papandreou ran on a platform that featured highly expansive fiscal spending. During a press conference on September 13, 2009, he was asked where he would find the money to fund his party’s spending proposals. His answer was that given in the above quotation, by which he meant that Greece had abundant fiscal space to increase government spending; he believed that tax revenues could be sharply raised through stricter enforcement of laws against tax evasion. On October 4, PASOK won a landslide electoral victory, garnering 43.9 percent of the popular vote, compared with 33.5 percent for the second‐​place, incumbent New Democracy party, with the result that Papandreou became Greece’s prime minister. In the following months, a sovereign‐​debt crisis erupted in Greece that, within a year, engulfed much of the euro area through contagion. In November 2011, Papandreou resigned the premiership, becoming the first Greek prime minister in almost 50 years to be forced out of office by his own cabinet. An article in the Financial Times, reporting on his ouster, stated: “George Papandreou will be remembered by Greeks with more than a trace of bitterness as the man who smilingly declared ‘the money’s there’ ” (Hope 2011). In the next Greek elections, held in June 2012, PASOK won only 12.3 percent of the vote.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Conservatism, Political Parties, and Socialism
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

52. The Eastern Mediterranean conflict: From Turkey-Greece confrontation to regional power struggles

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
For several decades, the Eastern Mediterranean confict consisted of a three-part struggle over territorial wa- ters, sovereignty and exclusionary national narratives between Turkey, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus. Its origins can be traced as far back as the Greek War of Independence in the 1830s, the Lausanne Peace Trea- ty determining the current borders of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, and the failed bicommunal federal state established in Cyprus in 1960. Regarding the Cyprus confict, the best – but ultimately lost – opportunity to resolve the issue was the 2004 Annan Plan for a bicom- munal federal state. Today, the Eastern Mediterranean confict is a multi-level and multi-actor power strug- gle that is unlikely to wane any time soon. In addition to Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, it also includes actors such as France, Italy, Libya, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Tis Briefng Paper frst identifes the main actors involved, and then proceeds to analyze the key de- terminants of the confict. Te paper concludes that tension in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue in the foreseeable future. A full military confrontation is unlikely, however, as NATO can provide a necessary platform for a Greece-Turkey de-escalation. Tis is likely to prevent an actual war, but will not be enough to produce any lasting solution in the increasingly confict-ridden Eastern Mediterranean regional power struggle.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

53. Making Connectivity Work: Transforming the Port of Thessaloniki into a Top Hub for Southeast Europe and Beyond

Author:
Panagiotis Paschalidis and Georgia Anastasiou
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Thessaloniki Port has all the necessary elements to become a top regional, South-East European and international trade hub. The Thessaloniki Port Authority has adopted extrovert and proactive policies for strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries. The Thessaloniki Port’s impact can become even stronger if it is approached and designed on the basis of the notion of connectivity. Connectivity entails the upgrading of both technical and material aspects such as trade and commercial infrastructure (hard module) as well as the institutional and policy framework of cooperation such as agreements at the bilateral and multilateral level with neighboring countries (soft module). The drastic normalization of relations between Greece and North Macedonia can be viewed as an example of a comprehensive upgrading of connectivity with tangible benefits for the improvement of the Port’s regional and international role.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Trade, and Port
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Thessaloniki

54. Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in the Greek Depression

Author:
Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
What is the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation? Our macroeconomic model simulations show that fiscal austerity accounts for 1/3 of the output drop in the Greek Depression and more than 10% of migration outflows. In a no-emigration counterfactual scenario, the model predicts a smaller output fall by 20%. We also uncover a novel bi-directional link between emigration and austerity. On the one hand, labour income tax hikes induce prolonged migration outflows, while spending cuts exert a smaller effect. On the other hand, emigration increases the required tax hike and time to meet a given debt target due to endogenous revenue leakage. In terms of unemployment, temporary gains from emigration are reversed over time.
Topic:
Austerity, Fiscal Policy, Emigration, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

55. Citizens’ views on fake news and false narratives about the European Union – FACTS project

Author:
George Andreou
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
There is more unison than discrepancy in Greek citizens’ perceptions regarding the European Union. National identity continues to shape and frame the way most Greeks perceive the EU, interpret its activities, and evaluate its role. Participants have a positive image of the EU. However, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards an EU that “does not function on equal terms for all”. The general public lacks basic knowledge about the EU and what it stands for, about the respective roles of the Union and its member states, as well as about the ways EU and national officials engage in policy-making. Greeks are very vulnerable to disinformation about the EU, as relevant and reliable information is scarce in the domestic media. Many mobilized citizens feel that information from EU sources is not addressed to all, but only to those who have a strong personal and/or professional motivation. Non-mobilized citizens appear quite distant from information regarding the EU. Lack of solidarity between member states breeds apathy and a lack of interest in the EU among EU citizens. The most effective strategy against disinformation is improving communication between the EU and its citizens, and cultivating trust.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

56. Greece, Russia and the EU: The Way Forward

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The visit of PM Mitsotakis to Sochi could open a new chapter in Greek-Russian relations as bilateral deals are in the pipeline. The Greek position is firm and unchanging: a normalization of EU-Russian relations would be in Europe’s best interests. The Greek government might be prepared to help bring about a new EU-Russia dialogue. The strengthening of Greek-American relations will not prevent Greece from employing a multidimensional foreign policy, vis-à-vis Russia, too. Stronger Greek-Russian relations could send a message to Turkey that some of its regional policies are alienating other actors. Greek-Russian relations enjoy greater historical depth than Turkish-Russian relations. While its strategic commitment to NATO and the EU remains steadfast, Greece is a valuable partner for Russia. Greece is in the process of diversifying its sources of natural gas imports, but considers Russia a critical market.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Imports
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Greece

57. The Digital Markets Act (DMA): Between European autonomy and transatlantic cooperation

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece is seeking to unleash innovation and digitalization to stabilize its economy in the aftermath of the economic crisis and to recover from the pandemic. Greece is closely monitoring EU regulatory developments on digital affairs and adjusting its legislation accordingly. The proposed Digital Markets Act (DMA) is aligned behind the broader EU strategy of increasing European digital autonomy, an objective also endorsed by Greece. The DMA-related concerns of politicians, experts, representatives of the business sector and start-uppers are important and multifaceted, and ought to be taken into account in Europe (and Greece), especially with regard to the question of the DMA’s allegedly negative impact on innovation. It is in the interest of the EU (and Greece) to strike a balance between the emphasis on regulation and ‘gatekeepers’ on the one hand, and the need for enterprises and start-ups to benefit from services provided by digital giants (often for free) on the other. Combining the above with the pursuit of European digital autonomy is a demanding task. Although the DMA does not directly impact on Greek companies, the country is hoping for a smooth evolution in transatlantic relations during the Biden Presidency, both generally and in technological affairs. Greek start-ups envisage a boost in their US presence. The DMA proposal is inevitably complex; more time may be required for some EU member-states, including Greece, to actively join the debate.
Topic:
European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Autonomy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

58. Nudging for Recovery: Behavioral Economics and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan

Author:
Demosthenes Kollias
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Greece is presented with yet another opportunity to catch up with global trends. At the same time, behavioral economics are being established worldwide as a valuable asset in the policy maker’s toolkit. The paper -mainly focusing on taxation, labor market policy, and climate change- aims to examine the behavioral conundrum that creates frictions and inefficiency in the domains outlined above and to offer concrete and quantifiable policy proposals, in accordance with the goals of Greece 2.0. Regarding tax evasion, for example, one can estimate at least €1 billion in additional tax revenue if the proposals are implemented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Tax Systems, Labor Market, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

59. The role of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean conflict zone: A country transformed and a glimpse into the future

Author:
Thrasyvoulos Terry Stamatopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Major population movements have contributed to the transformation of the social and political landscape in Turkey. Political Islam and a resurgent nationalism are now among the primary factors in decision-shaping. National ambition is visibly shifting away from close association with/participation in the West, coloured by a visible revival of a particular view of its Ottoman past. The resulting domestic political dynamics are affecting the composition and traditional Western orientation of major state institutions, including the military. The above translate in a trend of distancing of the Turkish Republic from its partners of the last century and of difficult if not hostile relations with the US, the EU and some of its member-states, and other states in the region. The shift to a multi-polar world is contributing to this trend, fueling ambitions of the Government, but also of a significant part of the broader elite, for an increased role of Turkey as a regional power and on the global stage. The US and its allies, and the EU and its member-states must engage in a serious evaluation of Turkey’s transformation and its strategic orientation, which they have yet to do.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Conflict, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, United States of America, and Mediterranean

60. Skills mismatch in the Greek labour market: insights from a youth survey

Author:
Dimitris Katsikas
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper presents some first findings from a youth survey relating to the skills mismatch in Greece. The survey was conducted in the context of the EEA Grants sponsored research project “Youth employment and gender equality: Mobilizing human capital for sustainable growth in Greece”, which is implemented by ELIAMEP and the Norwegian institute Fafo. The project seeks to document and analyze conditions in the Greek labour market, with an emphasis on the main barriers constraining young people’s access to it and on their progress once they get a job. Pending a more in-depth analysis of the findings, the preliminary evidence presented here adds some insights to the study of the skills mismatch phenomenon in Greece and helps us outline a few policy proposals. Skills mismatch is a significant problem for modern economies, as it leads to the inefficient utilization of the labour force, reducing productivity and growth potential. Research shows that Greece faces a serious skills mismatch problem. The findings of a youth survey presented here: Confirm the problem for the Greek labour market in both its vertical (over/ underqualification) and horizontal (field of study) dimensions. Show that skills mismatch affects graduates within every level and orientation (e.g., vocational training) of the educational system. Document young people’s belief that the educational system does not prepare them well for the labour market Show that skills mismatch is a serious obstacle to labour market entry for young people Confirm the lack of learning opportunities for those in employment, as well as the importance which young people attach to such opportunities for their professional progress. Reveal that young people often reject jobs due to low pay and unsatisfactory employment conditions, implying that reported skills shortages are also due to the terms of employment on offer. Policy responses should be multi-faceted, targeting both the educational system and the economy. Providing students with information about market developments and trends, and taking such information into account in the design of educational curricula (particularly in vocational training) is essential if the skills mismatch problem is to be addressed.
Topic:
Youth, Survey, Labor Market, and Skills
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece