Search

Begin New Search Topic Economic growth Political Geography Global Markets

1. Macroeconomic Update: Indian Exports: Loss of Global Competitiveness

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India’s exports have declined for six consecutive monthssince December 2014 with an average decline of 13.85% yoy. The decline was broad-based. Even exports of Manufactured goods trended lower during this time and failed to compensate for the fall in nominal value of commodity exports, which declined due to a huge erosion of global commodity and oil prices. India’s exports seem to have become more reliant on global commodity prices in recent years. In line with global crude oil prices, India’s monthly petroleum exports that peaked in July’14 at $7 billion shrunk to mere $2.4 billion in May 2015, declining at an average of 52% since the start of the year. Iron ore exports having peaked at $509.5 million in December 2011 moved from $129.5 million in April 2014 to $10 million in May 2015. It is instructive to take a longer term perspective of export performance (Please see Chart I below). Average export growth hasremained almoststagnantsince January 2012 after a sharp bounce back from the collapse in the first and second quarters of 2009, induced by the global financial crisis. Export growth since October 2011 (50 months) is much lower than the robust 20% average clocked during the seven year period of April 2002- March 2009. (marginally lower than the 23% rate of growth assumed for the five year period of 2015-16 to 2020-21 in the Foreign Trade Policy announced in early 2015).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economic growth, Commodities, Exports, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Markets

2. When will the global economy return to rapid growth?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
More than six years have passed since the subprime mortgage crisis began in the US in the summer of 2007. In the following year, it spread to the entire world economy. Its consequences have not been fully overcome yet. Thus it’s not surprising that economists’ attention has been largely devoted to short-term, crisis-related issues like financial deleveraging and repairing the balance sheets of governments, corporations and households. For the macroeconomic policy debate, this means concentrating on demand management by using monetary and fiscal policy tools in order to return to a pre-crisis growth path. Rarely has the question been asked of whether or not this is a realistic goal, i.e., whether post-crisis growth can return to pre-crisis levels. An analysis of growth perspectives in the medium-to-longterm calls for using the neo-classical growth theory, according to which there are three factors at play: labor, capital and total factor productivity (TFP). In this brief we will try to figure out what their expected dynamics are and how much each of them can contribute to economic growth in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Economic growth, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global Markets