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1. Red herrings: A theory of bad politicians hijacking media attention

Author:
Margot Belguise
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Politicians are sometimes accused of sending “red herrings”, irrelevant information meant to distract their audience from other information. When do they succeed in fooling voters? How is this affected by the media? This paper proposes a model of election with red herring. An incumbent running for re-election may send an irrelevant ”tale” to distract voters from a scandal. Some politicians may simply enjoy telling irrelevant tales, making it difficult for voters to recognize red herrings. Red herrings can thus be ”successful” in that the incumbent is re-elected despite the scandal. Equilibrium characterization sheds light on two non-trivial results. First, the game sometimes has multiple equilibria: society may coordinate on equilibria with no or some successful red herring through a self-fulfilling social norm of tale-telling. However, high media attention to tales may discipline scandal-free politicians due to voter suspicion of tales, leaving a unique equilibrium with no successful red herring. A dynamic extension introduces feedbacks between the pool of politicians and media attention. Polar cases in which red herring is predicted to increase over time or on the contrary disappear are highlighted. A second extension shows that voter polarization is predicted to have ambiguous effects on politician discipline and thereby on screening.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Voting, and Scandals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Social Media Strategies for Election Management Bodies

Author:
Gabe Morris
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Technology platforms and products continue to transform politics and elections with prominent implications for voter trust and understanding. As social media increasingly becomes a space where disinformation and conspiracy about elections flourish, it is essential that democratic actors communicate effectively to share credible information that builds trust and brings transparency to the administration of elections. In keeping with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ (IFES) strategic commitment to ensuring that technology, information and data positively serve democracy and elections, we continue to provide tools and resources to help our partners around the world stay abreast of the evolving technological landscape. Despite the proliferation of challenges stemming from the evolution of social media and digital communication, IFES and its election management body (EMB) partners recognize the value of social media in reaching voters, enhancing transparency and countering disinformation and hate speech with credible, authoritative content.
Topic:
Elections, Social Media, Voting, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Vote by Mail: International Practice during COVID-19

Author:
Erica Shenin, Staffan Darnolf, and Katherine Ellena
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has reinvigorated debate around alternative voting methods. A growing number of democracies successfully operate distance voting, in which ballots are delivered to voters’ home and voters then return ballots by mail or in person. The most effective administrations have scaled up operations over several electoral cycles, incrementally calibrating and perfecting capacity and safeguards. However, COVID-19 has suddenly increased demand for this complex election service. Election authorities, voters and politicians should therefore be cognizant of the risks and rewards associated with rapidly scaling up distance voting. Vote by Mail: International Practice During COVID-19, a new paper from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), compares practices across Europe, Asia, Oceania and different U.S. states. It then provides recommendations for legislators and election administrators – in the U.S. and globally – to address challenges related to distance voting.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Political Trust vs. Turnout in Modern Democracies

Author:
Izabela Kapsa
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article analyzes the relations between political trust - one of the most important values in the life of political communities - and election-related behaviors in the narrow meaning of voting. Researchers investigate the phenomenon of decreasing turnout as one of the expressions of democratic crisis. When studying such a complex problem, it is essential to search for multi-theme causes which might be helpful in understanding the topic and possibly finding a solution for it. The author of this article, while assuming the correctness of analyzes conducted thus far, which indicate that the problem lies in weaker attachment to political parties, less interest in politics and inadequate tools, raises questions whether the decreasing turnout in individual states may be related to the level of trust that citizens put in political institutions and whether there is a relation between these both indicators. In order to answer these questions, the author employs a quantitative analysis of data which derive from reports containing percentage levels of political trust and turnout in the elections, a comparative analysis, as well as an overview of literature on the subject.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Abuse of State Resources Research and Assessment Framework

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) recently concluded a two-year Technical Leadership project examining the abuse of state resources (ASR) in election campaigns. This research initiative, led by the Center for Applied Research and Learning and funded by the United States Agency for International Development under the Global Elections and Political Transitions mechanism, focused on ASR (sometimes referred to as administrative resources) for the purpose of gaining an electoral advantage. The Abuse of State Resources Research and Assessment Framework: Guidelines for the Democracy and Governance Community of Practice is an abbreviated companion document to the complete Abuse of State Resources Research and Assessment Framework developed in this effort. Both documents are based on in-depth, comparative analysis of laws and regulations that target ASR in election campaigns and the effectiveness of these provisions in deterring or remedying these abuses. In many countries, uses of state resources during electoral periods are not sufficiently regulated and enforcement of violations is weak or nonexistent due to deficits of political will or limited capacity of oversight institutions. As highlighted in an IFES publication, individuals and parties in power may capitalize on these gaps to marshal public goods – including state personnel, state funds and physical assets, and official government communications – in service of political campaigns. Beyond undermining electoral competitiveness, another often-overlooked component of this abuse of power is the role elections play in cycles of entrenched corruption. Not only do abuses during the campaign period undermine competitiveness by conferring an unfair electoral advantage, they threaten the appropriate distribution of government services and do long-term damage to the legitimacy of governance institutions. This is because abuses do not stop after parties use the assistance of the state apparatus to win elections; corrupt politicians subsequently use their access to levers of the state to enrich themselves and distribute perks to supporters. The cycle of government personnel, media, and other resources being used in service of political campaigns is then likely to continue. This ASR assessment tool focuses on legal and regulatory provisions specific to ASR, but it also delves into some other common areas of abuse (for example, government procurement and contracting, public works spending around elections, campaign finance, and vote buying). These guidelines were designed for use by international and domestic civil society actors, implementers, and advocates to evaluate the effectiveness of the ASR legal framework in a given country and develop additional tools for monitoring and advocacy. This shorter version of the tool will help these groups identify priority issues and vulnerabilities that they can use in developing their strategy for monitoring, addressing, and/or advocating for measures to mitigate ASR. Findings could also point to specific recommendations for improving transparency and enforcement surrounding ASR, including enhanced training programs, strengthened regulatory provisions, investments in investigative journalism, and increased transparency in public procurement.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Voting
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. When Are Elections Good Enough?

Author:
Chad Vickery, David Ennis, Katherine Ellena, and Alyssa Kaiser
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The high-profile annulment of the 2017 Kenyan presidential election surprised many election watchers in Africa and across the globe. All elections suffer from challenges and irregularities, to varying degrees of seriousness, including poll worker error, acts of God, and violence, without these challenges necessarily changing the outcome of the vote or leading to a full annulment. A decision to annul elections is one that should not be taken lightly as it can have serious consequences for democracy. Repeat elections impose unexpected costs on state budgets and candidates; the normal operation of legislatures and governments may be disrupted while a revote is organized; candidates may refuse to participate in the fresh elections, leading to a political crisis; and repeat elections may themselves be subject to irregularities. Most concerning, however, is the potential for bad actors to use annulment of results (under the guise of ensuring “secure elections” or as redress for “widespread irregularities”) as a tool to thwart the will of voters. This raises important questions: When are elections considered good enough? And what is needed to make a determination whether to validate or annul an election? The answer to these questions is not straightforward, and different jurisdictions have taken different approaches. In some contexts, there may be a readily quantifiable number of votes affected by one or more irregularities. In other cases, however, such as voter intimidation, cyberattacks, or electoral disinformation, determining the impact of an irregularity on an election will be difficult or impossible. With that difficulty in mind, it is critically important for jurisdictions to have clear and pre-determined rules governing when annulment is available as a remedy, both to ensure that annulment is available if needed, but also so that annulment is not misused to frustrate the will of the voters. A new International Foundation for Electoral Systems research paper outlines various legal approaches to election annulments, explores different grounds for annulment, and outlines procedural considerations for courts and adjudicators when determining whether to annul an election result, drawing on international principles and global jurisprudence.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Election Interference, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. The Clarity Incentive for Issue Engagement in Campaigns

Author:
Chitralekha Basu and Matthew Knowles
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Although parties focus disproportionately on favourable issues in their election campaigns, it is also the case that parties spend much of the ‘short campaign’ addressing the same issues – and especially salient issues. This is surprising from the perspective of the theoretical literature, which has focused on parties’ incentives to campaign on ‘owned issues’ in order to increase the importance voters attach to these issues. We explain this behaviour by proposing that parties face an additional incentive to emphasise issues that are salient to voters: the need to clarify their positions on these issues for sympathetic voters. Leveraging the surprise election victory of the British Conservative Party in 2015—which prompted a hitherto unexpected referendum on EU membership—we show that, consistent with this hypothesis, voter uncertainty is especially costly for parties on salient issues. We formalise this argument using a model of party strategy with endogenous issue salience.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Global Focus

8. Policy Experimentation, Redistribution and Voting Rules

Author:
Vincent Anesi and T. Renee Bowen
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We study conditions under which optimal policy experimentation can be implemented by a committee. We consider a dynamic bargaining game in which committee members choose to implement either a risky reform or a safe alternative with known returns each period. We find that when no redistribution is allowed the unique equilibrium outcome is generically inefficient. When committee members are allowed to redistribute resources (even arbitrarily small amounts), there always exists an equilibrium that supports optimal experimentation for any voting rule with no veto players. With veto players, however, optimal policy experimentation is possible only with a sufficient amount of redistribution. We conclude that veto rights are more of an obstacle to optimal policy experimentation than constraints on redistribution.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Voting, and Redistribution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Public Referenda and Public Opinion on Olympic Games

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Public referenda on Olympic bids have drawn considerable interest in the recent past, also because – with few exceptions – the voters decided against the Olympic ambitions of the local governments and/or local bid committees. For example, within the last five years before the finalizing of this text, voters in Vienna and Hamburg decided against bids for Olympic Summer Games in 2028 and 2024, respectively. Ambitions for Olympic Winter Games have been ended by referenda in Graubünden 2026 (Switzerland), Munich 2022 (Germany), St. Moritz / Davos / Graubünden 2022, and Krakow 2022 (Poland). Table 1 presents the data of the history of Olympic referenda and clarifies that Olympic referenda are by no means an innovation of recent times: The oldest reported referenda are from the 1960´s. All public referenda were held on Olympic Winter Games, with the exception of the two Summer Games referenda for Vienna 2024 and Hamburg 2024 mentioned above. There was a balance between positive and negative referenda for Olympic Games bids up to the 1970s. Since the 1980s, the number of negative referenda has clearly outperformed the number of positive referenda.
Topic:
Economics, Sports, Olympics, Voting, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. IFES Experts Contribute to American Bar Association Book on International Election Remedies

Author:
Katherine Ellena and Chad Vickery
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The right to an effective remedy is well established in international law, and stems from the fundamental rights of political participation and universal suffrage. It is the violation of these rights – intentional or otherwise – that necessitates a remedy to restore them. Election experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) were invited to contribute four chapters to a publication of the American Bar Association’s (ABA) Standing Committee on Election Law, entitled International Election Remedies, published in November 2016. In “Measuring Effective Remedies for Fraud and Administrative Malpractice,” Senior Legal Specialist Katherine Ellena and Center for Applied Research and Learning Director Chad Vickery take on the difficult task of addressing what are effective remedies where fraud and malpractice affect the election. They emphasize the need for electoral remedies that protect the integrity of the process and electoral rights. In "Voter Registration," Michael Yard, a former chief of party in Kenya and Uganda, explains that registration of eligible voters is one of the most time-consuming activities undertaken by many electoral management bodies. To further explore this critical component of election administration, Yard explains the difference among passive, man¬datory and optional registration systems. IFES Indonesia Chief of Party David Ennis and former U.S. Elections Adviser Cameron Quinn describe in “Voting and Election Day” the balance between due process and the need for timeliness in addressing problems on Election Day.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Participation, and Suffrage
Political Geography:
Global Focus