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121. Trading Security: A Case Study on Maritime Security Decision Points in the Context of Global Trade

Author:
Caroline Troein and Anne Moulakis
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The term maritime security often evokes destroyers and aircraft carriers, disputes over territorial waters or islands, or piracy and terrorist attacks such as the USS Cole bombing in 2000. High profile crises can lead us to forget that maritime security is an everyday event; it is about enabling safe transit. Each step within the maritime transport of goods has security challenges and considerations. At the same time, the continued stability and effectiveness of maritime trade is itself a broader security matter of importance to consumers, businesses, and governments. With the “weaponization of finance” maritime trade will play a central role in economic actions being taken out of geopolitical concerns.
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Oceans

122. Privateers! Their History and Future

Author:
Alexander Tabarrok and Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Government employment of private military firms is not a new phenomenon. During the Age of Sail, naval powers issued privateering licenses to shipowners, allowing and encouraging them to raid enemy commerce and attack foreign navies during times of war – a system that bears several similarities to modern military contracting. But private enterprise did not go to war in a legal vacuum. How do countries make the incentives for private security firms align with national policy in the 21st century?
Topic:
History, Maritime Commerce, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Britain, Global Focus, United States of America, and Oceans

123. Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

Author:
Ozge Akinci
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Estimated dynamic models of business cycles in emerging markets deliver counterfactual predictions for the country risk premium. In particular, the country interest rate predicted by these models is acyclical or procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical in the data. This paper proposes and estimates a small open economy model of the emerging-market business cycle in which a time-varying country risk premium emerges endogenously. In the proposed model, a firm's borrowing rate adjusts countercyclically as the default threshold of the firm depends on the state of the macroeconomy. I econometrically estimate the proposed model and find that it can account for the volatility and the countercyclicality of country risk premium as well as for other key emerging market business cycle moments. Time varying uncertainty in firm specific productivity contributes to delivering a countercyclical default rate and explains 70 percent of the variances in the trade balance and in the country risk premium. Finally, I find the predicted contribution of nonstationary productivity shocks in explaining output variations falls between the extremely high and extremely low values reported in the literature.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Economic Theory, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

124. Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Financial Crisis, GDP, Exchange Rate Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

125. Wage Differentials: Trade Openness and Wage Bargaining

Author:
Gustavo Gonzaga, Beatriz Muriel, and Cristina Terra
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We build a theoretical model that incorporates unionization in the labor market into a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework to investigate the impact of unionization on the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. To capture the American economy case, we assume that unskilled labor in the manufactured goods sector is unionized, and that sector is intensive in skilled labor, and that trade liberalization increases the relative price of manufactured goods. In the HOS model, trade liberalization induces a reallocation of production towards the sector that uses intensively the country’s most abundant factor. The resulting change in relative labor demand impacts wage bargaining in the unionized sector, which, in turn, has a dampening effect on the Stolper-Samuelson effect. Moreover, wages of unionized workers are even less responsive to trade liberalization. Through traditional mandated-wages regressions, we show that skilled-wage differentials changes were less pronounced among more unionized sectors in the U.S. economy for the 1979-1990 period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Wages
Political Geography:
Global Focus

126. Conflict trade: regulating illicit flows to and from war

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This expert analysis note describes an emerging approach to regulating illicit flows of goods to and from conflict zones. The approach, based on norms of national and international law defining business due diligence, is well suited for dilemmas posed by war economies. Due diligence offers the possibility of excluding goods from global flows if they are produced through human rights abuse or used for conflict financing, while at the same time it can limit harm to livelihoods and avoid the wholesale criminalisation of informal economies. To that end, further inter-governmental policy coordination is needed to define conflict financing under international law and to elaborate an effective regulatory strategy.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Regulation, Trade, Armed Conflict, Supply Chains, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

127. Financial Frictions, Trade Credit, and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly, Horacio Sapriza, and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of the credit crunch in the severe contraction of economic activity during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, using firm-level data from six emerging Asian economies. After controlling for the effect of falling demand, we find that sales declined by less for firms with better pre-crisis financial conditions. Amid the decline in external financing opportunities, some firms relied more on trade credit from suppliers during the crisis, which allowed them to post relatively better sales. Export-intensive firms resorted less to trade credit as an alternative source of finance, which contributed to their larger declines in sales.
Topic:
Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Trade, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

128. Trade, Recovery and Sustainable Economic Growth

Author:
Pascal Lamy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Economists have long analysed and helped us understand trade, why nations needed it to prosper, and what governments have to do to reap the gains while managing the costs. The many theories they have developed leave no doubt about the importance of trade to growth and economic development.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

129. Adjustment Options and Strategies in the Context of Agricultural Policy Reform and Trade Liberalisation

Author:
Osamu Kubota
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Reforming agricultural policies by reducing distorting support improves economic efficiency as a whole through a better allocation of resources. This implies that adjustment may have adverse effects on some agricultural households and other people engaged in the sector, in particular in the short term. There may also be negative impacts on upstream and downstream sectors and on regional economies that rely on commodities whose prices and production levels fall with reductions in support and protection. Despite pressures to reform to meet multilateral and bilateral trade commitments and to respond to budgetary constraints, these adverse impacts are a major reason why governments find it difficult to make progress in policy reform.
Topic:
Agriculture, Reform, Trade Liberalization, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

130. Fair Trade Coffee Enthusiasts Should Confront Reality

Author:
Jeremy Weber
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
From university cafeterias to supermarkets in the developed world, people are buying Fair Trade (FT) coffee certified by the FLO-Cert, the certifying entity of Fairtrade Labelling Organizations International (FLO). The assumption is that such purchases will contribute to the welfare of marginalized producers in the developing world. While sales of FT coffee in Europe have stabilized, the North American and Japanese markets are growing rapidly. Total sales increased 40 percent from 2004 to 2005, to a total volume of 33,992 metric tons (MT) (FTO 2005). What is “Fair Trade”? According to FINE, the umbrella organization that comprises the four largest Fair Trade organizations (FLO, International Federation for Alternative Trade, Network of European World Shops, and the European Fair Trade Association), Fair Trade is a trading partnership, based on dialogue, transparency and respect, that seeks greater equity in international trade. It contributes to sustainable development by offering better trading conditions to, and securing the rights of, marginalized producers and workers—especially in the South [FINE 2001]. The FINE definition optimistically assumes that the trading partnerships and conditions promoted by Fair Trade necessarily “contribute to sustainable development.” It is true that the Fair Trade coffee system—the producers, exporters, importers, and retailers operating by the rules and standards of FLO—has improved living standards for many participating coffee growers (Bacon 2005, Raynolds 2004). Yet the system faces vexing issues such as a disconnect between promotional materials and reality, excess supply, and the marginalization of economically disadvantaged producers and groups. Those involved in Fair Trade coffee debates and governance must address these issues if Fair Trade is to be an effective mechanism for rural development in coffee producing regions.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Trade, Coffee, and Fair Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus