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301. WMD Capabilities Enabled by Additive Manufacturing

Author:
Christopher Daase, Grant Christopher, Ferenc Dalnkoki-Veress, Miles A. Pomper, and Robert Shaw
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Additive Manufacturing (AM)—also known as 3D printing—is a rapidly emerging technology with growing relevance for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery. The rapid pace of AM development makes it increasingly difficult to keep track of AM’s potential effect on proliferation pathways. So far, studies addressing the issue have mainly focused on nuclear proliferation. This has created two major problems for policy makers. First, by the time governments are able to respond to specific AM-induced proliferation risks, those risks might already have been overtaken by newer developments. Second, by focusing on nuclear proliferation pathways, governments can fail to recognize AM’s relevance to other proliferation modalities, including chemical and biological weapons and, especially, the means of WMD delivery. This report addresses these shortcomings. As an innovative pilot study, this report provides a more comprehensive approach toward explaining latest AM developments and mitigating the risk of WMD proliferation. Effectively, this report is the first beyond-the-horizon assessment of the impact of AM developments not only on potential nuclear-weapons programs, but also on other WMD modalities and their delivery systems. For this project, Negotiation Design & Strategy (NDS) assembled an expert team of well-known AM and nonproliferation specialists from Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom—three countries at the forefront of AM development. The research team’s contextual knowledge of AM facilities in Europe and the United States allowed for in-depth, on-the-ground interviews with US and European experts from the private sector, national laboratories, and research institutions. Interviews were augmented with an analytical deep dive into the latest AM developments, based on open-source technical literature, including academic papers and patents. The final report allows us to better forecast technological developments and raise awareness for the critical role that AM plays in international security. This report also demonstrates the importance of emerging technologies in the nonproliferation field and underscores the need for further research of this kind. Studies such as this are crucial to inform the broader examination of the relationship between technology and international security.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

302. Rotalama Yerleştirme Problemine Sezgisel Yaklaşım

Author:
Vildan Amil and Ünsal Ozan Kahraman
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
: Çok boyutlu bir optimizasyon problemi olan rotalama ve yerleştirme, belirli bir araç-rota matrisi üzerinden yerleşkeleri önceden belirlenmiş olan tesislerden hangilerinin ulaşım ve üretim maliyeti toplamını minimize etmek için açılıp açılmayacağı ve aynı anda açılanlar arasında hangi rotaların kullanılacağına dair geometri problemini gündeme getirir. Bu probleme Daskin ve Perl’in modeli üzerine kurulu bir denklemler seti ile heuristic bir çözüm yöntemi olan Parçacık Sürü Algoritması (PSO) ile çözüm aranmıştır. Çalışmanın orijinalliğini aldığı ve üzerine kurulu olduğu birincil köşe taşı, yerleştirme ve rotalama problemini cebirsel ve deterministik mecrada ele almak ve buna dair kurguyu vermektir. | As a multidimensional puzzle, the location and routing problem analyzes the geometric problem about which plants should be opened and which routes should be employed between the opened plants in the framework which includes a matrix of specific possible vehicle-routes and possible plants with specific locations. In this context and equation set based on Dashkin and Perl’s Model and the Particle Swarm Optimization Algoritm (PSO), which is a heuristic solution manner, have been employed in the study. The major cornerstone of this article which the study is based on is the purpose to manage the routing and location problem in the algebraic-deterministic context and to give the basic logical mind map about it.
Topic:
Science and Technology and Mathematics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

303. Will Outer Space Be Weaponized?

Author:
Miroslav Tuma
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
This essay discusses the main elements of the American security document called the Missile Defense Review 2019, which was presented by the US Ministry of Defense in January 2019. It covers the possible reasons for the postponed publication of the document and informs about the main legal documents dealing with the peaceful use of space. It compares the current document with the similar one from 2010, which was published by the Obama administration. It also focuses on the possibility of the deployment of US spacebased interceptors in the Earth’s orbit. In this context it analyses the possible negative consequences of such a development, especially that it could lead to the beginning of a phase of a high risk weaponization of outer space and the start of an arms race in that domain.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Weapons, and Space
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

304. Aviation cybersecurity: Scoping the challenge

Author:
Pete Cooper, Simon Handler, and Safa Shahwan Edwards
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the past decade, the aviation industry has reaped the benefits of digitization. With the aircraft efficiency gains and enhancements to the passenger experience catalyzed by new technologies, we have to acknowledge the corresponding new risks, including social and technical vulnerabilities never before addressed. In 2017, the Atlantic Council released its ground-breaking report, Aviation Cybersecurity—Finding Lift, Minimizing Drag. The report raised awareness on the state of cybersecurity in the aviation industry, sparking public dialogue on the intersection of cybersecurity and aviation. This created a foundation for the aviation community to convene around protecting the traveling public. Since then, it has become evident that anticipating, identifying, and mitigating cyberspace vulnerabilities in aviation will require the buy-in of all stakeholders in this ecosystem. Two years on, Thales is honored to continue its support for the Atlantic Council and this crucial initiative that aims to map perspectives on cybersecurity across this diverse industry and highlight the growing need for collaboration across stakeholders. Ultimately, there is no silver bullet for aviation cybersecurity, and confronting cyber risk in aviation will require a global approach, working across safety, security, cybersecurity, and enterprise IT. This report and the accompanying global survey developed by the Atlantic Council will increase our holistic understanding of aviation cyber risk and drive meaningful engagement across the aviation community. This effort to broaden the community of stakeholders examining cybersecurity in aviation will increase our collective security, safety, and resilience. When it comes to the trust of travelers, we are all only as strong as those most vulnerable among us. It is only through mutual understanding and collaboration that we can continue to challenge one another, grow, and improve. I applaud the Atlantic Council for embracing this topic and am proud Thales has the chance to support this work.
Topic:
International Organization, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and Aviation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

305. What do we know about cyber escalation? Observations from simulations and surveys

Author:
Benjamin Jensen and Brandon Valeriano
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Do cyber operations alter how states respond to international crises in a way that creates incentives for decision makers to cross the Rubicon and use military force to settle disputes? This question is central to current cyber strategy debates and the idea of persistent engagement and defending forward in cyberspace. The answer is surprising: no. Based on the evidence, cyber operations offer a valuable escalatory offramp.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

306. Uncertain Futures Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculative Technologies

Author:
Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Dynamic capitalist economies are characterised by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. How then do economic actors form expectations and decide how to act despite this uncertainty? This pa­ per focuses on the role played by imaginaries, narratives, and calculative technologies, and argues that the market impact of shared calculation devices, social narratives, and contin­ gent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of ‘narrative economics’ and a the­ ory of fictional (rather than rational) expectations. When expectations cannot be anchored in objective probability functions, the future belongs to those with the market, political, or rhetorical power to make their models or stories count. The paper also explores the dangers of analytical monocultures and the discourse of best practice in conditions of uncertainty, and considers the link between uncertainty and some aspects of populism.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Capitalism, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

307. The Function Transformation of Central Banks and Commercial Banks under the Application of Digital Fiat Currency

Author:
Song Shuang and Liu Dongmin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Since the advent of Bitcoin, digital currency and its underlying distributed ledger technology have been spread and applied rapidly around the world. Traditionally, currency issuance and circulation are based on binary tree structure, with the central bank as the highest node, commercial banks in the middle and the public and enterprises at the bottom. However, in the distributed ledger system, all nodes have similar privileges and can transact with each other directly. Hence, the advocators promote the potential of digital currency to subvert the monetary control of sovereign countries and alter the traditional business of commercial banks with the characteristics of decentralization, trust-free intermediary, non-tampering and encryption security. On the other hand, the dissenters believe that transaction nodes in distributed ledger system will be greatly increased, and hence reducing the professionalism of transaction processing and forfeiting the authenticity of original information, which then becomes difficult to play a significant role in the future economy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Banks, Central Bank, Currency, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
China and Global Focus

308. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action

Author:
Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Policy makers, academics, and others have devoted significant effort over the past three decades to considering how best to incentivize households and private companies to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There has been much less discussion about how best to incentivize state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- companies that are either wholly or majority owned by a government -- to cut emissions. Yet when it comes to energy sector GHGs, these state companies are among the world’s leading emitters. They are major emitters at both the country and global levels, notably from electricity generation. In the aggregate, they emit over 6.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in energy sector GHGs, which is more than every country except China. Public sector companies are also major providers of low-carbon alternatives, such as renewables and nuclear power, and importantly, they often operate under incentives that are quite different from those facing their private sector counterparts. Given the emissions profile of SOEs, the nature of their corporate mandates, and their ownership structure, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy undertook research to examine how best to engage these companies in efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions as part of its ongoing work on climate change. The paper explores the role of these public sector companies in climate change, examines the effectiveness of market-oriented solutions such as carbon taxes in changing SOE behavior, and evaluates some other potential strategies for reducing their emissions. In short, the paper finds the following: The state-ownership structure of SOEs allows governments to exercise shareholder power to press for the implementation of their climate policy preferences. Providing public sector financing and making associated infrastructure improvements are other ways that a government can encourage its SOEs to invest in low-carbon alternatives. In contrast, many SOEs operate with nonfinancial mandates, market protections, and other conditions that limit their responsiveness to carbon pricing mechanisms that are effective in changing private sector behavior. There are other ways to alter public sector companies so that they embrace a greener pathway without being directed, especially if a firm’s management determines the pathway will serve its corporate interests. This can be especially important for state-owned companies that have the political weight to resist government climate policy pressures. In emerging economies with large SOE emissions and with governments willingly direct their SOEs, using these companies to reduce emissions is a policy tactic that can present implementation and other advantages because it requires the government to target a limited number of companies that the state already owns and controls. How much a government prioritizes climate change relative to other goals is the most critical factor that will determine the extent to which its SOEs prioritize low-carbon investments. Successfully merging climate goals into growth objectives, at both the broader economic and the SOE-company levels, increases the likelihood that a state company will engage in the low-carbon transition in a sustained manner.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

309. Electric Vehicle Penetration and Its Impact On Global Oil Demand: A Survey of 2019 Forecast Trends

Author:
Marianne Kah
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy is undertaking a multiyear study on the prospects for and timing of peak oil demand. An essential piece of the puzzle is understanding what happens to global oil demand in the passenger vehicle sector, since it is the sector with the largest oil demand use today. Policy makers in a growing number of countries are supporting passenger vehicle electrification or a phaseout of fossil fuel passenger vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. To understand the trajectory of oil demand in this sector, it is important to comprehend the magnitude and timing of electric vehicle (EV) penetration. The pace of demand growth matters. If the world doesn’t move off oil at a rapid rate, it is important that policy makers recognize the need for investment in new oil supplies to prevent supply shortages and accompanying oil price spikes. Numerous studies analyzing the impact of EVs on oil demand have been published. It is difficult to compare these studies because they do not define the passenger vehicle sector the same way or provide underlying assumptions on a comparable basis. Last year, the author conducted a survey of all available global electric passenger vehicle penetration forecasts to compare underlying assumptions and the impact on oil demand. The author conducted a similar survey in 2019 to understand how views on EV penetration are changing. This report describes the results from the 2019 survey and indicates how views have changed since last year. Rationale for Studying the Passenger Vehicle Sector As shown in figure 1, the passenger vehicle sector is the largest sector of oil use, representing about one-quarter of the oil demand barrel. The passenger vehicle sector is a target for policy makers because full penetration of EVs could ultimately take nearly 25 million barrels per day of oil use out of the market. However, it is important to understand the other 75 percent of the oil demand barrel before assessing the prospects of peak oil demand. It should be noted that the passenger vehicle sector gets a disproportionate amount of attention from policy makers and the media because of the current focus on electrification and the greater ease of electrifying passenger cars versus other modes of transportation. For example, it is easier to electrify a passenger car than a heavy-duty truck, where the large and costly batteries required will reduce cargo carrying capacity due to weight limits on roads. It is also more challenging to electrify airplanes than passenger cars.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

310. Mapping, Measuring, and Managing Methane: The Critical Role of a Potent Climate Pollutant

Author:
Deborah Gordon and Frances Reuland
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Earth's temperature is rising to dangerous levels. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly urgent. Although carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas, short-lived climate pollutants like methane are rapidly accelerating global warming in the near term. Methane emissions are on the rise. The global growth in oil and gas production and consumption is a prime driver. A new report released today by researchers at the Watson Institute identifies a multi-pronged approach for mapping and measuring methane and provides new tools to more effectively manage this super pollutant. Under a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, authors Deborah Gordon, Watson Institute Senior Fellow, and Frances Reuland, former Brown University Researcher, assess the many ways that methane escapes from the oil and gas sector, both unintentionally and purposefully. Using a first-of-its-kind model under development, the Oil Climate Index + Gas, they estimate that oil operations are at greater risk for intentional venting and flaring of methane while gas operations pose a higher risk of inadvertent fugitive methane and accidental releases. The ability to focus detection and policymaking on the operators who bear direct emissions responsibility holds out the best prospects for methane reductions worldwide. While governments, NGOs, and companies continue to improve their methods to pinpoint and measure methane, difficulties remain. Overcoming these barriers requires: increased transparency and data collection; improved oversight through monitoring, reporting, and verification; regulations and binding agreements; research and development (R&D) and technology transfer; and financial incentives and penalties. In order to offer durable climate solutions, efforts to mitigate methane must be designed to withstand future political pressures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Pollution, Fossil Fuels, and Methane
Political Geography:
Global Focus