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211. La industria española de defensa ante los nuevos conflictos: capacidades a aportar

Author:
Christian D. Villanueva
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Conflictos como los de Nagorno-Karabaj, el Donbás, Libia, Siria o Yemen han demostrado que incluso en escenarios tan diferentes, la difusión de los avances clave que protagonizaron la Revolución en los Asuntos Militares de la Información, es un hecho. Es más, la mayor parte de dichos avances están tan consolidados, que ya son de uso cotidiano no solo por parte de numerosos Estados, sino por sus proxiese, incluso, por parte de grupos terroristas y criminales transnacionales. Este fenómeno está íntimamente asociado a la erosión de la superioridad militar estadounidense, país que ve cómo la República Popular de China o la Federación Rusa, pero también Corea del Norte o Irán son capaces de retar a la otrora superpotencia. En este escenario, conscientes de la necesidad de compensar los avances realizados por el resto de actores, los EE. UU. han lanzado una serie de iniciativas, como la Third Offset Strategy, encaminados a lograr nuevos desarrollos tecnológicos y armamentísticos susceptibles de desembocar en una nueva Revolución en los Asuntos Militares o, quizá, en una Revolución Militar en toda regla. En este complejo contexto, en el que confluirán conflictos librados con medios heredados, con las nuevas armas, sistemas y plataformas y con la entrada en servicio de desarrollos que todavía no imaginamos, la industria española de defensa deberá luchar por sobrevivir, sabiendo que su principal cliente -el Ministerio de Defensa de España-, se encuentra en una situación muy delicada de cara a afrontar esta nueva etapa.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Conflict, Strategic Competition, Defense Industry, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

212. La industria de defensa en el mundo: hechos estilizados y tendencias

Author:
Antonio Fonfría
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Al igual que en otros ámbitos, las transformaciones tecnológicas, junto con su elevada velocidad han ido incorporándose en los sistemas de armas a través de la industria de defensa mundial. Sin embargo, no es posible conocer hasta qué punto los nuevos liderazgos tecnológicos están socavando los cimientos de los que había hasta ahora.Junto a ello, los cambios en los ámbitos geopolítico y geoeconómico están generando una realidad en la que aspectos como el comercio internacional de armamento, la irrupción de las PYME en el sector o, en lo que a la UE se refiere, el impulso a la política de defensa, transforman la morfología y relaciones entre los agentes que intervienen en este mercado. ¿Cuáles pueden ser las tendencias de futuro considerando los principales hechos estilizados que se observan en la actualidad?
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Weapons, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

213. Democratization, Poverty Reduction and Risk Mitigation in Fragile and Post-Conflict States

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe recession in recent decades, with a cumulative loss to global GDP of around $9 trillion. Climate disasters continue to affect the most vulnerable populations and countries, affecting more than 50 million people in 2020. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience have been insufficient in recent years. Global investments only reached $30 billion in 2017-2018, against estimated needs in developing countries between $140 and $300 billion per year by 2030. As governments worldwide design and begin implementing post-pandemic economic recovery programs, investments in adaptation and resilience provide a unique opportunity to generate jobs, restart economic growth, and tackle the inequities made more acute by the pandemic. We discuss practical policy and program options to achieve these multiple objectives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

214. AI is Shaping the Future of War

Author:
Amir Husain
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Several years ago, before many were talking about artificial intelligence (AI) and its practical applications to the field of battle, retired United States Marine Corps General John Allen, and I began a journey to not only investigate the art of the possible with AI, but also to identify its likely implications on the character and conduct of war. We wrote about how developments in AI could lead to what we referred to as “Hyperwar” — a type of conflict and competition so automated that it would collapse the decision action loop, eventually minimizing human control over most decisions. Since then, my goal has been to encourage the organizational transformation necessary to adopt safer, more explainable AI systems to maintain our competitive edge, now that the technical transformation is at our doorstep. Through hundreds of interactions with defense professionals, policymakers, national leaders and defense industry executives, General Allen and I have taken this message to our defense community—that a great change is coming and one that might see us lose our pole position. During the course of these exchanges, one fact became increasingly clear; artificial intelligence and the effects it is capable of unleashing have been gravely misunderstood. On one hand, there are simplistic caricatures that go too far; the Terminator running amuck, an instantiation of artificial intelligence as a single computer system with a personality and a self-appointed goal, much like the fictionalized Skynet. Or an intelligent robot so powerful and skilled that it would render us humans useless. On the other hand, there are simplifications of AI as a feature; trivializations in the name of practicality by those who cannot see beyond today and misconstrue AI’s holistic potential as the specific capabilities of one or two products they have used, or most likely, merely seen. I would hear from some that fully autonomous systems should (and more amusingly, could) be banned and this would somehow take care of the “problem.” Others thought the proponents of artificial intelligence had overstated the case and there would never be synthetic intelligence superior to humans in the conduct of war. But artificial intelligence is not like a nuclear weapon; a great big tangible thing that can be easily detected, monitored or banned. It is a science, much like physics or mathematics. Its applications will lead not merely to incremental enhancements in weapon systems capability but require a fundamental recalculation of what constitutes deterrence and military strength. For example, the combination of AI elements—visual recognition, language analysis, the automated extraction of topical hierarchies (or ontologies), control of systems with reinforcement learning, simulation-based prediction, and advanced forms of search—with existing technologies and platforms, can rapidly yield entirely new and unforeseen capabilities. The integration of new AI into an existing platform represents a surprise in its own right. But the complex interactions of such platforms with others like them can create exponential, insurmountable surprise. Which current conventional system deters such an AI creation? These reactions were all telling. Rather than seeing artificial intelligence as a science, people were reacting to caricatures or linear projections based on the past. Specifically, the contention that since no AI has been built thus far that can exhibit long-term autonomy in battle, such an AI could never be built. Or that if it were, then it would take over the world of its own volition. These reactions would not be as problematic if they were coming from ordinary people playing the role of observers. But seeing people in positions of power and authority—participants—espouse such thinking was worrisome. Why? Simply because artificial intelligence will lead to the most important capabilities and technologies yet built by humankind, and a failure to understand the nature of artificial intelligence will cause us to fall behind in terms of taking advantage of all it has to offer in the near, medium, and long term. The stakes are high beyond description.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, War, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

215. Democracy by Design: An Affirmative Response to the Illiberal Use of Technology for 2021

Author:
Kara Frederick
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Aglobal contest between democracies and autocracies is raging on the digital front. Technology stands to alter the balance between free, open societies and closed, repressive regimes. Nation states in direct competition with the United States seek to project global influence by shaping an existing digital order to their will. Impulses toward illiberal use of technology at home threaten to curtail individual liberties, constrict opportunity, and erode a truly open society. Democracies do not yet have a model for how to confront this. In the United States, a roadmap for a solution must start with the fundamental question: How should U.S. technology companies, with the help of the U.S. government, respond to the illiberal use of technology by authoritarian actors abroad? This report contends with this question by identifying concrete actions and threat-mitigating strategies that contain the input of government, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. It provides starting points to address the systemic risk inherent in dealing with authoritarian regimes and also examines cost imposition on those complicit in tech-enabled human rights abuses. Yet a strategy aimed only at staunching the illiberal use of technology will fail in the long term. Instead, the U.S. government and tech companies alike must recruit democratic allies to purvey an affirmative agenda that promotes digital freedom across the globe. This report proposes an agenda that stresses privacy leadership by the United States and its technology companies. It identifies areas of collaboration for U.S. allies and democratic partners, like digital trade, foreign law enforcement requests for data, and technical standards. This report’s affirmative agenda also contains an imperative for U.S. tech companies to build commercial norms toward digital freedom and incentivize transparency within their own ranks. For digital freedom to prevail over authoritarian uses of technology, democracies must present something better. Together, they must establish an alternative model for the use of technology globally. These recommendations build that democratic case, starting with the United States.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

216. Rebooting Congressional Cybersecurity Oversight

Author:
Carrie Cordero and David Thaw
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Cybersecurity oversight is due for a reboot. This paper explores the need for refreshed congressional oversight of cybersecurity. After laying out why cybersecurity oversight presents special challenges, this paper suggests that the disparate nature of the cybersecurity policymaking legal framework is mismatched to the nature of the cybersecurity problem, resulting in difficulty legislating in this space. It then provides two key recommendations to guide a congressional cybersecurity oversight reboot. Cybersecurity is a broad challenge spanning many disciplines and industries. This paper argues that the current “patchwork” legal framework is ill suited to address cybersecurity questions either for legislative oversight or effective policymaking. The paper provides an overview of the nature and scope of the cybersecurity problem, with a focus on how the complexity of the field affects congressional oversight activities. Congress has been conducting a substantial amount of oversight in this area in recent years. Those efforts, however, have not yet resulted in legislative actions that have demonstrably improved national cybersecurity. This paper seeks to aid the effort to craft legal authorities that deal with an increasingly complex set of cyberthreats. This short exposition provides a path to rebooting Congress’ approach to cybersecurity oversight in a way that would allow these issues to be addressed more comprehensively.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

217. Small Groups, Big Weapons: The Nexus of Emerging Technologies and Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

Author:
Stephen Hummel and F. John Burpo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Historically, only nation-states have had the capacity and resources to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) due to the significant capital, infrastructure, and intellectual capacity required to develop and maintain a WMD program. In recent years, however, this paradigm has been shifting, particularly for non-state actors. The commercialization of emerging technologies is reducing the financial, intellectual, and material barriers required for WMD development and employment. This report surveys three emerging technologies—synthetic biology, additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing), and unmanned aerial systems—and examines the nexus of each with nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons agent proliferation. It examines how non-state actors might use these emerging technologies to overcome traditional barriers against the development and employment of WMD. This product, a joint collaboration of the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point, is a timely primer for policymakers, scientists, and security specialists concerned with the impact of emerging technologies on WMD development and terrorists’ capabilities broadly.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

218. Artificial Intimacy

Author:
Aspen Digital
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
For all of the gains that artificial intelligent (AI) systems allow, society is only now beginning to orient itself to the tremendous ethical and political issues emerging as a result of AI’s prevalence in our society. For example, recent critiques of facial recognition software bring to light issues of algorithmic bias, data irregularities, human rights violations, and government surveillance. In response, various principles and values-based governance models are furiously being developed to direct the future of AI design. The report of the 2020 Aspen Institute Roundtable on Artificial Intelligence explored the intersection of human intimacy and artificial intelligence, investigating how different human-machine relationships may affect the development of human behavior and emotions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Emotions, Artificial Intelligence, Behavior, Robotics, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

219. Can You Hear Me? Taking Mediation Online: Reflections from Practice

Author:
Florence Mandelik and Ayat Mohamed
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
In mediation, where trust-building and confidentiality are vital, the current shift towards virtual and online interactions brings a set of new challenges for practitioners. The authors summarise early takeaways from online engagements with and between civil actors in the context of mediation projects, focusing on the opportunities and challenges that virtual tools and online engagements bring to process design and implementation. In online settings the convener should use several tools from the IT tool box in tandem, carefully selecting them to match the objective of the engagement with the overall context. Process design has to ensure that all the requirements of virtual interaction, including a code of conduct and rules of procedure, are met in order to achieve the desired result. The brief discusses this in detail, including the selection of appropriate IT applications and dealing with participants’ computer literacy and internet access challenges. In particular, it emphasises how active steps should be taken to foster the inclusion of traditionally marginalised groups, including women.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Mediation, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

220. Trade and Transport Margins in Pharmaceuticals and other R&D-Intensive Industries

Author:
Tom Martin
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Spending for prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products totaled $413 billion in 2012 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) trade and transports margin data. Just over half of this spending (52%) accrued to the pharmaceutical companies that produced the medicines, while the remainder was divided between transport and wholesale margins (21%) and retail margins (26%). Compared to other research and development (R&D)-intensive manufacturing industries with significant consumer sales, the pharmaceutical and medicines manufacturing industry ranks second in terms of R&D intensity behind communications equipment, and receives the second lowest producers’ share of total spending after other miscellaneous manufacturing. Thus, the pharmaceutical industry is unique among manufacturing industries in that it devotes a large share of its revenue to R&D, despite receiving a considerably smaller share of total spending.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Trade, Transportation, Medicine, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Global Focus