Search

Begin New Search Topic Risk Political Geography Global Focus

1. Cyber Mapping the Financial System

Author:
Jan-Philipp Brauchle, Matthias Göbel, Jens Seiler, and Christoph Von Busekist
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risks present a growing threat for individual agents in the financial system: banks, insurers, central counterparties, and the like. However, cyber events may also have the potential to destabilize the financial system as a whole. While dedicated microprudential regulatory and supervisory regimes are in place or are being developed to manage cyber risks especially at credit institutions, what is lacking is a systemic view of cyber risks that particularly sheds light on concentrations and contagion channels that are material to the financial system.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Finance, Networks, Risk, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Shock Mobility: Long term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and lock-down

Author:
Nina Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Shock mobilities are sudden human movements made in response to acute disruptions, such as the present COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike planned migration, shock mobility encompasses various degrees of forced migration or can be categorized as reactive migration caused by a crisis situation. Forced migration often starts with shock mobility, but shock mobility does not always lead to protracted forced migration. FUTURE IMPLICATIONS ■ Shock mobilities may affect broader socioeconomic relations in the future. Five manifestations of shock mobilities as ‘link moments’ provide clues as to how. ■ How shock mobilities will be received and internalized in the years ahead is uncertain. They could yield significant impacts on state-citizen relations, as well as on relations between different populations. ■ The ‘shocks’ give us a glimpse into the world we are entering. Tomorrow’s normality will grow out of today’s disruption. Therefore, a better understanding of ongoing shock mobilities will help us analyse potential problems for decades to come.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Fragile States, Conflict, Risk, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Injecting Humanity: Community-Focused Responses for People Exiting Violent Extremist Conflict

Author:
Chris Bosley
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Communities worldwide face the challenge of reintegrating people exiting violent extremist conflicts. This report draws on established programs and the recommendations of authoritative bodies to examine community-based approaches to their rehabilitation. Given that criminal justice responses may not always be possible or appropriate, recovery-focused approaches such as resocialization and reconciliation are recommended to minimize risk and foster resilience.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Conflict, Criminal Justice, Risk, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

4. Cyber Risk Scenarios, the Financial System, and Systemic Risk Assessment

Author:
Lincoln Kaffenberger and Emanuel Kopp
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risk has become a key issue for stakeholders in the financial system. But its properties are still not precisely characterized and well understood. To help develop a better understanding, we discuss the properties of cyber risk and categorize various cyber risk scenarios. Furthermore, we present a conceptual framework for assessing systemic cyber risk to individual countries. This involves analyzing cyber risk exposures, assessing cybersecurity and preparedness capabilities, and identifying buffers available to absorb cyber risk–induced shocks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Finance, Internet, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Creating a Euro Area Safe Asset without Mutualizing Risk (Much)

Author:
Alvaro Leandro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper explains and evaluates three proposals to create “safe assets” for the euro area based on sovereign bonds, in which sovereign risk is limited through diversification and some form of seniority. These assets would be held by banks and other financial institutions, replacing concentrated exposures to their own sovereigns. The paper focuses on three ideas: (1) to create multitranche “sovereign bond-backed securities” (SBBS), of which the senior tranche would constitute a safe asset; (2) to create a senior, publicly owned financial intermediary that would issue a bond backed by a diversified portfolio of sovereign loans (“E-bonds”); and (3) to issue sovereign bonds in several tranches and induce banks to hold a diversified pool of senior sovereign bonds (“multitranche national bond issuance”). Public attention (including public criticism) has so far focused on the first idea; the other two have not yet been seriously debated. The authors find that none of the competing proposals entirely dominates the others. SBBS do not deserve most of the criticism to which they have been subjected. At the same time, E-bonds and multitranche national bond issuance have several interesting features—including inducing fiscal discipline—and warrant further exploration.
Topic:
Economics, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Banks, and Risk
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

6. The Rise of Global Innovation by US Multinationals Poses Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For decades, US multinational corporations (MNCs) conducted nearly all their research and development (R&D) within the United States. Their focus on R&D at home helped establish the United States as the unrivaled leader of innovation and technology advances in the world economy. Since the late 1990s, however, the amount of R&D conducted overseas by US MNCs has grown nearly fourfold and its geographic distribution has expanded from a few advanced industrial countries to many parts of the developing world, creating an innovation system that spans the globe. Like many aspects of globalization, including the offshoring of manufacturing over recent decades, the globalization of R&D raises concerns about US competitiveness and loss of technological leadership. At the same time, the spreading geographic location of innovation presents opportunities for US-based companies if the right policies are adopted to seize them. The research presented in this Policy Brief demonstrates that US innovators continue to remain involved in important ways in US MNCs' global R&D activities, and fears of a hollowing out of US capacity to innovate—based probably on previous fears about the hollowing out of US-based manufacturing—may be overstated. Indeed, the large and growing pool of highly educated scientists and engineers in the developing world could increase the rate of global productivity growth, to the advantage of US-based companies and the world in general. The authors conclude that a productive way to capitalize on the globalization of MNC R&D is not to oppose it but to combine emerging-market talent with MNC experience so that innovation can flourish to improve global living standards and fuel economic progress.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Multinational Corporations, Risk, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

7. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Union Cold Storage and the Birth of Multinational Tax Planning, 1897-1922

Author:
James Hollis and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:
Today’s corporate managers know that while tax planning may improve the bottom line, it also carries a downside in terms of reputational risk. The past decade has seen the rise of a phenomenon dubbed “tax shaming,” with legislators, activists and the popular press condemning multinationals for participating in “aggressive” or “unethical” tax avoidance. This campaign has occasionally been associated with dramatic changes in corporate policy. In 2012, for example, the global coffee chain Starbucks announced that it was voluntarily increasing its tax payments in the United Kingdom. And the following year, one of Britain’s leading banks, Barclays, closed down its profitable tax structuring division, citing the hostile political climate. Advocates of corporate social responsibility (CSR) promote the idea of a moral dimension to tax compliance, although it remains to be seen whether firms that consciously adopt an ethical approach to tax obligations will outperform their rivals. Some skeptics dismiss the CSR agenda as a public relations exercise; others regard it as a potential threat to legal certainty or economic competitiveness. A few practitioners even claim that “tax shaming” is a dangerous step towards “taxation by mob rule.”
Topic:
History, Capitalism, Ethics, Business, Multinational Corporations, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Assessing Global Financial Stability

Author:
Tobias Adrian
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the decade since the global financial crisis, there has understandably been great concern about potential threats to global financial stability, and policymakers have wisely remained vigilant in watching for warning signs of possible economic risk. At the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we remain committed to providing our 189 member countries with farsighted analyses of trends in the financial markets, thus guiding them toward sound policy choices that help maintain economic stability.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic growth, Risk, IMF, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Climate Security: Making it #Doable

Author:
Karolina Eklöw, Florian Krampe, Malin Mobjörk, and Dan Smith
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19–20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus