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61. 2014 Global Peace Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the eighth edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks nations according to their level of peace. The Index is composed of 22 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and ranks 162 independent states, covering 99.6 percent of the world’s population. The index gauges global peace using three broad themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2014 GPI and its seven-year trend analysis, this year’s report includes an updated analysis of the economic impact of violence as well as a detailed assessment of country risk using risk models developed by IEP based on its unique datasets.
Topic:
Security, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves

Author:
Sewon Hur and Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Emerging economies, unlike advanced economies, have accumulated large foreign reserve holdings. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in reducing debt rollover crises ("sudden stops"), akin to the role of bank reserves in preventing bank runs. We find that a small, unexpected, and permanent increase in rollover risk accounts for the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, the subsequent increase in foreign reserves holdings, and the salient resilience of emerging economies to sudden stops ever since. Finally, we show that a policy of pooling reserves can substantially reduce the reserves needed by emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Risk, and Foreign Reserves
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Revenge of the Steamroller: ABCP as a Window on Risk Choices

Author:
Carlos Ó. Arteta, Mark Carey, Ricardo Correa, and Jason Kotter
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We empirically examine financial institutions' motivations to take systematic bad-tail risk in the form of sponsorship of credit-arbitrage asset-backed commercial paper vehicles. A run on debt issued by such vehicles played a key role in causing and propagating the liquidity crisis that began in the summer of 2007. We find evidence consistent with important roles for both owner-manager agency problems and government-induced distortions, especially government control or ownership of banks.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Risk, Banking, and Commercialization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Default

Author:
Urban J. Jermann and Vivian Zhanwei Yue
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper studies firms' usage of interest rate swaps to manage risk in a model economy driven by aggregate productivity shocks, inflation shocks, and counter-cyclical idiosyncratic productivity risk. Consistent with empirical evidence, firms in the model are fixed-rate payers, and swap positions are negatively correlated with the term spread. In the model, swaps affect firms' investment decisions and debt pricing very moderately, and the availability of swaps generates only small economic gains for the typical firm.
Topic:
Debt, Business, Interest Rates, Risk, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Portfolio Diversification and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Foreign Investment

Author:
Alexandra Tabova
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper I explore the role of portfolio diversification in explaining the distribution of foreign investment across countries. I capture the portfolio diversification motive by a measure of country-specific riskiness, "covariance risk", which I construct as how countries' growth rates covary with the stochastic discount factor of a representative international investor. My key new empirical finding is a strong and significant correlation between this new measure of country riskiness and foreign investment allocations. Less risky countries, i.e. countries whose growth rates are more highly correlated with the investor's stochastic discount factor, receive larger investment shares than more risky countries. I interpret this result as evidence that investors do take into account diversification opportunities, not only for portfolio investment decisions, but also for foreign direct investment decisions. My empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions of standard portfolio allocation models.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, Risk, Fiscal Policy, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Fund Management and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Elias Bengtsson
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Fund managers play an important role in increasing efficiency and stability in financial markets. But research also indicates that fund management in certain circumstances may contribute to the buildup of systemic risk and severity of financial crises. The global financial crisis provided a number of new experiences on the contribution of fund managers to systemic risk. In this article, we focus on these lessons from the crisis. We distinguish between three sources of systemic risk in the financial system that may arise from fund management: insufficient credit risk transfer to fund managers; runs on funds that cause sudden reductions in funding to banks and other financial entities; and contagion through business ties between fund managers and their sponsors. Our discussion relates to the current intense debate on the role the so-called shadow banking system played in the global financial crisis. Several regulatory initiatives have been launched or suggested to reduce the systemic risk arising from non-bank financial entities, and we briefly discuss the likely impact of these on the sources of systemic risk outlined in the article.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Risk, Credit, Liquidity, and Shadow Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Impact of natural disaster on public sector corruption

Author:
Eiji Yamamura
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper uses inter-country panel data obtained during the period 1990–2010 to examine how the occurrence of natural disasters has affected corruption within the public sector. There are a number of new findings from this study. (1) Disaster with the large amount of damage increase corruption not only for developing countries but also for developed countries. (2) The effect of disasters is greater in developed countries than in developing countries. (3) In the developed countries, frequency of occurrence of disaster plays important role on increasing corruption. This suggests that foreseeable disasters increase corruption. In developed countries, people have an incentive to live within disaster-prone areas to seek compensation.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Natural Disasters, Institutions, Public Sector, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. Models-as-Usual for Unusual Risks? On the Value of Catastrophic Climate Change

Author:
Antoine Bommier, Bruno Lanz, and Stéphane Zuber
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We study the role of alternative intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast the traditional “discounted utility” model, which assumes risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, with a multiplicative choice model that displays risk aversion in that dimension. First, we show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same “business as usual” economy for a given interest rate and no pollution externality. Second, once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate is a function of the pollution stock, multiplicative preferences recommend a much more stringent policy response. An illustration in the context of climate change indicates that switching to the multiplicative preference representation has a similar effect, in terms of policy recommendations, as scaling up the schedule of the hazard rate by a factor of 100.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Risk, and Discounting
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzle

Author:
Juan M. Londono and Hao Zhou
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper presents evidence that the foreign exchange appreciation is predictable by the currency variance risk premium at a medium 6-month horizon and by the stock variance risk premium at a short 1-month horizon. Although currency variance risk premiums are highly correlated with each other over longer horizons, their correlations with stock variance risk premiums are quite low. Interestingly the currency variance risk premium has no predictive power for stock returns. We rationalize these findings in a consumption-based asset pricing model with orthogonal local and global economic uncertainties. In our model the market is incomplete in the sense that the global uncertainty is not priced by local stock markets and is therefore a forex-specific phenomenon—the currency uncertainty’s effects on the expected stock return are off-setting between the cash flow channel and the volatility channel.
Topic:
Economics, Risk, Currency, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns Around the World

Author:
Ricardo Correa, Kuan-Hui Lee, Horacio Sapriza, and Gustavo Suarez
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better-positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Governance, Risk, Credit, Bonds, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus