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1. The Global Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2025

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The global terrorist threat remains persistent and pervasive as the world moves into 2025. Armed conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and destabilisation by both State and non-State actors are redefining international stability. The influence of groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias underscores the enduring risks. Key challenges include geopolitical rivalries, radicalisation and increasingly sophisticated cyber and physical attacks. With the Middle East at the epicentre of escalating tensions and Africa emerging as a new hotspot, coordinated international efforts are essential to prevent and counter threats. States must strengthen cooperation in intelligence, security and strategic foresight to deal with a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous global landscape.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Collaboration, Threat Assessment, 2023 Gaza War, Transnational Threats, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

2. Exploring trends and research in countering and preventing extremism & violent extremism

Author:
Denis Suljić and Emma Allen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
Radicalization leading to extremism and violent extremism still threatens global security and safety. The COVID-19 pandemic led to new trends and developments important for experts and practitioners working on preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism to consider in their prevention efforts. Considering the ever-changing landscape of extremism and violent extremism, researchers should regularly assess emerging challenges and shed light on effective preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism strategies and solutions for policymakers and practitioners to draw upon and to understand and respond to new and developing trends. This compilation of research essays spans various topics related to countering and preventing extremism, presented at Hedayah’s International Research Conference in Granada, Spain, in May 2022. The collection of essays intends to share insights from academics and practitioners on their professional experiences and cutting-edge research findings related to the broader efforts in countering and preventing extremism, and serves as a summary of discussions and findings highlighted at the conference. Hedayah’s International Research Conference has consistently aided in expanding research on countering extremism and violent extremism spanning over seven years. First, the conference presents recent, cutting-edge research, considering both academic and practitioner-led findings. This ensures that the presented findings include those with rigorous academic standards and the perspectives of the practitioner community. Second, the conference panelists are invited by Hedayah to contribute to the subsequent Edited Volume to publish their research findings. The Edited Volume ensures that these research results are disseminated beyond the conference attendees, and are made available to a larger network of policymakers, researchers and practitioners attempting to strengthen their activities, research, policies, and programs in this space. Therefore, the conference is designed to cover cross-cutting subjects and overarching themes across different panels, such as gender, youth, and cross-disciplinary challenges and lessons. Hedayah’s seventh Research Conference brought a range of policymakers, practitioners and academic experts together on issues related to countering and preventing extremism and violent extremism. It presented research in a discussion-oriented forum, providing our vibrant and diverse community with the opportunity to engage in meaningful discussions and share novel ideas and suggestions on addressing new and emerging extremist and violent extremist threats, trends, and suggestions on how they could be treated. The sessions, divided across three days, covered diverse themes and topics. The panel that opened the conference discussions focused on the implications of COVID-19 on extremist and violent extremist actors, and efforts to address these new developments and emerging threats. Sessions that followed covered the role of the internet and new technology, the effects of environmental changes on extremism and violent extremism, the global rise of the radical right, and the unceasing threat of ideologically-inspired extremist, violent extremist and terrorist groups. The conference also included in-person and virtual breakout sessions, including a session concentrating on the future directions of the field, and another exploring the ethical challenges of research on preventing and countering extremism, along with innovative methodologies and techniques.
Topic:
Radicalization, Far Right, COVID-19, Countering Violent Extremism, Misogyny, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), and Eco-Fascism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Psychological Determinants of Individual Radicalisation

Author:
Elzbieta Posluszna
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper aims to define the psychological foundations of lone wolf activism. The analysis that facilitated attaining this goal was based on the Nietzschean concept of resentment theory of compensatory revaluating values that explain the relationships between inferiority and fundamentalism, fanaticism, and ideologically motivated violence. Based on a phenomenological examination of the phenomenon, the author demonstrates that lone wolf activism is founded on two psychologically and sociologically determined successive processes. The first one occurs when a sense of personal inferiority becomes the source of an envy-based hostile attitude toward the world. Later on, this feeling, due to personality defence mechanisms, which bring about the falsification of “primary desires” and the generation of “secondary desires”, transforms into fundamentalism. The second process takes place when, as the result of fundamentalist legitimisation that arise on the level of social rivalry, given fundamentalism is destituted, resulting in fanaticism. The author believes that the knowledge of both processes is necessary to recognise and combat the terrorist activity of lone ideologically motivated individuals.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Psychology, Legitimacy, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Political Warfare and Propaganda

Author:
James J. F. Forest, Daniel De Wit, Kyleanne Hunter, Emma Jouenne, Glen Segell, Lev Topor, Alexander Tabachnik, Donald M. Bishop, Phil Zeman, Michael Cserkits, and Anthony Patrick
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The digital age has greatly expanded the terrain and opportunities for a range of foreign influence efforts. A growing number of countries have invested significantly in their capabilities to disseminate online propaganda and disinformation worldwide, while simultaneously establishing information dominance at home. Each of the contributions to this issue addresses the central theme of influencing perceptions and behavior. First, Daniel de Wit draws lessons from a historical analysis of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS), America’s intelligence and special operations organization in World War II. In addition to its efforts to collect intelligence on the Axis powers and to arm and train resistance groups behind enemy lines, the OSS also served as America’s primary psychological warfare agency, using a variety of “black propaganda” methods to sow dissension and confusion in enemy ranks.82 As noted earlier, psychological warfare plays a significant role in the conduct of today’s military operations, so de Wit’s research offers important historical lessons for contemporary campaign planners. Next, Kyleanne Hunter and Emma Jouenne examine the uniquely troubling effects of spreading misogynistic views online. Their analysis of three diverse case studies—the U.S. military, the incel movement, and ISIS— reveals how unchecked online misogyny can result in physical behavior that can threaten human and national security. Glen Segell then explores how perceptions about cybersecurity operations can have positive or negative impacts on civil-military relations, drawing on a case study of the Israeli experience. Lev Topor and Alexander Tabachnik follow with a study of how Russia uses the strategies and tactics of digital influence warfare against other countries, while continually seeking to strengthen its information dominance over Russian citizens. And Donald M. Bishop reveals how other countries do this as well, including China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. Each is engaged in these same kinds of efforts to control the information that circulates within their respective societies, while using various forms of propaganda against other countries to strengthen their influence and national power. Phil Zeman’s contribution to this issue looks at how China and Russia are trying to fracture American and Western societies through information, disinformation, economic coercion, and the creation of economic dependencies— in many cases capitalizing on specific attributes and vulnerabilities of a target nation to achieve their strategic objectives. Through these efforts, he concludes, China and Russia hope to prevent the will or ability of American or Western states to respond to an aggressive act. Next, Michael Cserkits explains how a society’s perceptions about armed forces can be influenced by cinematic productions and anime, drawing on a case study comparison of Japan and the United States. And finally, Anthony Patrick examines how social media penetration and internet connectivity could impact the likelihood that parties within a conventional intrastate conflict will enter negotiations. As a collection, these articles make a significant contribution to the scholarly research literature on political warfare and propaganda. The authors shed light on the need for research-based strategies and policies that can improve our ability to identify, defend against, and mitigate the consequences of influence efforts. However, when reflecting on the compound security threats described at the beginning of this introduction—involving both cyberattacks and influence attacks—a startling contrast is revealed: we have committed serious resources toward cybersecurity but not toward addressing the influence issues examined in this issue. We routinely install firewalls and other security measures around our computer network systems, track potential intrusion attempts, test and report network vulnerabilities, hold training seminars for new employees, and take many other measures to try and mitigate cybersecurity threats. In contrast, there are no firewalls or intrusion detection efforts defending us against digital influence attacks of either foreign or domestic origin. Government sanctions and social media deplatforming efforts respond to influence attackers once they have been identified as such, but these efforts take place after attacks have already occurred, sometimes over the course of several years. The articles of this issue reflect an array of efforts to influence the perceptions, emotions, and behavior of human beings at both individual and societal levels. In the absence of comprehensive strategies to more effectively defend against these efforts, the United States risks losing much more than military advantage; we are placing at risk the perceived legitimacy of our systems and institutions of governance, as well as our economic security, our ability to resolve social disagreements peacefully, and much more.83 Further, many other nations are also facing the challenges of defending against foreign influence efforts. As such, the transnational nature of influence opportunities and capabilities in the digital age may require a multinational, coordinated response. In the years ahead, further research will be needed to uncover strategies for responding to the threat of digital influence warfare with greater sophistication and success.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Politics, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Women, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Internet, History, World War II, Propaganda, Deterrence, Disinformation, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Digital Policy, Psychological Warfare, and Misogyny
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, Global Focus, and United States of America

5. The Pursuit of Extremes: Three Models to Understand Radicalization / En busca de los extremos: tres modelos para comprender la radicalización

Author:
Roberto Muelas Lobato
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The recent proliferation of cases of radicalization around the world has placed this issue on the agenda of the nations. Nowadays, the radicalization, understood as a process by which a growing commitment to an extremist political or religious ideology is reached, represents a challenge that we must deal with in order to improve our societies in terms of security. However, much of the academic procedures used to understand this phenomenon lack the empirical validity that allows us to rely on the knowledge they provide. This practice has led to the existence of a large amount of material related to radicalization, especially after 9/11, but not to the consolidation and validation of the knowledge we possess. Because of this, in this review we propose to explain three of the theoretical models that focus on violent radicalization. These three models mostly come from social psychology and have empirical baggage that supports its validity. These are: the 3N model (also known as the significant quest theory), the devoted actors model and the approach of the two pyramids. These three models focus, respectively, on the theories of motivation, on identity and values, and on the difference between cognitions and actions. Likewise, each one proposes different explanatory and triggering factors, as well as different dependent variables that explain these factors from violent behavior to sacrifice. In them we find differences and similarities that validate and complement some of the processes they propose. Therefore, knowing and understanding them will provide us with a deeper knowledge when it comes to understanding radicalization, studying it and making decisions for its prevention and/or reduction.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Radicalization, and Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Digital Jihad: Online Communication and Violent Extremism

Author:
Francesco Marone
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The internet offers tremendous opportunities for violent extremists across the ideological spectrum and at a global level. In addition to propaganda, digital technologies have transformed the dynamics of radical mobilisation, recruitment and participation. Even though the jihadist threat has seemingly declined in the West, the danger exists of the internet being an environment where radical messages can survive and even prosper. Against this background, this ISPI report investigates the current landscape of jihadist online communication, including original empirical analysis. Specific attention is also placed on potential measures and initiatives to address the threat of online violent extremism. The volume aims to present important points for reflection on the phenomenon in the West (including Italy) and beyond.
Topic:
Communications, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Internet, Ideology, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Italy and Global Focus

7. Reality, Ideology and Terminology: between Radicalization, Political Violence and Jihadi Terrorism / Realidad, ideología y terminología: entre la radicalización, la violencia política y el terrorismo yihadista

Author:
Hana Jalloul Muro
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Avoiding violent radicalization is one of the great debates and challenges that we find today in Western societies. Although not all radicalization must be linked directly to violence or terrorism, we must prevent a priori radicalization so that it does not lead to the aforementioned processes. In the same way, the implementation of adequate and effective measures to deal with de-radicalization processes is something very necessary. The knowledge of the terminology is of vital importance to understand the meaning, development and reality of the terms presented in this publication, in order to prevent its political manipulation by state and non-state actors.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Terrorism, Radicalization, Ideology, Violence, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

8. Women, Deradicalization, and Rehabilitation: Lessons from an Expert Workshop

Author:
Rebecca Turkington and Agathe Christien
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
With the rise of violent extremist groups around the world, questions around how to disengage and reintegrate participants from these groups back into their societies have become urgent. To date, most deradicalization programs have been designed for men, and there have been few efforts to create programs that specifically address the needs of women returnees. The underlying assumption that women lack agency permeates legal and policy responses to extremism and can have serious consequences. Though women remain relatively neglected, their participation in violent extremism is only growing. Women represent up to 20% of Western recruits to the Islamic State, and Boko Haram has used female suicide bombers at unprecedented levels. As greater numbers of women are joining extremist groups, failing to investigate and prosecute them upon their return risks creating a dangerous gap in security processes.
Topic:
Security, Women, Radicalization, Rehabilitation, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Girl Ambassadors for Peace: Young Women and Girls Read and Lead to Counter Violent Extremism and Build Peace

Author:
Katrina Leclerc
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
Violent extremism has become the biggest threat of this modern age. This paper claims that violent extremism is an outcome of radicalization and that the involvement of women and girls is essential in order to counter violent extremism across the world. Throughout the paper, violent extremism and radicalization will be analyzed to further understand the importance and influence of gender mainstreaming, as well as offer a discussion regarding the importance of local grass-roots initiatives to counter violent extremism.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Women, Radicalization, and Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. A Functional Approach to Violent Radicalization. Building a Systemic Model Based on a Real Case

Author:
Miguel Peco
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
A paradox in the study of violent radicalization is that while each of the empirical findings can be explained with multiple theories, very few theories can explain a relevant number of these findings simultaneously. This paper conducts a functional behavior assessment of violent radical behavior, investigating the factors responsible for its initial learning and subsequent maintenance. Specifically, a model of radicalization is proposed that can explain a wide range of observed phenomena, accommodate apparent exceptions, and obtain testable consequences. It also challenges some firmly rooted ideas, as the alleged existence of aggressive influence practices, or brainwashing. Finally, the model can also provide valuable predictions for subsequent research, such as those related to the reversibility of the process of radicalization.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus