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1. La Intersección entre Inteligencia Artificial y Armas Nucleares: Riesgos, Beneficios y Recomendaciones

Author:
Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Las innovaciones tecnológicas han sido clave en la evolución de la defensa militar, permitiendo a los Estados obtener ventajas estratégicas, como ocurrió en 1945 con la bomba atómica. Actualmente, la inteligencia artificial (IA) impulsa una revolución similar. Aunque su uso principal es civil y empresarial, varios países la están integrando en sus capacidades militares para ganar superioridad estratégica. La IA ya se emplea con éxito en drones y análisis de macrodatos, pero también comienza a aplicarse en sistemas de armamento nuclear, lo que podría tener consecuencias imprevisibles. Este artículo examina el impacto de la IA en las armas nucleares, centrándose en los sistemas de mando y control, y sus implicaciones para el equilibrio estratégico global. Se define la IA, se analiza su uso histórico en la Guerra Fría por Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética, y se evalúan sus aplicaciones actuales. Finalmente, se proponen recomendaciones para mitigar riesgos asociados a su integración en el ámbito nuclear.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Cybersecurity Implications of Quantum Computing and Its Combined Use with Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Andrea G. Rodriguez
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Quantum computing presents new market opportunities, but also significant challenges, particularly in areas such as cybersecurity. Although still in its infancy, quantum computing is maturing rapidly. If quantum computers can provide countries with new offensive capabilities - often in combination with artificial intelligence - it is arguably investment in the quantum communications agenda - in particular quantum networks - that can provide measures and actions to improve cyber defence.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Machine Learning, Encryption, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:
Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

4. Future Warfare and Responsibility Management in the AI-based Military Decision-making Process

Author:
Alessandro Nalin and Paolo Tripodi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology for military use is growing fast. As a result, autonomous weapon systems have been able to erode humans’ decision-making power. Once such weapons have been deployed, humans will not be able to change or abort their targets. Although autonomous weapons have a significant decision-making power, currently they are not able to make ethical choices. This article focuses on the ethical implications of AI integration in the military decision-making process and how the characteristics of AI systems with machine learning (ML) capabilities might interact with human decision-making protocols. The authors suggest that in the future, such machines might be able to make ethical decisions that resemble those made by humans. A detailed and precise classification of AI systems, based on strict technical, ethical, and cultural parameters would be critical to identify which weapon is suitable and the most ethical for a given mission.
Topic:
Ethics, Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. PART II: Whale Songs of Wars Not Yet Waged: The Demise of Natural-Born Killers through Human-Machine Teamings Yet to Come

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Current human-machine dynamics in security affairs positions the human operator in the loop with artificial intelligence to conduct decisions and actions. As technological advancements in AI cognition, speed, and weapon sophistication increase, human operators are increasingly being shifted to an on the loop where AI takes more responsibility in warfare and defense decisions, whether tactical or even strategic. Human operators are also falling off the loop, trailing enhanced AI systems as the biological and physical limits because humans are not the same for artificial intelligence in narrow applications. Those likely will expand toward general AI in the coming decades, presenting significant strategic, organizational, and even existential concerns. Further, how natural humans respond and engage with increasingly advanced, even superintelligent AI as well as a singularity event will feature disruptive, transformative impacts on security affairs and even at a philosophical level discerning what war is.
Topic:
Science and Technology, War, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. PART I: The Singleton Paradox On the Future of Human-Machine Teaming and Potential Disruption of War Itself

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Technological innovation has historically been applied in war and security affairs as a new tool or means to accomplish clear political or societal goals. The rise of artificial intelligence posits a new, uncharted way forward that may be entirely unlike previous arms races and advancements in warfare, including nuclear weapons and quantum technology. This article introduces the concept of a singleton as a future artificial intelligent entity that could assume central decision making for entire organizations and even societies. In turn, this presents what is termed a “singleton paradox” for security affairs, foreign policy, and military organizations. An AI singleton could usher in a revolutionary new world free of war and conflict for all of human civilization or trigger a catastrophic new war between those with a functioning singleton entity against those attempting to develop one, along with myriad other risks, opportunities, and emergent consequences.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Machine Learning, Transhumanism, and War Studies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Towards a Prevention and Peacebuilding Data Hub: Scoping the Future of Data Services and Capacity Building

Author:
Branka Panic and Paige Arthur
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The complex crises in our world—from rising instability linked to pandemic effects and climate change, to ongoing challenges of civil war, urban violence, violent extremism—require complex analysis and insights. Emerging technologies, data, and data science methods have been recognized as potential tools to help tackle some of these “wicked” problems across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) potentially open a range of new opportunities for early warning and humanitarian preparedness, assessment and monitoring, service delivery, and operational and organizational efficiency. Advanced data analysis is the core of these efforts, and its success often depends on timely access, as well as the right quality and quantity of data.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Data, Machine Learning, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Thinking Outside the Container: A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Trade Flows

Author:
Vincent Stamer
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Global container ship movements may reliably predict global trade flows. Aggregating both movements at sea and port call events produces a wealth of explanatory variables. The machine learning algorithm partial least squares can map these explanatory time series to unilateral imports and exports, as well as bilateral trade flows. Applying out-of-sample and time series methods on monthly trade data of 75 countries, this paper shows that the new shipping indicator outperforms benchmark models for the vast majority of countries. This holds true for predictions for the current and subsequent month even if one limits the analysis to data during the first half of the month. This makes the indicator available at least as early as other leading indicators.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Trade, Shipping, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. NEW TECH, NEW DEAL: Mining Policy Options in the Face of New Technology

Author:
Isabelle Ramdoo, Aaron Cosbey, Jeff Geipel, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Throughout the history of mining, technological innovation has played a vital role across all cycles of mining projects. The new wave of technological adoption is a combination of evolutionary and revolutionary technologies, with an increasing focus on the latter. An acceleration in investments in disruptive technologies in recent years has seen the large-scale mining sector finally catching up with a dynamic that has already advanced in many other sectors. The reasons for this shift include more difficult geology, declining ore deposits, the need to reverse a secular decline in productivity, the need to improve safety for mine workers, a need to manage environmental impacts, and—more recently—a reaction to pressures from the COVID-19 crisis.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Mining, Automation, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus