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11. External Debt Stress and Domestic Debt Restructuring: Resolving a Paradox

Author:
C. P. Chandrasekhar
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was signalled by instances of default or failure to meet external debt obligations denominated in hard currencies. But the response to the crisis has included attempts to restructure domestic sovereign debt issued largely in domestic currencies. Such moves have been justified by identifying the crisis as one of excessive aggregate public debt rather than just unsustainable levels of external debt. There is a need, it is argued, to reduce the gross financing needs (foreign and domestic) of debt-stressed governments that have accumulated excessively high levels of aggregate—domestic and foreign currency—public debt. This assertion ignores the difference between the stress associated with servicing debt in domestic and foreign currency. Governments can mobilise domestic resources using their sovereign right to tax and central banks have control over domestic currency supply, whereas both have little control over foreign currency availability, which depends on net foreign revenues earned and on net inflows of foreign incomes, transfers and capital. While domestic debt restructuring releases domestic resources, it does not automatically yield the foreign currency needed to relieve external debt stress. In addition, since the holders of domestic sovereign debt include citizens deploying their savings to invest in pension funds, insurance products and mutual funds, and commercial banks parking resources in ‘safe investments’, restructuring that debt through explicit or implicit haircuts is bound to be economically destabilising. Past savings would be eroded with adverse impact on current demand, and the damage to the balance sheets of banks would restrain credit to the detriment of consumption and investment. This makes implementation of domestic debt restructuring costly and difficult, as experience illustrates. Given that context, the paper examines the possible reasons why when less developed countries face external debt stress, the IMF and global finance insist on domestic debt restructuring as part of conditions associated with provision of emergency balance of payments finance or the restructuring of foreign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Investment, Currency, and Debt Restructuring
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Triggering Investment in First-of-a-Kind and Early Near-Zero Emissions Industrial Facilities

Author:
Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Jonas Algers
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Among the most significant challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2055–2075 is addressing the so-called “hard-to-abate” heavy industrial sectors such as iron and steel, cement and concrete, ammonia, methanol, and high value feedstock chemicals like olefins. These sectors accounted for 7.5 Gt CO2 or 20.4 percent of global emissions in 2021, and global demand for their products will only rise until broad development goals are met everywhere. Moreover, nearly all heavy industrial plants being planned or in construction today are fossil based, with the exception being a handful of small-scale pilot facilities. Given that plants tend to operate for at least 20 years before their first deep renovation, and 40–80+ years overall, these new ones will likely still be in operation by the time global CO2 emissions must be net-zero (~2050–2060), after which heavy industry players that are still emitting will likely need to pay for CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. The cumulative CO2 emissions between now and then and the likely very high cost of CDR are driving society, governments, and firms to make near-zero emissions the default minimum standard for all new and retrofit facilities by the end of the 2020s. However, fulfilling that standard is no easy task. The main bottleneck is less technological in nature than financial and market based. At the current state of the art, near-zero emissions plants simply cost more than fossil-based plants, and meanwhile, no demand pull or market exists for lower-emission industrial products. Given the urgency of the task at hand amid the global climate crisis and the current lack of a business case to undertake it, strong policy signals can be used to incentivize early investment in near-zero-carbon heavy industry. This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, explores financial policy instruments that can make first-of-a-kind (FOAK) near-zero emission industrial facilities viable. The report finds that such FOAKs can then be used as low-risk, replicable models for rapidly transforming the “hard-to-abate” sectors and ultimately facilitating a transition to full net-zero emissions for industry as a whole.
Topic:
Climate Change, Investment, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Abatement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Net International Investment Position Surplus: A Key to Reconciling Financial Stability and Internationalization

Author:
Young Sik Jeong and Yena Song
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study examines the influence of net international investment position (IIP) on financial stability and financial internationalization. We find a strong correlation between creditor status (IIP surplus) and resilience to financial crises. Net creditor countries appear to act as buffers, with foreign assets returning to the home country during potential crises, thus preventing deterioration in external sector soundness. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that external financial assets positively affect the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of financial service. Specifically, the positive relationship between external financial assets and financial service RCA is more pronounced during periods of net IIP surplus compared to net IIP deficit periods. Our findings suggest that a net IIP surplus is beneficial for both financial stability and international competitiveness.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Financial Stability, Internationalization, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Breaking Free: Strategies for Governments on Terminating Investment Treaties and Removing ISDS Provisions

Author:
Ladan Mehranvar and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
As we enter the second half of 2024, the need for a fundamental transformation of the global investment and policy landscape is indisputable. Only ambitious, truly systemic changes can achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending extreme poverty, increasing social inclusion, reducing inequality, promoting the environmental sustainability of food systems, ecosystems, and biodiversity, and urgently shifting towards sustainable energy sources. The transition towards a more sustainable and equitable legal and economic global governance system involves moving away from industries and practices that harm the environment, such as fossil fuel extraction and use, and towards renewable energy sources. It also involves fostering sustainable practices that respect and uphold the rights, needs, and priorities of individuals, local communities, and Indigenous Peoples,1 as well as respecting governments’ sovereign right to regulate in the public interest. Progress, unfortunately, often clashes with a deeply entrenched status quo. One significant obstacle facing international investment law and policymakers is the investment treaty regime, which consists primarily of a network of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), multilateral investment treaties (MITs), and investment chapters in free trade agreements (FTAs). These international investment agreements (IIAs or investment treaties) dictate the treatment of foreign investment and foreign investors by host States. They contain a broad set of substantive provisions safeguarding investors and their investments, along with a powerful investor-State dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism that allows foreign investors to seek recourse through international arbitration in order to enforce treaty obligations. Many concerns about IIAs and the ISDS mechanism stem from the extensive substantive and procedural privileges granted to foreign investors. The ISDS mechanism, which is also found in national investment laws and increasingly in investor-State contracts, allows foreign investors to challenge legitimate regulatory measures taken by governments to achieve more equitable economic growth, address the climate crisis, respond to a global pandemic, or otherwise serve the public interest, if those measures negatively impact the investor’s bottom line.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, Multilateralism, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Carbon Inequality Kills: Why curbing the excessive emissions of an elite few can create a sustainable planet for all

Author:
Mira Alestig, Dabi Nafkote, Abha Jeurkar, Alex Maitland, Max Lawson, Daniel Horen Greenford, Corey Lesk, and Ashfaq Khalfan
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The only way to beat climate breakdown and deliver social justice is to radically reduce inequality. This briefing paper reveals the catastrophic climate impacts of the richest individuals in the world, and proposes taking urgent action to protect people and the planet. What little carbon dioxide we can still safely emit is being burned indiscriminately by the super-rich. We share new evidence of how the yachts, jets and polluting investments of the 50 richest billionaires are accelerating the climate crisis. Oxfam’s research shows that the emissions of the world’s super-rich 1% are causing economic losses of trillions of dollars; contributing to huge crop losses; and leading to millions of excess deaths. As global temperatures continue to rise, risking the lives and livelihoods of people living in poverty and precarity, we must act now to curb the emissions of the super-rich and make rich polluters pay.
Topic:
Climate Finance, Investment, Loss and Damage (L&D), Conference of the Parties (COP), and Billionaires
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Multilateral development banks are key to unlocking low-carbon investments in developing economies

Author:
Steven Fries
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Over the next three decades, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and especially middle-income countries, are projected to account for much of the growth in global economic activity and energy use. While a decisive move to low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency would advance both their development goals and a stable climate, the countries have yet to fully tap this opportunity. The multilateral development banks (MDBs) are in a unique position to help lower barriers to low-carbon investments in EMDEs and unlock these sustainable development opportunities. Their differentiating governance, financial and technical capabilities, and financing instruments would enable MDBs to support the necessary business environment and energy reforms and to cofinance low-carbon and energy efficiency investments alongside other investors to reduce and manage risks.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Multilateralism, Investment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:
Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnera­ble energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Bor­rowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increas­ingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a mone­tary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggre­gate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvest­ment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when infla­tion was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Comparative Analysis of Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds RiskAdjusted Performances

Author:
Engin Avcı and Hind Benmahi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Collective investment schemes have been utilizing distinct investment strategies to exploit opportunities offered by the financial markets. Among the alternative collective investment schemes, hedge funds and mutual funds have been attracting great interest. The objective of this study is to compare the risk-adjusted performance of hedge fund strategies with mutual funds strategies. The hedge fund indexes and mutual funds indexes, which are calculated by different database providers are utilized for this purpose. In this study, the indexes from three database providers (Eurekahedge, Credit Suisse, Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM)) are analyzed for the 2008-2021 period using distinct performance measurement metrics as Alpha based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Sharpe ratio and Sortino ratio; moreover, the MSCI World index has been taken as a benchmark. The findings demonstrated that the majority of hedge fund indices performed better than the benchmark MSCI World and provide better risk-adjusted performance than mutual funds.
Topic:
Economy, Mutual Funds, Investment, and Hedge Funds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. What Combination of Features Are Associated With Scalable and Sustainable Last-Mile Service Delivery Models? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Author:
Siddhant Gokale and Ojas
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This study explores the features of successful last-mile service delivery models for the poor. We define success in terms of two main outcomes — the scale of impact and the sustainability of the business model. Through a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of 35 organizations across a variety of sectors, such as agriculture, health, education, finance, energy, and water and sanitation, we arrive at a two-fold conclusion about the most prevalent combination of business model features associated with scale and sustainability. For achieving scale, a combination of four features was sufficient (but not necessary) — a pull product, an asset-light capital investment strategy, a narrow customer base, and a vertically integrated business model. For achieving sustainability, a wide customer base was sufficient (but not necessary). Together, these reveal a tradeoff between sustainability and scaling, especially around customer segments. The QCA is supplemented by an in-depth qualitative case study analysis of three selected organizations to uncover additional factors behind the success of alternate models that deviate from the QCA results. We find that clarity in vision, blending technology with people, evidence-driven decision-making and adaptive learning, and strong value propositions for multiple stakeholders were key characteristics of successful last-mile delivery models with features different from the QCA conclusions.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Investment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Implementation of the WTO Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement: Identification of Reform Needs and Development Policy Measures

Author:
Axel Berger, Ann Margret Bolmer, Florian Gitt, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Marius Metz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
More than 110 Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), many of them developing countries and least-developed countries (LDCs), are negotiating a plurilateral Agreement on Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD). In contract to existing bilateral investment treaties that establish sweeping rules on investment protection and liberalisation, the IFD Agreement aims at increasing the transparency, predictability and efficiency of investment frameworks as well as improving inter-governmental coordination and international cooperation on investment matters. In view of the fact that WTO Members aim at concluding the negotiations by mid-2023, discussions are under way on how the IFD Agreement can successfully be implemented in developing countries, and LDCs in particular. The IFD Agreement includes a comprehensive section on Special and Differential Treatment, which grants developing countries and LDCs longer timeframes as well as technical assistance and capacity development to support implementation. The Agreement also foresees so-called needs assessments at the country level to evaluate countries’ readiness and support needs to implement the IFD Agreement. While such needs assessments have been extensively used in the context of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), we lack insights into how such needs assessments can be operationalised in the context of investment facilitation and what kind of imple¬mentation challenges are prevalent, in particular in LDCs. To assess implementation gaps, barriers to successful implementation as well as national and international support actions, we conducted pilot needs assessments covering a selected group of IFD Agreement measures with a broad range of stakeholders in three LDCs, namely Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Togo and Zambia. Our pilots indicate that 13 selected provisions of the IFD Agreement have not been sufficiently implemented across the three LDCs. In particular, 64 per cent of analysed provisions have only partially been implement, while the rest have not been implemented at all. These findings underline that, in order to benefit from the IFD Agreement, LDCs need substantial implementation support from the international community. The most striking, commonly identified barriers hindering the full implementation are lack of cooperation and coordination among investment-competent agencies, poor information management for investors as well as limited digitalisation and automatisation. To overcome these barriers, nationally identified actions may focus mainly on the creation of a single information portal for foreign investors and a single-window system to improve authorisation procedures, as well as a clarification of mandates and functions of relevant ministries and institutions. Our research also underlines the importance of a whole-of-government and multi-stakeholder approach. The establishment of a National Investment Facilitation Committee may prove to be an effective instrument to ensure coordination and communication between involved stakeholders. International support should complement national actions with technical assistance and capacity development in investment-related topics, improving information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructures and digitalised processes, as well as fostering the international exchange of best practices. Our pilot needs assessments emphasise that the WTO Secretariat and the negotiating Members should strengthen outreach activities to promote knowledge about the WTO IFD Agreement among national-level stakeholders. In general, our pilots underline that needs assessments are an important instrument for identifying persistent implementation gaps and tailoring technical assistance and capacity development to the demands of Members, especially LDCs.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Investment, WTO, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus