Search

Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography Global Focus

11. Regulatory Convergence within Technical Barriers to Trade

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how regulatory convergence in different categories of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) imposed on imports of goods in information and communications technology (ICT) globally affected the values, volumes, and unit values of imported goods during the period 1996-2019. Keywords cited in TBTs that are notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO) give an indication of the regulatory objectives behind the imposition of TBTs. MAST also classifies TBTs based on their applicability, procedural and administrative uses, factors which will also be taken into consideration in the analysis. However, objectives of TBTs may provide better insights to policymakers. TBTs are non-discriminatory measures that are imposed unilaterally on all trading partners and on domestic producers. It is not feasible to analyse unilateral TBTs in a gravity setting, as they are excluded by the introduction of country-product-time fixed effects that control for multilateral resistances. However, regulatory convergence in TBT categories is a bilateral time-varying variable that is analysed in a gravity model in this paper. The empirical results suggest that regulatory convergence between trading partners in some TBT categories stimulates import values and volumes. However, the impact is very heterogeneous across TBT objectives and classes and across ICT product categories.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Communications, World Trade Organization, Foreign Direct Investment, Regulation, Information Technology, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Author:
Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Digital trade is growing rapidly, and regulators are trying to keep up. Concerns about privacy, consumer protection and national security demand regulatory attention, but too much regulation risks stifling digital trade. Current-generation trade agreements need to find the right balance between regulatory and liberal approaches to e-commerce. This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address concerns while enhancing trade.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Can the World Trade Organization be saved? Should it?

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Heads of state, trade ministers, and academics have repeatedly called for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO), the institution charged with the stewardship of the global trading system. The durability and worth of the WTO are being increasingly questioned despite the fact that by almost all objective measures, it has been a great success, with world trade growing much faster than global GDP over the last 75 years. However, past success does not guarantee future performance. This Policy Brief examines the institution’s most serious defects and the multitude of challenges it faces. It suggests the institution needs to evolve to reach broad-based international trade agreements, adding much needed new rules to the world trade rulebook and developing effective means to settle disputes that would render the rules of the system enforceable once again.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Saving the WTO from the national security exception

Author:
Warren Maruyama and Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
For any member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) not making alternative arrangements, enforceability of the rules of the global trading system, a distinguishing feature of the WTO, ceased to exist on December 11, 2019, because the United States blocked appointments to the Appellate Body of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. A major obstacle to the United States accepting any resolution of this impasse—thus permitting dispute settlement to once again be binding on all WTO members—is settling the issue of whether claims of national security to legitimize trade measures are reviewable. This is a red line for the United States, which argues this claim is nonreviewable. In the emerging area of great power competition, the United States is unlikely to accept a return to fully effective WTO dispute settlement absent a compromise that finds determinations of national security nonjusticiable. This paper offers a compromise: There would be no adjudication of whether a trade measure was justified under the WTO’s national security exception, but those WTO members adversely affected would have an immediate right to rebalance trade concessions themselves by imposing retaliatory trade measures against the WTO member invoking the exception.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Export impact on dividend policy for big Colombian exporting firms, 2006–2014

Author:
Federico Merchan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of exogenous export demand shocks on firms’ dividend policy using firm specific real exchange rate variation as instrumental variable. IV exclusion restriction is plausibly satisfied because real exchange rate shocks were unanticipated -partly explained because of international oil price fluctuation-, and first stage results confirm relevance condition fulfillment. The results indicate that big private Colombian exporting firms decree dividends as a way to mitigate the agency cost generated by exogeneous exports variation via higher free cash flow and cash flow volatility, especially in poor managerial quality firms. Evidence supports agency cost theory and denies signaling.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Good Practices in the Provision of Global Public Goods: How multilateral development banks build on global public goods in their operations

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff and Hannah Zick
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In our flagship report, ‘Multilateral Development Banks for Global Public Goods’, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Oxford Economics highlighted the positive role that the use of GPGs can play in preventing and addressing crises that cross national boundaries. As part of that work, we wanted to identify and share promising practices and good examples of how the provision of GPGs can be supported through international funding—and in particular through MDBs. We gathered a longlist of 99 examples of MDBs supporting GPG provision based on comprehensive desk research and interviews with over 30 key actors in the realm of project development. From this, we selected 20 case studies to carry out “deep dive” research to showcase good practices of provision of GPGs by MDBs based on whether the intervention: benefitted not only people inside the country of implementation but also beyond the country’s borders; supported the implementation of framework conditions that change the incentive structure for the provision of GPGs; could be replicated in other countries; and rated a good practice in reports or named a good practice by interview partners from MDBs. As a result, we gathered examples of GPG projects supported by MDBs and multilateral institutions at the country level that might not have been intended to only support GPG provision—such as those GPG projects mostly financed via Trust Funds and FIFs—but which also produced high GPG effects by maximising the synergies between national and global benefits. The case studies are designed to inform stakeholders from MDBs and receiving countries involved in the programming and project designing of development cooperation alike. The case studies showcase promising and highly replicable ways of supporting the provision of GPGs in the MDBs’ country engagement—considering both national and cross-country benefits of an intervention. Furthermore, valuable lessons can be learned on the institutional set-up, financing, quantification etc. concerning the support of GPGs by MDBs. They include examples of projects in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, and which covered issues such as climate and the environment, global public health, peace and security, financial resilience, and a fair international trading system. In a synthesis report, we set out 12 recommendations to organisations implementing GPGs to ensure they maximise the benefits on the ground, based on our findings from the analysis of the case studies. These range from using cost-benefit analysis and focusing on projects with high cross-country benefits to helping coordination of in-country provision and encouraging regional learning.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Institutions, Public Health, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
South Asia, East Asia, Germany, Latin America, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

17. The Conundrum of the Essential Security Exception: Can the WTO resolve the GATT Article XXI crisis and save the dispute settlement mechanism?

Author:
Stephen Kho, Yujin McNamara, Sarah Kirwin, and Brooke Davies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in an existential crisis. Ever since the United States began blocking the appointment of new Appellate Body members, the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism began slowly breaking down. As the Appellate Body lost its ability to function, WTO Members realized that they were empowered to appeal disputes they had lost at the panel level “into the void,” thereby preventing resolution. This, in turn, resulted in the filing of fewer disputes as Members instead started taking trade matters into their own hands. At the same time, Members began to more freely ignore their WTO obligations, knowing that if challenged, they could simply appeal adverse decisions “into the void” while still boasting their compliance with WTO rules because the dispute settlement mechanism would not have rendered a final decision based on a procedural technicality. Some WTO Members are now actively attempting to resuscitate the faltering dispute settlement system. Over the past year, efforts to negotiate a solution to the Appellate Body impasse have intensified between the United States and other Members, so much so that WTO Director- General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala recently suggested that dispute settlement reform could be one of the main “outcomes” of the upcoming 13th WTO Ministerial Conference.2 However, this is easier said than done. Despite recent progress in the reform discussions, the United States has seen to it that a key sticking point in the negotiations has become the justiciability of Article XXI(b) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1994 (GATT).3 Article XXI(b) is an exception that allows WTO Members to legally deviate from their trade obligations when necessary for the protection of their “essential security interests”.4 As with the Appellate Body impasse, the United States stands largely alone in taking a hard- line position that Article XXI(b) must be wholly self-judging and thus non-justiciable under the WTO. In the view of the United States, Members may unilaterally determine for themselves whether their actions are taken for purposes of their essential security interests, or, in other words, whether they self-qualify to use the Article XXI(b) exception to justify what would otherwise be a WTO violation.5
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, National Security, WTO, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

18. The CEPII Trade and Production Database

Author:
Thierry Mayer, Gianluca Santoni, and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper documents the CEPII Trade and Production Database (TradeProd), which provides data on international and domestic trade flows and trade protection. The database covers 162 countries and 9 industrial sectors over the period 1966-2018. TradeProd is intended for econometric estimation of the gravity equation and also includes a yearly balanced dataset necessary for counterfactual exercises using new quantitative trade models.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Production, and Gravity Equation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): A Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Simulation

Author:
Ken Itakura
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study estimates the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by using a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates the global supply chains (GSCs) structure, also referred as the global value chains (GVCs). The tariff reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement are incorporated in addition to other large FTAs, such as the CPTPP. Second, the structure of GSCs is included in the CGE model to take into account the importance of trade in intermediate goods and services. This study implements the RCEP simulation scenarios for tariff reductions, services trade liberalization, logistic improvements, and investment commitments. Results show that the real GDP of RCEP members increases by $675 billion in total, of which ASEAN grows by $160 billion
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. The Black Hole of National Security: Striking the Right Balance for the National Security Exception in International Trade

Author:
James Bacchus
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) reserves for members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) the legal authority to restrict trade in goods to protect members’ “essential” security interests. Similar exceptions to WTO trade obligations exist in other WTO agreements. For more than seven decades, WTO members exercised self‐​restraint in invoking these exceptions, doing so only for narrow purposes and in truly exceptional circumstances to avoid pushing the boundaries of the law too far and thereby upending the delicate balance between members’ legitimate pursuit of their security interests and their obligations to reduce barriers to trade. Yet, trade restrictions justified on national security grounds have proliferated in recent years and are increasingly subject to litigation in WTO dispute settlement. As a result, the national security provisions contained within the WTO agreements, as well as fundamental questions about the nexus between trade and national security, are set to be tested and clarified by WTO jurists—a less than ideal outcome that could lead to the further undermining of WTO dispute settlement and the rules‐​based international trading system more broadly. This paper explains the origins of the national security exceptions in the GATT and the WTO agreements and the history of their invocation, summarizes recent litigation that has clarified these exceptions, discusses current developments and upcoming litigation that could prove pivotal to our understanding of the trade‐​security nexus and the future of the world trading system, and offers some concluding thoughts on the options available to WTO members for striking a balance between trade liberalization and the defense of national security.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, National Security, World Trade Organization, and Tariffs
Political Geography:
Global Focus