Search

Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography Global Focus

131. The Outlook for Energy Under a Trump Administration Major Volatility Ahead

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Oil, gas, and renewable energy markets will face high levels of uncertainty and potentially extreme volatility under a Trump administration in 2017. Some of these uncertainties flow from questions about the new administration’s yet-undefined policies on energy production, trade, and climate policy. Others flow from the basket of national security risks that a new US President was destined to inherit. Yet it is Mr. Trump’s signaling of major shifts in US foreign policy priorities that may have the greatest near-term impact on energy supply and demand. The impact of these uncertainties, following two years of reduced oil and gas investment and low energy prices, may inhibit investment and sow the seeds of a potential oil and gas price shock by 2020, if not sooner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:
America and Global Focus

132. Key Risks Companies Face in Petroleum Investment and Operations

Author:
Bud Coote and Karl V. Hopkins
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report is a collaboration between Dentons and the Atlantic Council that provides analysis on the array of risks and uncertainties faced by international energy firms investing in and operating energy projects worldwide. It focuses on lessons learned from a variety of experiences and offers risk mitigation options.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. Charting a Course for Trade and Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
OVER THE PAST YEAR, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRADE LANDSCAPE HAS BEEN CHALLENGED AS NEVER BEFORE. A growing number of people around the world are questioning the value of trade agreements, holding them accountable for slow wage growth, rising inequalities, and job losses. Exemplified by Brexit and the U.S. presidential election, a wave of anti-globalization has washed over the world. Further, global trade is slowing, and existing trade agreements have not kept pace with the changing nature of trade itself, owing to the increasingly important role of digital and services trades. But trade has been one of the strongest drivers behind global growth and stability, particularly in Asia. In the past quarter century, the number of trade agreements in the region has increased dramati- cally. At the same time, Asian countries experienced average annual growth rates nearly 3 percent higher after liberalizing their markets.1 The region’s openness has been a critical ingredient in spurring growth, creating jobs, and lifting millions out of poverty. Trade has also helped nations develop stronger ties, giving them a greater stake in one another’s economic success and reducing the likelihood of conflict. What the French philosopher Montesquieu wrote during the eighteenth century remains as relevant in the twenty-first: “Peace is a natural effect of trade.” 2
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

134. Why trade facilitation matters now more than ever

Author:
Antoni Estevadeordal
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
On February 22, 2017, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) entered into force. The TFA was concluded at the WTO Bali Ministerial Conference in 2013. Since then, countries have been working on implementing the agreement in their domestic markets to reach the two-thirds requirement for implementation.[1] As of March 2017, 113 members (or 69 percent of WTO members) have ratified the agreement—including 19 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries—and another 93 countries have notified the WTO of their timeline for each TFA provision, giving a comprehensive picture of the state of the agreement.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. Proposal to accelerate social mobility: Incentivizing greater private investment in the skill development of 21st century workers

Author:
Colin I. Bradford and Roger Burkhardt
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In this policy brief, we discuss the importance of accelerated private investment in skill development of labor as a means to increase the competitiveness of firms, to create value added by workers, and to boost wages and social mobility. This brief was used at the VISION 20 Workshop held at the Brookings Institution on February 27, 2017, to help generate new “big picture” policy approaches for the German G-20 Summit in Hamburg in July. The workshop was sponsored by the University of British Columbia Institute for Asia Research, the Munk School at the University of Toronto, the Boell Foundation, and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung with the participation of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the German Development Institute.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Social Movement, and International Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. Gender Matters in Economic Empowerment Interventions: A Research Review

Author:
Mayra Buvinic and Megan O'Donnell
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
A review of the recent evaluation evidence on financial services and training interventions questions their gender neutrality and suggests that some design features in these interventions can yield more positive economic outcomes for women than for men. These include features in savings and ‘Graduation’ programs that increase women’s economic self-reliance and self-control, and the practice of repeated micro borrowing that increases financial risk-taking and choice. ‘Smart’ design also includes high quality business management and jobs skills training, and stipends and other incentives in these training programs that address women’s additional time burdens and childcare demands. Peer support may also help to increase financial risk taking and confidence in business decisions, and may augment an otherwise negligible impact of financial literacy training. These features help women overcome gender-related constraints. However, when social norms are too restrictive, and women are prevented from doing any paid work, no design will be smart enough. Subjective economic empowerment appears to be an important intermediate outcome for women that should be promoted and more reliably and accurately measured. More research is also needed on de-biasing service provision, which can be gender biased; lastly, whenever possible, results should be sex-disaggregated and reported for individuals as well as households.
Topic:
Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

137. Expanding Global Liquidity Insurance: Myths and Realities of the IMF’s Precautionary Credit Lines

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Liliana Rojas-Suarez, and Anna Diofasi
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Despite increasing volatility in the global economy, the uptake of the IMF’s two precautionary credit lines, the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL), has remained limited—currently to just four countries. The two new lending instruments were created in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008 to enable IMF member states to respond quickly and effectively to temporary balance of payment needs resulting from external shocks. Both credit lines offer immediate access to considerable sums—over 10 times a country’s IMF quota in some cases with no (FCL) or very limited (PLL) conditionality. This paper addresses four misconceptions (or ‘myths’) that have likely played a role in the limited utilization of the two precautionary credit lines: 1) too stringent qualification criteria that limit country eligibility; 2) insufficient IMF resources; 3) high costs of precautionary borrowing; and 4) the economic stigma associated with IMF assistance. We show, in fact, that the pool of eligible member states is likely to be seven to eight times larger than the number of current users; that with the 2016 quota reform IMF resources are more than adequate to support a larger precautionary portfolio; that the two IMF credit lines are among the least costly and most advantageous instruments for liquidity support countries have; and that there is no evidence of negative market developments for countries now participating in the precautionary lines.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

138. Fiscal Policy, Income Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Current policy discussion focuses primarily on the power of fiscal policy to reduce inequality. Yet, comparable fiscal incidence analysis for 28 low and middle income countries reveals that, although fiscal systems are always equalizing, that is not always true for poverty. In Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ghana, Nicaragua, and Guatemala the extreme poverty headcount ratio is higher after taxes and transfers (excluding in-kind transfers) than before. In addition, to varying degrees, in all countries a portion of the poor are net payers into the fiscal system and are thus impoverished by the fiscal system. Consumption taxes are the main culprits of fiscally-induced impoverishment. Net direct taxes are always equalizing and indirect taxes net of subsidies are equalizing in nineteen countries of the 28. While spending on pre-school and primary school is pro-poor (i.e., the per capita transfer declines with income) in almost all countries, pro-poor secondary school spending is less prevalent, and tertiary education spending tends to be progressive only in relative terms (i.e., equalizing but not pro-poor). Health spending is always equalizing but not always pro-poor. More unequal countries devote more resources to redistributive spending and appear to redistribute more. The latter, however, is not a robust result across specifications.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

139. Analytic Foundations: Measuring the Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Transfers

Author:
Ali Enami, Nora Lustig, and Rodrigo Aranda
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper provides a theoretical foundation for analyzing the redistributive effect of taxes and transfers for the case in which the ranking of individuals by pre-fiscal income remains unchanged. We show that in a world with more than a single fiscal instrument, the simple rule that progressive taxes or transfers are always equalizing not necessarily holds, and offer alternative rules that survive a theoretical scrutiny. In particular, we show that the sign of the marginal contribution unambiguously predicts whether a tax or a transfer is equalizing or not.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. Multilateralism under stress

Author:
Homi Kharas
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The multilateral development system, led by the United States, has guided development cooperation by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, evolving gradually through new institutions and new norms since World War II. Organized by a small group of like-minded countries, multilateralism has been a way of managing burden-sharing among donors and of delivering public goods. These functions are now under stress. According to a poll conducted in December 2016 by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, most Americans (59.3 percent) support the statement that “when giving foreign aid, it is best for the U.S. to participate in international efforts, such as through the United Nations. This way it is more likely that other countries will do their fair share and that these ef- forts will be better coordinated.” However, a majority of Republican voters disagree, believing that it is better for the U.S. to provide aid on its own, to ensure control over how money is spent and to gain recognition for its generosity.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus