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151. THE DIPLOMATIC BURDEN OF COVID-19

Author:
Benjamin E. Bagozzi and Ore Koren
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
At a time when global cooperation is needed more than ever, new research suggests that pandemics may weaken diplomatic connections between countries and lower the probability that nations will establish new diplomatic ties. Diplomacy is one of the most enduring forms of international political interaction. Administered through embassies, consulates, and their political and bureaucratic support staffs, on-the-ground diplomatic relations are a key tool for international political negotiation, cooperation, trade promotion, dispute settlement, foreign intelligence management, and cultural exchange.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Communications, Peacekeeping, Negotiation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

152. The COVID-19 pandemic: Scenarios to Understand the International Impact

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread around the world in a matter of a few short months in 2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate duration and severity of the pandemic itself, are marked by deep uncertainty. While it is too early to forecast the consequences of COVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematically explore plausible trajectories for the medium-term future. This research paper uses scenarios to address the following question: what could be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economic and military balance of power over the course of the next five years? The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of change to build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clusters are governance and geopolitics. The governance cluster straddles the divide of domestic and international politics, combining social cohesion in societies, populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalism and state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuses on aspects of international leadership and alliances. In the economic arena, clusters formed around the themes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former, regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamics and Chinese technological leadership are considered. In the latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context of employment, public debt, finance and energy issues. In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflict and to military posture were combined to form clusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projections for threat perceptions, major-power war, conflict among middle powers and intra-state violence. Military posture is captured by examining issues around force projection, the digitisation of armed forces, defence-industrial dynamics, strategic stability and the role of nuclear weapons. Scenarios in this paper are not designed to predict the future, but they are meant to help bound the range of possible futures for which decision-makers may need to prepare. In the scenario Silver Linings, geopolitics in 2025 are characterised by cooperation and the recession of domestic governance challenges. The economic recovery was swift and comprehensive, and although the pandemic modified aspects of globalisation its basic tenets remained intact. Armed conflict of the inter-state and intra-state kind has declined, and military postures are increasingly driven by advanced technologies and a smaller number of overseas operations. In the Downfall scenario, a weakened societal fabric has generated governance challenges at home and geopolitics are characterised by conflict. Economic recovery following the collapse triggered by the pandemic remains slow and incomplete, and economic reordering leads to the fragmentation of pre-existing international ties at the state and commercial levels. Great-power war has become a realistic probability and growing state fragility brought about by the pandemic leads to an increase in armed conflict. The scenario Lost in Transition is full of countervailing forces introducing challenges and a sense of instability. In the realm of politics, the geopolitical situation is marred by conflict, but domestic governance structures are not particularly challenged. Economically, recovery is slow and there are attempts to decouple − leading to bifurcated economic activity − with each strand led by China and the United States respectively. Militarily, new alliances emerge but a key concern is the near-perfect storm that the pandemic has created for security and stability in Africa. The scenario Home Alone outlines a future world in which the economic recovery is highly uneven. Attempts to generate momentum for renewed international cooperation fail as great-power rivalries intensify – however, the European Union emerges as a more confident geopolitical actor. Globalisation is disrupted by a drive to create regional and local supply chains and China forces a bifurcation of production for some sectors. Armed conflict linked to state fragility increases markedly, while the ability and willingness of international actors to provide humanitarian assistance and crisis-management resources fall dramatically. The pandemic itself is an event of world-shattering proportions. Yet many of its political and military implications are likely to be evolutionary in nature. In the period considered here, the potential for radical change (and a break with past practice and assumptions) is perhaps greatest in the economic realm. Furthermore, the scenarios can be helpful in recognising courses of actions that appear to be robust in the sense that they would appear to yield beneficial results across a range of alternative futures. Of course, even ‘future history’ marches on and it will remain crucial to consider the impact of unfolding events to maintain a sense of the direction of travel. The scenario implications will be useful to policymakers seeking to identify particular developments that may be desirable or undesirable. This will in turn facilitate discussion about the levers available and the extent to which such developments can be influenced. The most important point to take away from a European perspective is that across the scenarios a coherent and cohesive Europe is a prerequisite to exploit opportunities and avoid becoming, if not the battleground, than at least the playground for the political and economic policies of others.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

153. The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will have enduring effects on geopolitics and geo-economics in the Middle East, the Gulf and beyond. In this IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication we explore the regional and global implications of the pandemic, including essays on Gulf defence economics, global and great-power politics, the Gulf states’ development models, strategy and geo-economics.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

154. The United States and the World Health Organization

Author:
Theodore M. Brown
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:
A little more than two months ago, U.S. President Donald Trump began to lash out at the World Health Organization, blaming it for what he claimed were missteps, failures, and prevarications in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Then, on April 14, after several days of threats, he announced that U.S. funding for the WHO would be frozen for sixty to ninety days while his administration conducted a review to “assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus.” Widely seen as a transparent attempt to deflect attention from his own inconsistent, incompetent, and irresponsible response to the crisis, Trump’s threatened withdrawal of funds from the WHO at a critical moment drew widespread condemnation from medical and public health leaders. Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of Lancet, called Trump’s decision a “crime against humanity.” Dr. Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association, “denounced” the Trump administration’s decision to halt U.S. contributions to the WHO, which, he said, would “cripple the world’s response to COVID-19 and would harm the health and lives of thousands of Americans.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, World Health Organization, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

155. What the World Health Organization must do to earn back US support

Author:
Danielle Pletka and Brett D. Schaefer
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In a pandemic, a global health organization that is overly deferential to one nation and incapable of being an honest broker costs the very lives it exists to save. While China deserves primary blame for the devastation of COVID-19, the WHO also played a key role by failing to alert the world to Beijing’s lack of transparency. The WHO’s failures cannot be allowed to recur. Without change, it will fail again. It must implement reforms if it wants to restore confidence and earn US support.
Topic:
International Cooperation, World Health Organization, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

156. COVID-19: A Stress Test for International Development Cooperation

Author:
Stefano Manservisi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the Coronavirus pandemic expands, and peak contagion remains uncertain, policy responses are gradually emerging, being implemented in a number of domains. The crisis has several important implications, but two are currently dominating the headlines: individual health and the sustainability of national healthcare systems, and the economic fallout from the pandemic.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Finance, International Development, Development Aid, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Global Focus

157. Global Governance in 2030: Prospective Scenarios on the Future of Politics

Author:
Julia Pomares and María Belén Abdala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
We are living in an era of unprecedented changes. Mature democracies, emerging polities and the least electorally competitive countries are now facing new challenges in a globalized world. They are all dealing with technological breakthroughs, changes in global economic power, ageing populations and urbanization of their territories. Today’s picture shows that social inclusion seems to be an unfulfilled promise, and social cohesion is weakening. Some citizens are disenchanted, and political systems are having trouble adapting and responding to new demands. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer (2017), one in every two countries does not have faith in the system, and we still do not know how this picture is going to evolve. In democracies, pro-democracy attitudes coexist with openness to nondemocratic forms of governance, such as rule by experts (49 per cent), strong leaders (26 per cent) or the military (24 per cent). This picture might be part of a transition period or indicating that polities are not being able to cope with some of the new challenges. It is why we need to think about the future of politics and how these trends will shape global governance in the next 10 to 20 years. Are political systems ready to govern a digital economy? How should political leaders evolve to address radical changes in an automated world? What will the consequences be for global governance and for the role of G20? This paper analyzes current global trends in domestic politics and the prospective scenarios on the future of politics. To do so, the paper presents a brief description on three forces we know will forge the future: technological breakthroughs, demographic changes and shifts in global economic power. Later, it turns to the uncertainty of the future. We live in nation states, so we first attempt to devise how these forces will shape domestic politics. We then look at global governance and the way these trends will impact upon it. The final stop of this journey is an analysis of the implications of these scenarios for the role of the G20.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

158. Civil Society Recommendations to the Compact on Women, Peace, and Security and Humanitarian Action

Author:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
This document was prepared by the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) based on the inputs of the members of the civil society-led Action Coalition on WPS and YPS. It presents a set of recommendations on the points raised in the concept note of the Compact on Women and Peace and Security and Humanitarian Action in the Generation Equality Forum. The recommendations were generated from the Zoom meeting of the civil society-led Action Coalition on WPS and YPS on June 10, 2020, and a series of phone, Zoom, WhatsApp, and email consultations between June 19 –30, 2020. Local, national, regional and global CSOs from Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Burundi, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, France, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Haiti, Iraq, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal, Netherlands, Nigeria, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sweden, Uganda, Ukraine, UK, and the USA participated in these consultations. Representatives of the Office of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy Youth, UN Department of Peace Operations, UNDP, UNFPA and UN Women also participated at the Zoom meeting on June 10, 2020. Many of the recommendations echo those presented by civil society and local women peacebuilders in the Vienna Declaration 2020, the outcome document of the Global Women’s Forum on Women Peacebuilders & Humanitarian Actors, organized by the Austrian Development Cooperation, the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders and the Women’s Peace and Humanitarian Fundin Vienna on February 19-20, 2020; the 2018-2019 Global Study of Civil Society And Local Women’s Perception of Sustaining Peace conducted by GNWP with support from UN Women; and the report from the Local consultations with women from civil society on WPS and Sustaining Peace in Colombia, Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Uganda prepared by GNWP with support from Ireland and UN Women as a contribution to the Peacebuilding Architecture Review in 2020.”
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

159. Society 5.0 and the Future Economies

Author:
Hesham Dinana
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
We’re better-connected today than ever before—but has modern innovation created a new society altogether?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

160. Addressing Statelessness through the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (‘ICERD’)

Author:
Michiel Hoornick
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Discrimination is one of the root causes for deprivation and denial of nationality. This work presents an analysis of the right to nationality under art 5(d)(iii) of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the interpretation of the obligations under art 2, related to this right by its monitoring body, the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. This reflection focuses on obligations regarding deprivation of nationality, acquisition of nationality and other obligations to facilitate and fulfil the right to nationality of the individuals living within its jurisdiction. An assessment is made on the effectiveness of the Convention and its Committee in protecting the right to nationality.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Race, Discrimination, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:
Global Focus