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31. Decrypting Crypto: Cryptocurrencies and the Quantum Computer Threat

Author:
Arthur Herman and Daley Pagano
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly embedded in the global financial and economic mainstream. One reason is that its security encryption, distributed ledger technology, or blockchain, is largely impervious to conventional cyber-attack or theft. However, thanks to Shor’s algorithm, cryptocurrencies will be exceptionally vulnerable to a future quantum computing attack. What makes crypto vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm is elliptic-curve cryptography, which applies to all distributed ledger technology. Based on our research, the overall cost of a major hack and devaluation of Bitcoin alone would equal $3 trillion plus. Fortunately, solutions already exist: post-quantum cryptography and quantum computing. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay. However, supporting crypto security with post-quantum cryptography or quantum cryptography will enable cryptocurrencies to remain a mainstay of the global financial system for many decades to come.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Cryptocurrencies, Information Technology, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction as a Radical Departure: New Paradigm for Analyzing Capitalism

Author:
Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The paper’s core contribution is a reinterpretation of Schumpeter’s development theory, through the "creative destruction paradigm" provided in Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (CSD). By linking the core propositions of the latter with the brilliant, but underdeveloped, innovations from The Theory of Economic Development (TED) and some largely ignored historical and institutional insights provided in Business Cycles (BC), the seeds of a new analytical framework emerge. One which is completely out of balance, centered on finance, entrepreneurial action, uncertainty, institutions, and competition by means of innovation.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Capitalism, Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. The Next Game Changers: A Priority Innovation Agenda for Global Health

Author:
Cordelia Kenney and Rachel Silverman
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Over the last century, scientific and technological innovation has led to unprecedented improvements in health outcomes—yet research and development (R&D) investments and progress to address health threats has been uneven. Commercial R&D has focused where investors can expect substantial financial returns: rich countries, the diseases that affect them, and high-tech solutions designed for the richest and most sophisticated systems. Despite supplemental funding from philanthropic and government grants, R&D to address many leading causes of death and disability—especially those that primarily affect low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) or insure against future risk—has been consistently underfunded relative to potential health gain. This implies that many untapped opportunities remain to dramatically improve global health and welfare via biomedical innovation. In this paper, we report the results of a horizon-scanning exercise to source opportunities for global health R&D investment—that is, high-value potential biomedical innovations which are currently underfunded but which could be transformative for health, quality of life, and health security in LMICs and around the world. Drawing from a literature review and expert interviews with researchers, economists, funders, advocates, and implementers, we lay out an expansive and high-promise (though non-comprehensive) biomedical innovation agenda for global health spanning the unfinished MDG agenda; non-communicable diseases; and global health security. We conclude with a discussion of implications for research, funding, and practice.
Topic:
Development, Health, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. Combatting Climate Change Through Nuclear Energy: Risks, Advantages, and Geopolitical Implications

Author:
Edward Jenner
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Use of nuclear energy is likely to grow in the coming decades, in part to combat climate change. Increased deployment of nuclear energy will likely include use of advanced small reactors, which can facilitate decarbonization, increase nuclear safety, supplement gaps in renewable energy production, provide energy to low-demand communities, help desalinate water, and increase energy security. But there are also risks. Nuclear power, such as that produced by advanced small reactors, put nuclear material in more locations and use higher enrichment fuel for some reactor designs, both of which are security concerns. Moreover, while China and Russia already have operating advanced small reactors and are exploring using reactors aboard floating nuclear power plants, the U.S. will likely not have an operational advanced small reactor until the late 2020s. This brief explores the benefits and risks of advanced small nuclear reactors and describes strategies to mitigate these risks. The bottom line: advanced small nuclear reactors are a beneficial tool for reducing carbon emissions. But their safe deployment and use require increasing nuclear security expertise and assessing both nuclear fuel and advanced small reactor needs. Moreover, nuclear newcomers need support to adopt nuclear norms and develop domestic nuclear regulatory bodies to lower the potential risks of nuclear energy while maximizing the potential benefits.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Innovation, Strategic Competition, Nuclear Energy, Geoeconomics, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. Promotion of high capacity broadband to rebuild and recover from the pandemic

Author:
J. Scott Marcus, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Promoting high-quality fixed and mobile broadband for all, at an affordable price, is an important enabler of the digital transformation of society and will help close the digital divide. This became clearer than ever during the pandemic, when broadband access was a crucial enabler of remote work, distance learning, telemedicine and e-commerce. It has always been challenging to provide broadband access to all at an affordable price. The pandemic, global geopolitical tension and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated supply-chain disruptions in ways that make this even more difficult and potentially expensive. Promotion of broadband deployment, adoption and use are all important for both fixed and mobile broadband; however, different policy levers are needed in each case, on both the supply and demand sides. The market will not always deliver complete solutions. Consequently, there is a role for regulation, targeted industrial policy and public finance. Promotion of competition, combined with prompt and efficient provision of access to resources such as electromagnetic spectrum and access to land and rights of way, can be particularly important. G20 countries and others now seek a future-proof, sustainable and equitable recovery, meaning new sources of public revenues need to be considered. Broadband can be boosted by judicious use of recovery funds and expected new tax revenues arising from global tax reforms agreed within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Digital Economy, Innovation, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

36. Practical Legislation to Support Cryptocurrency Innovation

Author:
Jack Solowey and Jennifer J. Schulp
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In bull and bear cycles alike, cryptocurrencies have commanded the attention of markets and policymakers. The 117th Congress has introduced dozens of bills addressing the crypto ecosystem.1 In addition, multiple regulators have been outspoken about their readiness to be the “cop on the beat” when it comes to overseeing crypto markets.2 Nonetheless, key questions remain about how best to regulate the crypto ecosystem and the extent to which current laws and regulations apply. This briefing paper proposes a cryptocurrency regulatory framework with the goals of dispelling uncertainty, unencumbering entrepreneurship, and providing practical consumer protections.3 The framework recognizes the unique risks and benefits of cryptocurrencies, proposing a clear‐​cut test for whether crypto projects trigger securities laws and a common‐​sense registration and disclosure option for those that do.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Legislation, Innovation, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:
Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Our Digital Future: The Security Implications of Metaverses

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Frederico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Although the concept of a metaverse or metaverses is not new, current developments in the creation of possible metaverses offer credible prospects of generating increasingly immersive digital experiences that will also provide people with more information, connections and knowledge than ever before. However, metaverses are also likely to exacerbate existing risks surrounding the increased digitalisation of our lives and the role of social media companies in our societies, such as the spread of disinformation or increased societal polarisation. Similarly, technology companies’capacity to collect private data and profile users will also increase. Growing levels of immersivity will reinforce risks such as increased digital crime or extremist radicalisation, but will also create new ones that pertain to cognitive manipulations. This could lead to the transformation of social organisations and a questioning of the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Metaverses also offer new dimensions for power politics and geopolitical confrontations, and a platform for conducting cognitive warfare. Responsible innovations and security-by-design must be the guiding principles of efforts to develop metaverses.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Social Media, Innovation, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. Donor Funding Models for Innovation: A Review

Author:
Conor M. Savoy
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Donors have rhetorically supported the importance of innovation in global development, but the level of resources committed has seldom matched the level of this rhetoric. There are clear barriers to expanding funding for the innovation ecosystem: (1) innovation remains under-resourced, and models that are providing clear results are not properly supported; (2) pathways to scale remain limited because of the total funding available; and (3) the risk appetite of donors remains too conservative to properly support and scale innovation. Recent impact evaluations suggest that innovations supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Development Innovation Ventures (DIV) and the Global Innovation Fund (GIF) have yielded impressive returns. But more importantly, innovation also leverages scarce funding resources and engages with locally based partners.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Innovation, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. Regulating the International Digital Economy, with Trade and Innovation in Mind

Author:
Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The international digital economy is growing rapidly, and the fragmented governance framework is struggling to keep pace. Global entities such as the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements offer a patchwork approach to governance. This paper illustrates the importance of governance in relation to private-sector innovation and recommends next steps to enhance governance, close gaps and promote further innovation. Better definition and international alignment of the framework for governance of digital trade and data could lead to greater privacy, trust and security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus