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1. Leveraging Charging Strategies to Reduce Grid Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Author:
Christine Gschwendtner
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Electric vehicles (EVs) can challenge or support electricity systems depending on how they are charged. Uncontrolled charging may strain electricity systems, e.g., by increasing peak demand in the evening,1 which may require cost- and emission-intensive infrastructure investments, such as grid reinforcements and peak generation capacity. In contrast, controlled charging can benefit electricity systems by providing flexibility,2 e.g., by shifting charging demand away from evening hours. Controlled charging that combines technical solutions with heterogenous EV user behaviors, supported by charging infrastructure at diverse locations, e.g., at work during midday, and incentives, can reduce peak demand to avoid grid constraints and support the integration of renewable energy.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Sodium: An Alternative to the "White Gold" of the Energy Transition?

Author:
Nicola De Blasio
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As the world transitions towards low-carbon energy systems, scaling up clean energy technologies will drive demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. Stakeholders in the private and public sectors must work together to implement effective and efficient strategies, policies, and regulations to ensure that supplies are secure, reliable, sustainable, and equitable. Over the past years, the price volatility of minerals and metals has increased due to rising demand, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about tightening supplies. In addition, today’s markets are highly concentrated in a small number of countries. Although supply diversification investments are increasing, most near-term growth is expected from existing major producers, resulting in an even higher geopolitical risk.1 The transportation sector offers a stark example of these dynamics. Every year, the world increasingly relies on batteries. In 2022, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for about 10 percent of global vehicle sales and are expected to reach 35 percent by the decade’s end.2 Announced policies around the world are accelerating these trends. For example, recent climate legislation in the United States is deploying billions into battery manufacturing and incentives for EV purchases.3 Lithium-ion batteries, a technology also used in computers and cell phones, power most EVs today. Typical of innovation cycles, years of development and deployment have resulted in significant cost reductions and improved performances. Today’s EVs are becoming increasingly competitive with internal combustion vehicles and can be driven for hundreds of kilometers between charges. Lithium is used in EVs because it is lightweight, has high energy densities, is relatively low maintenance, and can be repeatedly charged. From a market and geopolitical perspective, analysts estimate that lithium demand will increase tenfold before the end of this decade.4,5 In 2021, China dominated lithium global markets with 79 percent of all lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; this figure is expected to decrease slightly to around 65 percent by 2025 (see Figure 1).
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Lithium, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Sodium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Tesla as a Global Competitor: Strategic Control in the EV Transition

Author:
Matt Hopkins and William Lazonick
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In this paper, we assess the implications of Elon Musk’s strategic control over Tesla, the pioneering company that has become central to the electric vehicle transition. We document how, as Tesla’s CEO for 16 years, Musk has exercised strategic control to direct the transformation of the company from an uncertain startup to a global leader. Now that Tesla is profitable corporate predators (aka hedge-fund activists) may challenge Musk’s strategic control—a possibility of which the CEO is well aware. To retain his control over Tesla as a publicly listed company, Musk depends on holding a sufficient proportion of Tesla’s shares outstanding to possess the voting power to fend off predatory value extractors. In addition to accumulating Tesla shares by investing $291.2 million at early stages of the company’s evolution, Musk has relied upon massive stock-option grants from the Tesla board, under the guise of “compensation”, in 2009, 2012, and 2018, to boost his shareholding and, with it, his voting power. Hence the Delaware Court of Chancery’s decision in January 2024 to rescind Musk’s 2018 stock-option package—by far the largest ever granted to a corporate executive—poses a threat to Musk’s strategic control at Tesla. As the “Technoking” of Tesla strategizes to maintain his control over the company’s decision-making, anyone concerned with the role that Tesla will play in the evolving EV transition should be asking how CEO Musk might use, or abuse, his powerful position.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Competition, Electric Vehicles, Tesla, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

4. How to Meet the Industrial Challenge of Electric Mobility in France and in Europe

Author:
Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Diana-Paula Gherasim, Clémentine Vannier, and Adam Contu
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
How to Meet the Industrial Challenge of Electric Mobility in France and in Europe Notes de l'Ifri, November 2023 The deployment at scale of electric mobility in France and in Europe withholds significant industrial, societal, geopolitical, and financial challenges, against the backdrop of strategic dependencies along the value chain of the electric vehicle (EV). A certain lack of vision of the value chain as a whole, of the needs and objectives at each stage, and of how to ensure consistency and follow-up over time adds up to the concerns of industry players, who not only need to catch up from a technology point of view, but also to innovate, to secure the value chains, the workforce, the supply in low-carbon affordable energy and to scale up production and recycling capacities. Gigafactories are a major industrial step forward but should not obscure the complex and much broader nature of the battery value chain, and more generally of EVs’ value chain. This note summarizes the key findings of Ifri’s extensive study with the same name and its ten key recommendations for overcoming the industrial challenges of electric mobility deployment in France and Europe: Developing a holistic approach to the supply of critical raw materials, focusing on five key areas: domestic extraction, refining, mining diplomacy and environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and recycling. Ensuring the stable and competitive supply of low-carbon electricity. Building integrated partnerships with European players at all stages of the EV value chain, with a view in particular to rapidly securing a certain number of cathode and anode active material (CAM and AAM) and precursor cathode active material (PCAM) production capacities, and supporting innovation in battery chemistry, which is the only way for Europeans to distinguish themselves from China. Planning in order to acquire an integrated mastery of the value chain, to develop the skills and train the workforce. Moderating the demand in critical raw materials as a key to resilience, as alternative means of transport, fewer car sales and smaller batteries, contribute to reduce the future increase in raw material needs. Re-imagining mobility to make it more sustainable, accessible, and fair. Setting up and calibrating a support system for the deployment of the different stages of the electric mobility value chain in France, whose cost to the national budget could be in the region of €8-9 billion a year, over the next few years. Protecting industries from unfair and less virtuous practices. Exploiting the growth of electric mobility to strengthen the integration of variable renewable energies into power systems. Ensuring that the European Union (EU) has the appropriate resources to meet the multiple industrial and technological challenges linked to EVs in the context of polycrises. Only some of these have been covered in this study, as EVs cannot be reduced to batteries alone, and involve many other key equipment and issues, hence the need to have an EV based approach, as opposed to one centered around battery-cells.
Topic:
Mobility, Transportation, Energy, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Global Focus

5. Forecasts of Electric Vehicle Penetration and its Impact on Global Oil Demand

Author:
Marianne Kah, Hon Xing Wong, and Jasmine Chiu
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of global oil demand, with passenger vehicles and trucks making up by far the largest fraction. Many countries with decarbonization goals therefore seek to expand electrification of road transport to meaningfully decrease reliance on this fossil fuel. The degree to which electric vehicle (EV) penetration can alter global oil demand has implications for whether more stringent government decarbonization policies will be needed to reach net zero targets. This report, part of an oil and gas research initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, compiles medium- and long-term forecasts of EV penetration and addresses the question of whether the sharp increase in EV sales in recent years—a fourfold rise from 2019 to 2021—is projected to continue or even accelerate. It compares survey responses from 14 entities, including governments, think tanks, oil companies, consultants, and investment banks in the fourth quarter of 2021 with a similar survey conducted in 2019. The report examines forecasts for passenger EV sales and fleet share as well as those for electric commercial trucks out to 2050, and considers some of the key underlying drivers of passenger vehicle oil demand (e.g., population growth, GDP growth, battery cost trends). Some forecasters offered multiple scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), carbon constrained, and net zero carbon emissions (NZ) by 2050, with meaningfully different results. Overall, survey respondents anticipate an acceleration in the rate of EV penetration in passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks in the medium and long term, both in terms of sales and the ensuing share of the total fleet.
Topic:
Oil, Fossil Fuels, Transportation, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Global Focus