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72. COVID-19 and Global Value Chain
- Author:
- Hyoungmin Han
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing spread of COVID-19 has increased biological risks from infectious diseases and limits the movement of human and material resources. Various evidence supports that there is a significant correlation between COVID-19 and the globalized production network. This study aims to analyze the changes in the global value chain structure “before and after” the spread of COVID-19 and derive government-level countermeasures and policy tasks using quantitative data, empirical analysis, case study, and corporate survey.
- Topic:
- Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and Global Focus
73. Spring 2022 edition of Strategic Visions
- Author:
- Casey VanSise and Alan McPherson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Visions
- Institution:
- Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
- Abstract:
- News from the Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Spring 2022 Colloquium . . . . . . . . 2 Columnist Trudy Rubin at CENFAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spring 2022 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 First CENFAD Emerging Scholar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Thanks to the Davis Fellow . . . . . . 4 News from the CENFAD Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . 9 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Robert “Bob” Vitalis . . . . . . . 11 Dr. Elizabeth R. Varon . . . . . . . . . 15 Dr. Matthew Specter . . . . . . . . . . 19 Dr. Miguel La Serna . . . . . . . . . . 25 Dr. Paul Adler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Short Essay: “The Stable Republic of Brazil,” by Dr. Philip Evanson . . . . . 35 Book Reviews Her Cold War: Women in the U.S. Military, 1945-1980, reviewed by Ariel Natalo-Lifton . . . . . . . . . . . 40 American Exceptionalism: A New History of an Old Idea, reviewed by Graydon Dennison . . . . . . . . . 46
- Topic:
- Economy, History, Interview, COVID-19, Strategic Interests, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America
74. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
75. Shift to renewable energy could be a mixed blessing for mineral exporters
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The world’s transition to sustainable energy systems has suddenly become a boon to countries rich in critical minerals used in clean energy technologies like rechargeable batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Among these critical minerals are aluminum, coltan, copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, rare earths, lithium, tantalum, and cobalt. Given that these minerals are key to building sustainable energy systems, vital for ensuring military might, and often extremely valuable, will countries with large, exportable endowments of these minerals fall prey to the resource curse? Hendrix says these countries may find their newfound wealth to be a mixed blessing. The size of the markets for these resources and their marginal production costs suggest that they do not have the potential to generate massive rents the way that oil and gas production have. Given that these rents are the source of many ills—authoritarianism, reduced investment in human capital, poor human rights records—this is good news. But because several of these minerals can be mined artisanally, they may lead to governance challenges related to armed conflict. Their status as strategic resources will invite major power meddling and interventions—but only if mineral-rich economies are forced to align themselves and access to their resources with a major power, like the United States or China. The 20th century’s scramble to secure oil resources led to cursed dynamics in oil-rich societies, but historical precedent is not destiny. Mineral-rich countries may avoid the resource curse, especially if they develop diverse investment and trading relationships to balance major power interests in their mineral wealth and embrace industry- and civil society–led good governance initiatives around mineral resources.
- Topic:
- Economy, Exports, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
76. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?
- Author:
- Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jesse Lastunen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2–1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Finance, Economy, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
77. Prosperity and Resilience: Diverse Production and Comparative Advantage in Modern Economies
- Author:
- David Henig and Anna Guildea
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- A common version of trade theory suggests that countries will specialise in a limited number of products. Using the example of David Ricardo from 1817, England specialises in cloth and Portugal in producing wine – and then they trade with each other to mutual benefit. However, this is a crude version of comparative advantage that routinely leads to political concerns about trade. Today the prime concern is that Europe and other developed countries have become too dependent on China by allowing the logic of comparative advantage to work. In short, trade has made us vulnerable. The observed reality is different. Most advanced economies produce and export a broad range of goods and services. Their governments have similar aspirations to develop and support diverse manufacturing and services, including in the most traded global sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, business services, and food and drink. Modern specialisation comes in countries producing various, but not all, products within global supply chains. Patterns of trade suggest such specialisation has allowed countries to both grow and become resilient to individual shocks. Knowledge and ownership of the whole supply chain is more important than producing everything.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Economy, Services, Resilience, WTO, and Production
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
78. Is the post-war trading system ending?
- Author:
- Uri Dadush
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The world trading system is reeling from the trade war between China and the United States, the disabling of the World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Understanding and repeated rule-breaking by WTO members. This does not mean the end of the post-war system, but it is being transformed into a more complex, politicised and contentious set of trade relationships. The new framework is likely to evolve around a WTO in maintenance mode with weak and largely unenforceable rules, and three blocs built by regional hegemons. Trade within the blocs will be relatively free and predictable, but the blocs are far from cohesive, contributing to the politicisation of the system. Trade relations between the blocs, especially among the regional hegemons, will be tense and potentially unstable. Countries across the world need to rethink their trade and foreign policies to reflect the new reality. They need to continue to lend support to the WTO but also to accelerate work on regional and bilateral deals, while entering plurilateral agreements on specific issues – within the WTO if possible, or outside it if not. Beyond these general prescriptions, the priorities of different economies vary greatly. The trade hegemons of China, the European Union and the US face vastly different challenges. Middle powers on the periphery of the regional blocs, or outside them, such as Brazil, India and the United Kingdom, face an especially arduous struggle to adjust to a less predictable system. Small nations will be forced into asymmetrical deals with the hegemons or will play them off against each other, adding to the politicisation of trade relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Measuring the intangible economy to address policy challenges
- Author:
- Marie Le Mouel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- European economies exhibit the so-called ‘productivity puzzle, whereby investments’ in digital technologies and intangible assets have not delivered the hoped-for productivity gains. Explanations for this puzzle lie in the unequal ability of companies to make use of these technologies, and resulting patterns of market concentration, productivity divergence and dampened business dynamism. Access to firm-level data is essential to properly understand these rich dynamics. The purpose of the first work package of the MICROPROD project was to improve the firm-level data infrastructure, expand the measurement of intangible assets and enable cross-country analyses of these productivity trends. The MICROPROD researchers developed the Micro Data Infrastructure (MDI), a centralised platform that harmonises access to the firm-level data gathered by national statistical institutes. The data infrastructure developed through this work package offers valuable insights into the evolution of productivity across the European Union and into the effects of digitalisation and globalisation. It can thus generate important evidence for designing policies to support the European Commission’s policy objectives, especially for achieving the digital and green transitions. In addition, the research enabled by this data infrastructure and carried out within the context of MICROPROD can provide valuable lessons about the response of European economies to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, European Union, Digital Economy, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
80. Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty during the euro’s lifetime
- Author:
- Monika Grzegorczyk and Francesco Papadia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- It is a cliché in official economic institutions’ publications and their leaders’ speeches to lament exceptional uncertainty. The complaint does, however, ring true currently. A solid empirical basis should be given to this view by properly measuring macroeconomic uncertainty. To measure macroeconomic uncertainty, we start from observable forecasts of macroeconomic variables, which are transformations of underlying economic conditions. By observing how forecasts change over time, we measure the flow of macroeconomic surprises. The more intense the flow of surprises, the greater uncertainty can be said to be. Greater differences among forecasts are also evidence of uncertainty. We draw out four indicators of macroeconomic uncertainty, measured over the lifetime of the euro: How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution for the same time period change over time; How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution deviate from realised outcomes; How the macroeconomic forecasts of different institutions deviate from one other; How dispersed the forecasts of different professionals are. We also measure whether the ‘stag-‘ or the ‘-flationary’ component is stronger in the overall stagflationary shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Economy, Institutions, Macroeconomics, Uncertainty, and Euro
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus