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61. Covid Döneminde Finansal Varlıklar Arasındaki Nedensellik Farklılaşması (Causality Differentiation Between Financial Assets During COVID Era)

Author:
Üyesi Hidayet Güneş
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Covid pandemisi her alanda olduğu gibi ekonomik düzende de eski düzenden farklılıkları içerisinde barındırmaktadır. Bundan dolayı yatırımcılar, finansal varlık seçiminde daha dikkatli ve seçici davranmak durumundadırlar. Yeni koşullara uyum sağlayan yatırımcıların getirilerini artırabilme uyum sağlayamayanların ise zorluklarla karşılaşabileceği bir dönem içerisinde bulunulmaktadır. Bu yüzden çalışma, Türkiye’deki çeşitli finansal varlıklar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin Covid döneminde farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığını belirleyebilmek için yapılmıştır. 29 Ocak 2018-10 Mart 2020 tarihleri arası Covid öncesi, 11 Mart 2020-22 Nisan 2022 tarihleri arası Covid dönemi olarak belirlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda-Yamamoto testi ile araştırılmıştır. Covid öncesi dönemde gösterge faiz oranının diğer tüm değişkenlerin nedeni olarak belirlenirken Covid döneminde bu durumun ortadan kalktığı tespit edilmiştir. Covid döneminde CDS primi ve Euro/TL kuru değişkenlerinin gösterge faiz oranının nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca Covid döneminde döviz kurlarının çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi içerisine girdikleri belirlenmiştir. Son olarak Dolar/TL kurundan CDS primine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin hem Covid öncesi hem de Covid dönemlerinde aynı kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’deki finansal piyasa ve varlıklar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi üzerinde Covid pandemisinin etkisinin olduğu sonucu ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bundan dolayı piyasa oyuncularının fonlarını yönetirken, ortaya çıkan yeni durumları göz önünde bulundurarak yatırımlarını gerçekleştirmeleri kendi fon getirileri açısından önem arz etmektedir.
Topic:
Economy, Currency, COVID-19, and Financial Assets
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

62. Deglobalisation and Protectionism

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Trade in goods has slowed markedly since the global financial crisis (GFC), but there is no deglobalisation: most countries have seen increased international integration across nearly all goods, services and factor markets. China has become more self-reliant and is a notable exception in goods trade. Despite some dramatic instances, protectionism has largely been kept at bay and trade in goods remains quite free, perhaps freer than it was before the GFC. The proliferation and deepening of free trade agreements have contributed to this outcome. There has been deglobalisation of capital markets, but not because of protectionism. Despite efforts to erect barriers in some sensitive sectors, technology flows quite freely across borders because of the internet. However, trade policy uncertainty increased after the election of President Trump, a trend that persists under President Biden, and the biggest challenge is to avoid backsliding. There are many missed opportunities in the globalisation of services and of capital flows – especially those to developing countries. Increased migration remains potentially the largest source of gain from globalisation, but it is also the most fraught politically.
Topic:
Economy, Trade, Trade Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Greeniums in sovereign bond markets

Author:
Monika Grzegorczyk
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The total market value of green bonds exceeded half a trillion dollars in 2021 and will increase to $1 trillion by the end of 2022. The growing European green sovereign bond market has a value of close to €147 billion at issuance. We study whether investors price green sovereign bonds differently to normal sovereign bonds. We do not expect to find a so-called ‘greenium’: the promise attached to green sovereign bonds is rather loosely defined and green and normal sovereign bonds are both backed by the full faith and credit of their respective governments. However, when systematically matching green and normal sovereign bonds using a number of criteria, including date of issuance and maturity, a small greenium can be measured. More research is needed to understand why rational investors do not arbitrage away this greenium.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Public Debt, Bonds, Green Economy, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. The impact of artificial intelligence on the nature and quality of jobs

Author:
Laura Nurski and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI), like any workplace technology, changes the division of labour in an organisation and the resulting design of jobs. When used as an automation technology, AI changes the bundle of tasks that make up an occupation. In this case, implications for job quality depend on the (re)composition of those tasks. When AI automates management tasks, known as algorithmic management, the consequences extend into workers’ control over their work, with impacts on their autonomy, skill use and workload. We identify four use cases of algorithmic management that impact the design and quality of jobs: algorithmic work-method instructions; algorithmic scheduling of shifts and tasks; algorithmic surveillance, evaluation and discipline; and algorithmic coordination across tasks. Reviewing the existing empirical evidence on automation and algorithmic management shows significant impact on job quality across a wide range of jobs and employment settings. While each AI use case has its own particular effects on job demands and resources, the effects tend to be more negative for the more prescriptive (as opposed to supportive) use cases. These changes in job design demonstrably affect the social and physical environment of work and put pressure on contractual employment conditions as well. As technology development is a product of power in organisations, it replicates existing power dynamics in society. Consequently, disadvantaged groups suffer more of the negative consequences of AI, risking further job-quality polarisation across socioeconomic groups. Meaningful worker participation in the adoption of workplace AI is critical to mitigate the potentially negative effects of AI adoption on workers, and can help achieve fair and transparent AI systems with human oversight. Policymakers should strengthen the role of social partners in the adoption of AI technology to protect workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Inclusion, and Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Is Foreign Direct Investment Losing Clout in Development?

Author:
Axel Berger and Alexandros Ragoussis
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, only a single projection of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows by the United Nations influential “World Investment Report” has proposed a negative outlook in the medium term. Based partly on surveys of business executives, these forecasts reflect ex¬pecta¬tions of investment growth which, however, have repeated¬ly failed to materialise. In fact, FDI flows to develop¬ing countries have remained stagnant over the past decade. Such wishful thinking is nurtured by a long series of positive narratives and facts about foreign investment. FDI has been one of the pillars of international development efforts for over 70 years. Its promise has not been limited to critical finance, but extends to longer term competitiveness through access to better technology, managerial know-how and, above all, prosperity through more and better paid jobs in the formal sector. From the old prescriptions of the so-called Washington Consensus to the hopeful Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the dominant development narrative has therefore favoured a rather indiscriminate pursuit of investment volume. This brief calls for rethinking of narratives and policies that help to improve the impact of FDI, based on secular trends that challenge our expectations. Four such trends stand out: First, while other sources of finance for development have grown considerably over the last decades, foreign invest¬ment has not followed the trend. Second, the kind of investment that is associated with stronger gains and longer term commitment in host economies – greenfield FDI – has also been in consistent decline as a share of total invest¬ment, while mergers and acquisitions and project finance have gained in importance. Third, the top 100 multinational enterprises (MNEs), accounting for nearly a quarter of global FDI stock, rely less on employment today than they used to in order to grow their foreign presence. Job creation, knowledge transfer and spillovers are therefore less likely to materialise through the presence of mega-firms and their corresponding investment at scale. Fourth, the growth of Chinese outward FDI within a strategic expan¬sionary political agenda stands to change rules and attitudes towards foreign investment moving forwards. We argue that, collectively, these trends invite a renewed conversation around the kind of foreign investment we want and expectations of this source of finance for develop¬ment. These facts obscure neither the broad benefits of FDI to developing countries, nor the value proposition of FDI attraction. Rather, they raise questions about expectations, priorities and the alignment of investment policy with the realities experienced across develop¬ing countries. To that end, we propose four priorities that stand to make a difference in the current context. We call for policy-makers to: 1) Place additional emphasis on retention of investment and linkages with the domestic economy. 2) Try new approaches for FDI attraction that focus on improving domestic investment facilitation frameworks. 3) Be selective as to investment sources and activities in order to mitigate political risks and align inward investment better with sustainable development. 4) Add evidence to improve our understanding of invest¬ment and inform decision-making. Overall, it is critical to engage in a serious multi-stakeholder conversation around expectations, actors and solutions that respond to the investment reality of today.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Reassessing Recruitment Costs in a Changing World of Labor Migration

Author:
Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Recent years have seen national governments, multilateral organizations, civil society, and private-sector groups take steps to promote the fair and ethical recruitment of migrant workers, including efforts to reduce or eliminate recruitment costs. High recruitment costs can result in workers taking on a financial burden that can only be serviced through high-interest loans or debt bondage, placing them in a more vulnerable position and curtailing the income they can then save or send to loved ones via remittances. Still, progress to address recruitment costs has been uneven to date, and the pandemic has been a major setback. The public-health crisis has seen some existing costs rise or fluctuate wildly and new ones emerge (e.g., fees associated with COVID-19 testing and quarantine), with particularly pronounced effects in low- and middle-skilled sectors and informal employment. This has put working abroad out of reach for some would-be migrants while exposing others who travel abroad for work to new risks. This policy brief explores how the pandemic has affected costs for migrant workers at every stage of their journey, with a focus on new public-health measures and other additional expenses. It also reflects on what these developments mean for future efforts to promote fair and ethical recruitment. The brief is the first publication resulting from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the SDC’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, Labor Issues, Governance, Employment, Economy, COVID-19, Recruitment, Immigration Policy, and Recession
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Have trade agreements been bad for America?

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff, Robert Z. Lawrence, and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Many Americans are persuaded that trade agreements of the last 40 years have been a costly mistake. To be sure, open markets leave some people behind, and promises to help those hurt were broken. But on balance, expanding trade has greatly benefited the US economy, and policy approaches taken need to be built on rather than abandoned. Alan Wm. Wolff, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Robert Z. Lawrence say more must be done to help those harmed, but protectionism is not the solution. The international trading system needs more outspoken US support and leadership if it is to be maintained and improved.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

68. Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Demand for critical minerals—bauxite, cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals that underpin solar, wind, geothermal, and other forms of renewable energy and electric vehicles—is already booming and is projected to continue to grow at a rapid pace. Africa’s mineral-rich developing economies could benefit greatly from this increase in demand. Many African economies have vast critical mineral reserves, and their nascent industrial sectors imply vast export potential. These countries could increase the benefits they reap from these minerals by building downstream capacity in processing—the steps that turn mined ore (bauxite, iron ore) into refined intermediate goods (aluminum, steel). To do so, however, they need to improve their infrastructure, investment climate, and governance and learn to navigate an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment. Hendrix assesses the challenges facing four critical mineral–rich developing African economies: Guinea (bauxite); the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt); Madagascar (graphite and nickel); and Mozambique (graphite). The solutions he offers include (a) embracing hydropower potential—which is vast in these countries—while paying attention to social costs and distributive impacts, (b) exempting refinery-related capital goods and industrial inputs from import duties, (c) locating downstream capacity in areas of relative stability, and (d) leveraging external policy anchors to provide policy stability and transparency.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Economy, Supply Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

69. The portfolio of economic policies needed to fight climate change

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Christian Gollier, and Jean Tirole
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Climate change poses an existential threat. The authors argue that carbon pricing and green research and development (R&D) support are good economics, but their implementation can be improved. Even if carbon prices are generalized and given more substance, green R&D is still likely to be smaller than needed. Much more money must be spent on it than is now the case, and this money must be properly allocated in order to have an impact. Moreover, done well, other policies, such as standards, bans, and targeted subsidies, can be good economics. But they have often been incoherent and their implementation is delicate. The authors also argue that domestic and international compensation is key to the acceptability of efficient policies. Finally, although a country’s emissions will not materially alter the course of climate change, individual countries can still show the way ahead: They can develop technologies that can be used by other, poorer, countries. They can provide leadership/momentum on global agreements and on the need to fund climate change policies in developing economies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Boom-bust Cycles Revisited: The Role of Credit Supply

Author:
Hyo Sang Kim, Sangyup Choi, and Yuri Kim
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study investigates the impacts of credit supply on economic growth and financial crisis. Excess credit supply can make the economy and financial markets more vulnerable. While credit supply can drive economic growth by reallocating resources, it can also make the economy and financial markets more fragile. Asset prices sharply fall when deleveraging occurs in the case of a negative shock to the financial or real sector in a system where credit is excessively supplied. Furthermore, economic activity might be substantially reduced, extending the length and breadth of the recession.
Topic:
Markets, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus