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461. Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Asymmetries

Author:
Luca Guerrieri and Matteo Iacoviello
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear general equilibrium model where occasionally binding collateral constraints on housing wealth drive an asymmetry in the link between housing prices and economic activity. The estimated model shows that, as collateral constraints became slack during the housing boom of 2001-2006, expanding housing wealth made a small contribution to consumption growth. By contrast, the housing collapse that followed tightened the constraints and sharply exacerbated the recession of 2007-2009. The empirical relevance of this asymmetry is corroborated by evidence from state- and MSA-level data.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Housing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

462. Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

Author:
George Alessandria and Sangeta Pratap
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the source and consequences of sluggish export dynamics in emerging markets following large devaluations. We document two main features of exports that are puzzling for standard trade models. First, given the change in relative prices, exports tend to grow gradually following a devaluation. Second, high interest rates tend to suppress exports. To address these features of export dynamics, we embed a model of endogenous export participation due to sunk and per period export costs into an otherwise standard small open economy. In response to shocks to productivity, the interest rate, and the discount factor, we find the model can capture the salient features of export dynamics documented. At the aggregate level, the features giving rise to sluggish exports lead to more gradual net export reversals, sharper contractions and recoveries in output, and endogenous stagnation in labor productivity.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

463. Do Politicians Serve the One Percent? Evidence in OECD Countries

Author:
Pablo Torija
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Present social movements, as “Occupy Wall Street” or the Spanish “Indignados”, claim that politicians work for an economic elite, the 1%, that drives the world economic policies. In this paper we show through econometric analysis that these movements are accurate: politicians in OECD countries maximize the happiness of the economic elite. In 2009 center-right parties maximized the happiness of the 100th-98th richest percentile and center-left parties the 100th-95th richest percentile. The situation has evolved from the seventies when politicians represented, approximately, the median voter.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Democracy, Representation, Elites, and Occupy Wall Street
Political Geography:
Global Focus

464. (Re-) Conceptualising the Space of Markets: The Case of the 2007-9 Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Andrew Jones
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The 2007-9 period saw an unprecedented crisis emerge in global financial markets with the collapse of several large western financial institutions, and the nearest moment of systemic crisis yet witnessed in the globalized financial system. The crisis has thus provoked a significant questioning of market theories, and in particular understandings of market within orthodox neoclassical economics. Within the social sciences, a significant element of this response has built on a growing heterodox socioeconomic literature which is heavily critical of hegemonic conceptions of the market within economics. However, whilst a small body of work in economic geography has begun to engage with this literature, geographical thinking has not directly sought to conceptualise the nature and significance of market spatiality. Utilizing a cultural economy approach, this paper therefore argues that economic geographical theories need to foreground the concept of market rather than treat markets as a ‘component’ of wider processes. It further contends that the concept of the ‘market’ needs to be reconceptualised in a way that captures the spatialities of markets and the difference that space makes to market behaviours and outcomes. Drawing on the growing heterodox socioeconomic literature on markets, it thus proposes a practice-oriented ‘socio-spatial approach’ for framing conceptions of market spatiality, arguing that such a spatial epistemology opens up a range of theoretical possibilities for further contesting hegemonic neoclassical theories of the market beyond current socioeconomic critiques. It seeks to illustrate the utility of such a framework through a case study analysis of the limitations inherent in existing policy practices surrounding the early phase of the recent global financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

465. The Impact of Formal Institutions on Knowledge Economy

Author:
Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, Simplice A. Asongu, and Voxi Amavilah
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Using Kauffman, Kraay, and Mastruzzi governance indicators, this article analyzes the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy- by assessing how the enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) through good governance mechanisms affects the knowledge economy. The article also employs the World Bank’s four components of the knowledge economy index characteristic of its knowledge for development (K4D) framework. We estimate panel data models for 22 Middle East & North African and Sub-Sahara African countries over the period 1996-2010. The results show that for this group of countries the enforcement of IPR laws (treaties), although necessary, is not a sufficient condition for a knowledge economy. The results also suggest that other factors are more likely to determine the knowledge economies of these nations. Overall these findings have important implications for both policy and further research.
Topic:
Economics, Institutions, Knowledge Economy, and Panel Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

466. Exports and Olympic Games: Is there a Signal Effect?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Felix J. Richter
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Rose & Spiegel (2011) find that Olympic Games host countries experience significant positive, lasting effects on exports. They interpret their results as an indication that countries use the hosting of such events to signal openness and competitiveness. We challenge these empirical findings on the grounds that a comparison of structurally different and non-matching groups of countries might suffer from a selection bias. We demonstrate that with an appropriate matching and treatment methodology, the significant Olympic effect disappears.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Olympics, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

467. Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: What Lessons From the Global Financial Crisis?

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
During the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, emerging market economies (EMEs) loosened monetary policy considerably to cushion the shock. In previous crises episodes, by contrast, EMEs generally had to tighten monetary policy to defend the value of their currencies, to contain capital flight, and to bolster policy credibility. Our study aims to understand the factors that enabled this remarkable shift in monetary policy, and also to assess whether this marks a new era in which EMEs can now conduct countercyclical policy, more in line with advanced economies. The results indicate statistically significant linkages between some characteristics of the economies and their ability to conduct countercyclical monetary policy. We find that macroeconomic fundamentals and lower vulnerabilities, openness to trade, and international capital flows, financial reforms, and the adoption of inflation targeting all facilitated the conduct of countercyclical policy. Of these factors, the most important have been the financial reforms achieved over the past decades and the adoption of inflation targeting. As long as EMEs maintain these strong economic fundamentals, continue to reform their financial sector, and adopt credible and transparent monetary policy frameworks such as inflation targeting, the conduct of countercyclical monetary policy will likely be sustainable.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

468. Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy

Author:
Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Linde
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper uses a New Keynesian DSGE model of a small open economy to compare how the e¤ects of fiscal consolidation di¤er depending on whether monetary policy is constrained by currency union membership or by the zero lower bound on policy rates. We show that there are important di¤erences in the impact of fiscal shocks across these monetary regimes that depend both on the duration of the zero lower bound and on features that determine the responsiveness of inflation.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Theory, Fiscal Policy, and Consolidation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

469. How Do Laffer Curves Differ Across Countries?

Author:
Mathias Trabandt and Harald Uhlig
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We seek to understand how Laffer curves differ across countries in the US and the EU-14, thereby providing insights into fiscal limits for government spending and the service of sovereign debt. As an application, we analyze the consequences for the permanent sustainability of current debt levels, when interest rates are permanently increased e.g. due to default fears. We build on the analysis in Trabandt and Uhlig (2011) and extend it in several ways. To obtain a better fit to the data, we allow for monopolistic competition as well as partial taxation of pure profit income. We update the sample to 2010, thereby including recent increases in government spending and their fiscal consequences. We provide new tax rate data. We conduct an analysis for the pessimistic case that the recent fiscal shifts are permanent. We include a cross-country analysis on consumption taxes as well as a more detailed investigation of the inclusion of human capital considerations for labor taxation.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Theory, Human Capital, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

470. Individual Price Adjustment Along the Extensive Margin

Author:
Etienne Gagnon, David López-Salido, and Nicholas Vincent
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Firms employ a rich variety of pricing strategies whose implications for aggregate price dynamics often diverge. This situation poses a challenge for macroeconomists interested in bridging micro and macro price stickiness. In responding to this challenge, we note that differences in macro price stickiness across pricing mechanisms can often be traced back to price changes that are either triggered or cancelled by shocks. We exploit observed micro price behavior to quantify the importance of this margin of adjustment for the response of inflation to shocks. Across a range of empirical exercises, we find strong evidence that changes in the timing of price adjustments contribute significantly to the flexibility of the aggregate price level.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus