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451. 2014 Global Terrorism Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 14 years beginning in 2000 and ending in 2013. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GTI is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) which is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The GTD is considered to be the most comprehensive dataset on terrorist activity globally and has codified over 125,000 terrorist incidents. The report summarises trends in terrorism over time and analyses its changing patterns in terms of geographic activity, methods of attack, organisations involved and the national economic and political context. The index has also been compared to a range of socio-economic indicators to determine the key factors most closely associated with terrorism. In 2013 terrorist activity increased substantially with the total number of deaths rising from 11,133 in 2012 to 17,958 in 2013, a 61 per cent increase. Over the same period, the number of countries that experienced more than 50 deaths rose from 15 to 24. This highlights that not only is the intensity of terrorism increasing, its breadth is increasing as well. Terrorism is both highly concentrated as well as a globally distributed phenomenon. Over 80 per cent of the lives lost to terrorist activity in 2013 occurred in only five countries - Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. However, another 55 countries recorded one or more deaths from terrorist activity.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, Risk, Boko Haram, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Global Focus

452. The Economic Cost of Violence Containment

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
One of the major challenges in developing policies aimed at increasing peace is the difficulty of being able to accurately gauge the benefits that result from peace. Recognising this, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has developed a new and ground breaking methodology to estimate the cost of violence to the global economy, including calculations for 152 countries that detail the costs of thirteen different types of violence. This deeper insight into the breakdown of national costs of violence allows for better targeting of development assistance and also enables national governments to more accurately assess the costs associated with violence and the likely benefits that would flow from improvements in peace.
Topic:
Economics, Economy, Violence, Peace, and Containment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

453. A Paradigm Shift thatNever Will Be?:Justin Lin’s New Structural Economics (pdf)

Author:
Ben Fine and Elisa Van Waeyenberge
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper assesses the attempt by Justin Lin, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, to posit a new development paradigm through his New Structural Economics, NSE. Lin’s attempt to redefine development economics deserves scrutiny for at least two reasons. He launched his new framework from the platform that his position as Chief Economist at the Bank. Critical scrutiny of his propositions then allows for continued insights into the complex relationship between scholarship and policy at the Bank and further illuminates, more broadly, the role of the Bank across the spectrum of development economics, development studies and development policy. Second, Lin’s framework claims a return to a “structural” understanding of development, with a strong industrial policy rhetoric emanating from it. This has been greeted with considerable enthusiasm by erstwhile critics of the Bank. Closer scrutiny of the NSE, however, both reveals the flawed nature of its core theoretical notion of comparative advantage and exposes its strong, if unfortunately conservative, commitment to a flawed and incoherently applied neoclassical economics. These issues are explored across Lin’s propositions regarding structural change, the role of the state and finance and are further examined in the context of specific policy interventions that Lin attaches to the NSE.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, World Bank, and Economic structure
Political Geography:
Global Focus

454. Rhythms and Cycles in Happiness

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig, Malte Steenbeck, and Markus Wilhelm
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This study analyses time-dependent rhythms in happiness in three aspects. We show that the Sunday neurosis exists exclusively for men with a medium level of education and both men and women with high levels of education. Men with high levels of education may even experience a weekend neurosis. This study is the first to test for intra-monthly rhythms and to demonstrate that men with a lower educational background may suffer from negative effects on happiness towards the end of the month, potentially due to liquidity problems. The study is also the first to demonstrate that – even when controlling for health and income effects – happiness exhibits seasonal effects over the annual period, depending on gender and education.
Topic:
Economics, Happiness, and Neurosis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

455. Should We Clash or Should I Go? The Impact of Low Wage and Bad Working Conditions on the Exit–Voice Trade-off

Author:
Olivier Godechot and Zinaida Salibekyan
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Although Hirschman’s exit–voice theoretical model has been applied to labor markets, research up to now has not tested one of its most important features: the impact of job quality on exit–voice strategies. Hirschman’s model of consumer behavior explains that those individuals unsatisfied with a product’s quality are more likely to “voice,” whereas those more concerned with its price are more likely to “exit.” A rationale for this tradeoff is based on information: first, information on the price of alternative options is much more accessible than information on quality; second, voice produces more information than exit and favors opportunities for specific improvements. We transpose Hirschman’s assumptions to labor markets and use the French SalSa survey and DADS, declaration by employers on social data, to examine the conditions under which French employees are more likely to exit, and the conditions under which they are more likely to voice. Our results support the Hirschmanian hypothesis. A deterioration by one unit in our working-conditions index increases the probability of participation in collective action by 5 percentage points. An increase in log hourly wage by one unit decreases the probability of quitting by 5 percentage points.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:
Global Focus

456. Green Transformation towards Sustainable Development?

Author:
Lisa-Marie Althaus
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Both the concept of sustainable development (SD) and the new green transformation concepts (GTC) aim for the integration of environmental protection and development. Previous comparative research on these GTC is not based on theoretically founded crite- ria that are related to the established development paradigm of SD. The study closes this research gap by providing a conceptual comparison of different GTC versions as pub- lished by UNEP, the OECD, and the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis reveals that GTC concepts are indeed based on central goals and principles of SD. Unlike the concept of SD, the GTC acknowledges planetary boundaries as limits to growth. However, the more economy-focused concepts of UNEP and the OECD do not only disregard important social goals but also concerns of intergenerational equity and the globality principle of SD. In contrast, the WBGU focuses on civil society participation and both intra- and intergenerational equity by aiming for decisive institu- tional changes. It is shown that this GTC partly extends beyond the scope of SD and thus could mark an important step with regard to the further development of the concept.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

457. A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves

Author:
Sewon Hur and Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Emerging economies, unlike advanced economies, have accumulated large foreign reserve holdings. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in reducing debt rollover crises ("sudden stops"), akin to the role of bank reserves in preventing bank runs. We find that a small, unexpected, and permanent increase in rollover risk accounts for the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, the subsequent increase in foreign reserves holdings, and the salient resilience of emerging economies to sudden stops ever since. Finally, we show that a policy of pooling reserves can substantially reduce the reserves needed by emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Risk, and Foreign Reserves
Political Geography:
Global Focus

458. Asymmetric Information and the Death of ABS CDOs

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Larry Cordell, and Charles Thomas
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A key feature of the 2007 financial crisis is that for some classes of securities trade has practically ceased. And where trade has occurred, it appears that market prices are well below their intrinsic values. This seems especially true for those securities where the payoff streams are particularly complex, for example, structured finance ABS CDOs. One explanation for this is that information about these securities' intrinsic values since the crisis has been asymmetric, with current holders having better information than potential buyers. We first characterize the information asymmetries that were present in the structured finance ABS CDO market. Because many of the CDO dealers had partially or fully integrated the pipeline from mortgage originations through CDO issuance, they had informational advantages over potential buyers that could well have disrupted trading in CDOs as the crisis took hold in August of 2007. Using a "workhorse" model for pricing securities under asymmetric information and a novel dataset for the intrinsic values of ABS CDOs, we show how the resulting adverse selection problem could explain why the bulk of these securities either trade at significant discounts to their intrinsic values or do not trade at all.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

459. Revenge of the Steamroller: ABCP as a Window on Risk Choices

Author:
Carlos Ó. Arteta, Mark Carey, Ricardo Correa, and Jason Kotter
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We empirically examine financial institutions' motivations to take systematic bad-tail risk in the form of sponsorship of credit-arbitrage asset-backed commercial paper vehicles. A run on debt issued by such vehicles played a key role in causing and propagating the liquidity crisis that began in the summer of 2007. We find evidence consistent with important roles for both owner-manager agency problems and government-induced distortions, especially government control or ownership of banks.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Risk, Banking, and Commercialization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

460. A Robust Neighborhood Truncation Approach to Estimation of Integrated Quarticity

Author:
Torben G. Andersen, Dobrislav Dobrev, and Ernst Schaumburg
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We provide a first in-depth look at robust estimation of integrated quarticity (IQ) based on high frequency data. IQ is the key ingredient enabling inference about volatility and the presence of jumps in financial time series and is thus of considerable interest in applications. We document the significant empirical challenges for IQ estimation posed by commonly encountered data imperfections and set forth three complementary approaches for improving IQ based inference. First, we show that many common deviations from the jump diffusive null can be dealt with by a novel filtering scheme that generalizes truncation of individual returns to truncation of arbitrary functionals on return blocks. Second, we propose a new family of efficient robust neighborhood truncation (RNT) estimators for integrated power variation based on order statistics of a set of unbiased local power variation estimators on a block of returns. Third, we find that ratio-based inference, originally proposed in this context by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002), has desirable robustness properties in the face of regularly occurring data imperfections and thus is well suited for empirical applications. We confirm that the proposed filtering scheme and the RNT estimators perform well in our extensive simulation designs and in an application to the individual Dow Jones 30 stocks.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Models, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus