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11. An Uneven Global Rebound Will Challenge Emerging-Market and Developing Economies

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
As the US economy rebounds amid elevated inflationary pressures and Europe grows at a rapid clip, an uneven global rebound looms. Although emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) generally retain good access to global capital markets for now, their relatively slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination will continue to hamper their economic recoveries and strain their public finances—already stretched owing to the fiscal pressures of the pandemic over the past year and a half. Higher interest rates in the rich countries, particularly the United States, could tip EMDEs into liquidity and even solvency crises. The likelihood of crises is higher if advanced-economy central banks move abruptly, surprising markets. Global policymakers should prepare now by enhancing mechanisms for providing liquidity to EMDEs and, in cases of insolvency, for restructuring their sovereign debts. Perhaps even more important, the scope for uneven recovery can be limited if rich countries make an all-out effort to deliver vaccines globally and enhance less prosperous countries’ infrastructures for getting shots into arms.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Inflation, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

12. Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD: Revisiting the migration hump with panel data

Author:
David Benček and Claas Schneiderheinze
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Although merely based on cross-sectional evidence, the“migration hump” is widely interpreted as a causal relationship. Therefore, economic progress in developing countries is assumed to increase migration. For policy makers in destination countries that implies a sensitive trade-off between supporting development and reducing immigration pressures. In this paper we investigate whether the migration hump holds up to more scrutiny, finding that the cross-sectional pattern is misleading. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time consistently show a negative association between income and emigration. This result is independent of the level of income a country starts out at and thus casts doubt on any causal interpretation of the migration hump.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Migration, Economic Growth, Economic Development, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Emigration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Does the Belt and Road Initiative stimulate Chinese Exports? The Role of State-Owned Enterprises

Author:
Holger Görg and Haiou Mao
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper evaluates firms’ exporting responses to BRI and considers their heterogeneity in ownership types, product types, regional origin and trade mode. This is done by analyzing firm-product-destination level customs data from 2011 to 2015 in a gravity model framework. Our empirical results show that aggregate export behavior did not change significantly after BRI. However, ownership matters when evaluating firms’ reactions. SOEs increase their total exporting and average export value (the intensive margin) to BRI countries, while private domestic firms show no reaction to BRI at any margin. Further, our results on regional heterogeneity suggests that “open through the west”, i.e., boosting the development of western regions in China, did not appear to work in the short term. Our findings show clearly the implications of BRI’s impact from a firm level perspective.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Exports, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China and Global Focus

14. Five-Star Hubs: Conceptual Key to Innovation and Prosperity

Author:
Taleh Ziyadov
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
One thousand years ago two fundamental human concepts, namely history and time, were united for the first time by a great figure of the Silk Road region. Serving at the court of Qabus ibn Wushmagir (a great scion of the Ziyarid dynasty that ruled over the Southern Caspian basin in present-day Iran), a young man of around thirty by the name of Abu Rayhan Muhammad al-Biruni was provided with the wherewithal to engage in a lifelong, systematic quest to try to understand nations and societies— irrespective of geographic or cultural provenance—as they understood themselves. Surpassing even Herodotus and Thucydides in investigative open-mindedness, Biruni also went on to become the first to standardize a single, objective timescale measuring system or matrix within which all of the particulars of human history could be compared chronologically side by side.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Economic Development, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Global Focus

15. Self-Employment and Development

Author:
Juan Herreno and Sergio Ocampo
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
Selection into self-employment among the poor is dominated by subsistence concerns, which leads to high levels of unproductive self-employment in developing countries. We incorporate this view into an otherwise benchmark macro-development model by allowing for labor frictions. Standard models that rely only on financial frictions are at odds with crucial features of the data, including large self-employment rates among the poor and the response of labor markets after well-identified labor demand shocks. We study the efficacy of a wide range of development policies on occupational choices, prices, and productivity. We find that providing unemployment benefits improves selection into self-employment, increasing total-factor productivity (TFP). Self-employment grants and unconditional transfers lower TFP by making self-employment more attractive to low-productivity individuals. Finally, financial reforms that improve access to credit succeed in raising productivity, but they do not address the subsistence concerns of poor individuals. Self-employment is still concentrated among the poor after the reforms take place.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Human Capital, Macroeconomics, Economic Development, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Boosting Immigration: Harnessing Global Talent to Increase US Competitiveness, Innovation, and Prosperity

Author:
The Conference Board
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
As immigration reform remains in gridlock, a new report from a nonpartisan think tank whose membership is comprised of top-level business executives calls on policymakers to enact various changes to bolster America’s workforce and economic might. Published by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED), recommendations from the public policy think tank include streamlining the visa process to strengthen the country’s attractiveness to the most in-demand foreign workers, and increasing economically motivated offers of permanent residence.
Topic:
Immigration, Reform, Public Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

17. Restraining Ourselves: Helping by Not Hurting

Author:
Nathan Nunn
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
In this brief, I discuss the current state of economic development policy, which tends to focus on interventions, usually funded with foreign aid, that are aimed at fixing deficiencies in developing countries. The general perception is that there are inherent problems with less-developed countries that can be fixed by with the help of the Western world. I discuss evidence that shows that the effects of such ‘help’ can be mixed. While foreign aid can improve things, it can also make things worse. In addition, at the same time that this ‘help’ is being offered, the developed West regularly undertakes actions that are harmful to developing countries. Examples include tariffs, antidumping duties, restrictions on international labor mobility, the use of international power and coercion, and tied-aid used for export promotion. Overall, it is unclear whether interactions with the West are, on the whole, helpful or detrimental to developing countries. We may have our largest and most positive effects on alleviating global poverty if we focus on restraining ourselves from actively harming less-developed countries rather than focusing our efforts on fixing them.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Developing World, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

18. Gender Norms and Women’s Economic Empowerment in Low-Income Countries: What We Learned by Reviewing the Evidence

Author:
H. Elizabeth Peters, Shirley Adelstein, and Robert Abare
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Women around the world face barriers to participating in the labor force, especially in traditionally male-dominated sectors. Addressing these barriers in low-income countries can improve both women’s well-being and the countries’ entire economies (PDF). Building on Urban’s prior research, we recently completed a systematic review (PDF) of qualitative studies of women’s labor force participation and upward mobility. We focused on studies of the higher-productivity, male-dominated sectors of commercial agriculture, mining, and trade and found studies from 18 low-income countries, mostly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, but also in East Asia, South Asia, and Latin America. Barriers to economic empowerment observed by the studies were far ranging, including gender-related laws, violence and sexual harassment, and limited access to land, technology, technology skills, credit and capital, and social and business networks. But one of the strongest and most consistent findings from our review was the influence of social norms about gender.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. A Gendered Perspective on Changing Demographics: Implications for Labour, Financial and Digital Equity

Author:
Florencia Caro Sachetti, Gala Díaz Langou, and Fernando Filgueira
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
The demographic transition has been one of the greatest phenomena affecting development worldwide and its effects on gender equity are undeniable. Lower fertility and ageing populations create both challenges and opportunities for gender equity, while women still face obstacles towards labour, financial and digital inclusion. G20 countries are at very different stages of the process, yet most have birth rates below replacement levels and population is ageing. Adopting a comprehensive and intersectional approach to women’s economic empowerment that contemplates age – and gender – specific rights, priorities and needs is crucial to both fulfilling women’s rights and facing the challenges associated with demographic change.
Topic:
Demographics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Inequality, Finance, Digital Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Literature Review: Drivers of Migration

Author:
Jana Kuhnt
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Why do people leave their homes? This seemingly easy question requires a more complex answer. What ultimately prompts a person to leave if it is impossible to find a job due to a conflict that has destroyed all economic opportunities? Evidence suggests that the migration decision is a complex process that is dependent on a multitude of factors, such as migration governance regimes, migration and smuggler networks, access to technology, or individual characteristics such as age, gender and educational background. I use a theoretical framework to present the variety of determinants that have been put forward as influencing migration decisions at the macro-, meso-, and micro-level. This structured overview discusses their importance for different forms of migration and subsequently helps to identify gaps for further research.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Refugees, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus