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71. The End of History Revisited

Author:
Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Until a few years ago, many argued that liberal democracy was the most just and attractive political regime. The most prominent manifestation of this optimism was Francis Fukuyama’s thesis of the “end of history.” Ironically, many of the same social scientists who dismissed Fukuyama’s work out of hand at the time were themselves committed to equally far-reaching assumptions. Now, as the tides of history are rapidly turning, the hypotheses of theory are being reversed. Indeed, some authors today predict that as the conditions that made liberal democracy possible fade away, it is likely to be supplanted by illiberal democracy, competitive authoritarianism, or outright dictatorship. Such conclusions risk being just as rash as the more optimistic ones that preceded them.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, and Illiberal Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. 30 Years of World Politics: What Has Changed?

Author:
Francis Fukuyama
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Since the publication of the Journal of Democracy began in 1990, the political climate has shifted from one of democratic gains and optimism to what Larry Diamond labels a “democratic recession.” Underlying these changes has been a reorientation of the major axis of political polarization, from a left-right divide defined largely in economic terms toward a politics based on identity. In a second major shift, technological development has had unexpected effects—including that of facilitating the rise of identity-based social fragmentation. The environment for democracy has been further transformed by other slow-moving changes, among them the shift toward neoliberal economic policies, the legacy of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lowered expectations regarding democratic transitions. Sustaining democracy will require rebuilding the legitimate authority of the institutions of liberal democracy, while resisting those powers that aspire to make nondemocratic institutions central.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Legitimacy, and Democratic Decline
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. How ‘demos’ met ‘cracy’: debt, inequality, money

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Ugo Panizza
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
The recurrence of ever more destructive economic crises and patterns of pervasive indebtedness and inequality threaten the social fabric of our societies. Our main responses to these trends have been partial, focusing on symptoms rather than causes, often exacerbating rather than improving the underlying socio-economic dynamics. To reflect on these conditions and on ‘what needs to be done’ this paper turns to a similar socio-economic malaise faced by the city-state of Athens in the 6th century BC. Most historical studies dealing with this crisis focus on the comprehensive debt relief policy (seisachteia) implemented by Solon. We argue that this debt relief, although necessary, was the least important of Solon’s reforms. Solon read the problem of debt as a problem of money so he went on to reform the monetary and exchange system. But he did not think that these reforms alone could restore socioeconomic sustainability. For this, a redefinition of what was counted as valuable economic activity and as income had also to take place. And for all these to work, citizens had to be involved more in the commons. Far from only achieving socioeconomic sustainability, these reforms gave rise gradually to the demos that we meet in the golden age of Democracy. It is indeed interesting that Democracy, in its ideal type of the 5th century BC, finds its origin in the way in which a society responded to a major socioeconomic crisis, characterised by pervasive indebtedness and destabilising inequalities. Such a broader historical horizon may help us grasp better the problems, stakes and challenges of our times.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, History, Democracy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Greece and Global Focus

74. Global Governance in 2030: Prospective Scenarios on the Future of Politics

Author:
Julia Pomares and María Belén Abdala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
We are living in an era of unprecedented changes. Mature democracies, emerging polities and the least electorally competitive countries are now facing new challenges in a globalized world. They are all dealing with technological breakthroughs, changes in global economic power, ageing populations and urbanization of their territories. Today’s picture shows that social inclusion seems to be an unfulfilled promise, and social cohesion is weakening. Some citizens are disenchanted, and political systems are having trouble adapting and responding to new demands. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer (2017), one in every two countries does not have faith in the system, and we still do not know how this picture is going to evolve. In democracies, pro-democracy attitudes coexist with openness to nondemocratic forms of governance, such as rule by experts (49 per cent), strong leaders (26 per cent) or the military (24 per cent). This picture might be part of a transition period or indicating that polities are not being able to cope with some of the new challenges. It is why we need to think about the future of politics and how these trends will shape global governance in the next 10 to 20 years. Are political systems ready to govern a digital economy? How should political leaders evolve to address radical changes in an automated world? What will the consequences be for global governance and for the role of G20? This paper analyzes current global trends in domestic politics and the prospective scenarios on the future of politics. To do so, the paper presents a brief description on three forces we know will forge the future: technological breakthroughs, demographic changes and shifts in global economic power. Later, it turns to the uncertainty of the future. We live in nation states, so we first attempt to devise how these forces will shape domestic politics. We then look at global governance and the way these trends will impact upon it. The final stop of this journey is an analysis of the implications of these scenarios for the role of the G20.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

75. Fragile States Index 2020

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Democracy, Fragile States, Brexit, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Sudan, Central Asia, Middle East, India, Uzbekistan, Libya, Colombia, South America, Lebanon, Mozambique, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

76. OFES COVID-19 Brefing Series: Preventing Government Corruption in Crises

Author:
Erica Shenin
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Preventing Government Corruption in Crises, the fifth paper in the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ (IFES) COVID-19 Briefing Series, looks closely at this question and offers guidance for democracy and governance practitioners, policymakers and supporters. Corruption undermines the efficiency and efficacy of government, which, in the short term, can derail the response to a public emergency. It also drives distrust in democratic institutions, including legislatures, executive agencies and courts. As a result, corruption by bad actors in public office – whether for personal or political gain – has the potential to damage the credibility and integrity of governments long after the immediate crisis has passed. The long-term ill effects of political corruption must not be ignored, given the potential for state capture and the entrenchment of incumbent regimes. This risk is especially concerning as many elections have been postponed and modified as a result of the health crisis, subverting the ultimate accountability measure for governments. The unprecedented volume of funds being deployed to address the COVID-19 crisis and bolster economies creates new opportunities for exploitation and undermining of accountability mechanisms in several key areas.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Democracy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. IFES Helps Shape UN's International Anti-corruption Agenda

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) in June 2021 is a milestone event that will reflect on progress made under the UN Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) since its inception. Most importantly, at the end of this session, the General Assembly has committed to producing an action-oriented political declaration to shape the international anti-corruption agenda for the coming years. “This event … has the potential to pave the way for strengthened global anti-corruption efforts and co-ordination between organisations active in the field of anti-corruption in the years to come.” – Secretariat of the Group of States Against Corruption The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) is an accredited observer to the Conference of the States Parties to UNCAC and welcomes the opportunity to inform this agenda based on three decades of experience supporting effective and accountable governing institutions in more than 145 countries. IFES believes that global commitment and cooperation on anti-corruption has become even more imperative as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has undermined existing transparency and accountability mechanisms globally and increased the risks of corrupt behavior. As part of our contribution to preparations for UNGASS 2021 and the development of a draft political declaration, IFES has recommended that the General Assembly include the following six priority areas in the agenda: Increasing transparency and accountability in political finance Addressing election-related corrupt practices Strengthening anti-corruption authorities and other independent institutions Strengthening judicial ethics and independence Leveraging civil society to bolster oversight and implementation Bolstering the UN Convention Against Corruption review process
Topic:
Corruption, International Cooperation, United Nations, Elections, Democracy, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2014: An Update

Author:
Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Michael Neureiter, and Chris A. Belasco
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work on the impact of US foreign assistance on democratic outcomes in recipient countries using newly available USAID Foreign Aid Explorer data covering the 2001–2014 period, as well as new outcome measures derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data. Building on the theoretical and empirical framework established in our previous study and in subsequent work in the field, we estimate: a) the effect of overall USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) expenditures on general indices of democracy, b) changes in the effects of DRG expenditures after 2001, and c) the conditions that moderate the impact of DRG funding at the country level in the contemporary era. We find that the effect of DRG expenditures decreased dramatically in the 2002–2014 period, relative to the modest effect shown in the previous study for the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. However, DRG aid remains effective in the current era under favorable conditions. Further analysis demonstrates important conditional effects related to patterns of DRG investment, such that aid has greater impact when levels of security assistance are low (indicating competing priorities) and when prior DRG investment is low (indicating diminishing returns). In addition, DRG is more effective at intermediate levels of democratization and less so in contexts of democratic backsliding.
Topic:
Security, Development, Globalization, Governance, Democracy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

79. Political Trust vs. Turnout in Modern Democracies

Author:
Izabela Kapsa
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article analyzes the relations between political trust - one of the most important values in the life of political communities - and election-related behaviors in the narrow meaning of voting. Researchers investigate the phenomenon of decreasing turnout as one of the expressions of democratic crisis. When studying such a complex problem, it is essential to search for multi-theme causes which might be helpful in understanding the topic and possibly finding a solution for it. The author of this article, while assuming the correctness of analyzes conducted thus far, which indicate that the problem lies in weaker attachment to political parties, less interest in politics and inadequate tools, raises questions whether the decreasing turnout in individual states may be related to the level of trust that citizens put in political institutions and whether there is a relation between these both indicators. In order to answer these questions, the author employs a quantitative analysis of data which derive from reports containing percentage levels of political trust and turnout in the elections, a comparative analysis, as well as an overview of literature on the subject.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Linking Values and Strategy: How Democracies Can Offset Autocratic Advances

Author:
Jessica Brandt, Zack Cooper, Bradley Hanlon, and Laura Rosenberger
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The United States and other liberal democracies face a persistent asymmetric threat from authoritarian challengers who aim to reshape the global order in their favor. Illiberal regimes use a wide range of tools across the political, economic, technological, and information domains to undermine democratic institutions and alliances, prevent criticism of their own regimes and governance systems, and establish norms and standards favorable to autocratic rule. In the case of digital information technology, these efforts go beyond shaping norms to controlling the infrastructure that transmits information itself. To date, democracies have been slow to adapt to this contest, allowing autocrats to seize the initiative by taking advantage of the openness of liberal systems. Fortunately, the United States can regain the initiative in this emerging competition with authoritarianism—if it addresses its vulnerabilities, leverages its strategic advantages, and reframes the contest on its own terms. The United States faces an array of domestic challenges—political polarization, inequality and racism, erosion of traditional media, a growing tech-government divide, flawed and porous political influence systems, and impaired economic competitiveness—that threaten to undermine the United States’ competitive strengths. Autocrats can leverage these cleavages and constraints in the short-term, but in the long-term democratic characteristics confer tremendous strategic advantages. The United States’ advantages include a vibrant civil society, dynamic and competitive economy, innovative private sector, and robust network of alliances. Leveraging these strengths requires a national strategy to offset autocratic advances by seizing on the advantages of open systems, building resilience into democratic institutions, and exploiting the brittleness of authoritarian regimes. This Task Force report outlines the logic and contours of such a national strategy across four overlapping non-military domains.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America