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1. Smart Operations: Rethinking Operational Art To Effectively Protect Civilians

Author:
Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The changing nature of armed conflict, where most of the victims are civilians accompanied by the devastation of civilian objects, requires rethinking the elements of operational art, which are adversary-centric at the expense of noncombatants who are ubiquitous in present-day battlefields. Respect for, and compliance with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is a panacea to violations against noncombatants in contemporary warfare. The principle of distinction is a sine qua non for the protection of civilians. The rules of targeting are at the heart of IHL, while the principle of distinction is the keystone in targeting guided by rules of engagement as the practical application of the legal constraints to combat. As such, the cognitive skills of the military in IHL are vital to the prevention of civilian death, mitigate incidental injury, and limit collateral damage in hostilities. This paper addresses the issue of how to mitigate civilian harm in contemporary hostilities through discourse analysis and a desktop survey. It is noted that the failure to master IHL at the operational and strategic levels in professional military education—as evidenced by doctrinal gaps in the application of operational art and military decision-making processes—renders the integration of humanitarian norms utopian. The oversight also reinforces the reticence to mitigate civilian harm in modern-day conflicts. This paper, inspired by prospect theory in military decision-making processes, posits that effective civilian protection requires smart operations involving a framework for enhanced risk analysis and mitigation of civilian harm in military decision-making processes. In executing smart operations, belligerents demonstrate effective integration of IHL into strategy, operations, and tactics, thereby enhancing prospects of return to peace.
Topic:
Civilians, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Armed Conflict, Decision-Making, Protection, and Risk Analysis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. How to Best Manage Data for Transformative Equality Policies?

Author:
Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
In this brief prepared within the scope of the Exploring Data for Gender Equal Cities project carried out with the support of the Consulate General of Sweden in Istanbul, data processes in equality policies are discussed and recommendations are put forward for decision makers to develop transformative policies.
Topic:
Inequality, Cities, Decision-Making, Equity, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Theory of developmental dictatorship

Author:
Hyungmin Park
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This article studies the developmental motives of a dictator under the modernisation hypothesis. He faces a trade-off between pursuing higher future gains with growing threats from the rise of the middle class and accepting lower gains for a more stable regime. I show that his optimal strategy is to invest in an underdeveloped economy for higher future returns. As the economy matures, investment declines as the focus shifts toward maintaining the regime. Without this threat, the economy regresses or fully develops depending on the profitability of investment and regime stability. My framework helps explain empirical puzzles about why some underdeveloped autocracies achieve faster economic growth. I also analyse how steady state varies by the length of future horizon under consideration. Contrary to Olson (1993)’s traditional theory that longer horizon concern makes high development, I find that a farsighted decision-making leads to a lower steady state.
Topic:
Economy, Dictatorship, Modernization, Decision-Making, and Regime Durability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Collective screening

Author:
Vincent Anesi and Peter Buisseret
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We study a dynamic principal-agent model in which the principal is a group whose members hold heterogeneous and evolving values from an agreement with the agent. Learning about the agent’s private information reduces the principals’ conflicts over their joint offer, mitigating a principal’s losses if she is not decisive over future offers. As a consequence, a principal in a group prefers to screen the agent more aggressively than a single principal. We study the dynamics of the principals’ collective choice, and obtain conditions under which decisive members of the group successively trade away their decision-making authority, leading inexorably to the concentration of negotiation power in the hands of a single principal.
Topic:
Economics, Political Science, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:
Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:
Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Future Warfare and Responsibility Management in the AI-based Military Decision-making Process

Author:
Alessandro Nalin and Paolo Tripodi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology for military use is growing fast. As a result, autonomous weapon systems have been able to erode humans’ decision-making power. Once such weapons have been deployed, humans will not be able to change or abort their targets. Although autonomous weapons have a significant decision-making power, currently they are not able to make ethical choices. This article focuses on the ethical implications of AI integration in the military decision-making process and how the characteristics of AI systems with machine learning (ML) capabilities might interact with human decision-making protocols. The authors suggest that in the future, such machines might be able to make ethical decisions that resemble those made by humans. A detailed and precise classification of AI systems, based on strict technical, ethical, and cultural parameters would be critical to identify which weapon is suitable and the most ethical for a given mission.
Topic:
Ethics, Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. An analysis of central bank decision-making

Author:
Maria Demertzis, Catarina Martina, and Nicola Viegi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The process by which central banks take decisions has evolved over the years, with a tendency towards independence and decisions taken by committees rather than individuals. Monetary policy committees can be set up formally in different ways, traditionally falling into one of two categories: individualistic or collegial. Individualistic committees reach decisions by voting and publish the votes of each of their members, while in collegial committees, decisions are typically reached collectively. The European Central Bank is an example of the latter, while the Bank of England follows an individualistic approach. Focusing on decision-making, a relevant question is whether the formal set-up in practice leads to different ways of deliberating and reaching monetary policy decisions. We look at decisions taken by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over more than 20 years to evaluate how different the decision-making process is in these three central banks. The results indicate that, irrespective of the committee type, their approach to consensus building when they take decisions is similar. The three central banks seem to value reaching decisions by unanimity, both on interest rates – the prime monetary policy instrument by definition – and on asset purchases. Decisions to tighten monetary policy are more often taken unanimously than decisions to ease monetary policy. When maintaining policy unchanged, decisions are usually backed by most committee members.
Topic:
Federal Reserve, Finance, Central Bank, European Central Bank, Decision-Making, and Bank of England
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

8. Action Learning for Frontline Humanitarians: a resource pack

Author:
Jennifer Doherty, Amelie Sundberg, and Alice Obrecht
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Course Pack
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The knowledge of frontline staff – those directly involved in programme implementation and monitoring – is fundamental to good humanitarian action. These individuals make decisions and solve problems every day in their work with crisis-affected populations. The interactions they have with communities produce important information on how to implement projects most effectively to meet local needs. Decisions stemming from this experiential knowledge can be as valuable as decisions reached through more formal, explicit evidence. The pack is for programme staff who are implementing projects, staff in monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning (MEAL) roles who are collecting data and evaluating projects, and for team leaders or managers who work with them. Individuals, project teams or cross-organisational and inter-agency groups can all use this approach.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Decision-Making, and Organizational Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. How Do The Main Negative Emotions Affect People's Political Decision Process? : “Fear, Anxiety And Anger"

Author:
Kevser Hülya Akdemir
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
In the post-modern era, the mobilization of previously large masses has been replaced by micro-groups dominated by new and distinct identities. As a result, the analysis and predictability of electorate behavior have decreased. The political decision-making processes of individuals have therefore been subjected to detailed analyzes. Emotions have become a significant subject of political psychology in terms of their effects on the political decision-making process of individuals. Emotions have also become an important topic in political psychology. Researches revealed that emotions have important effects on thoughts and decision-making processes. In this context, the article primarily aims to draw a rational framework on this subject by including modern “emotion” definitions and the impacts of people’s emotions on political decisions. Afterward, the article investigated the effect of negative emotions on political decision-making. In this context, anxiety, fear and anger are emphasized by using a descriptive approach. The article argues that negative emotions that are anxiety, fear, and anger, in particular, have positive contributions to the political decision-making process of individuals.
Topic:
Emotions, Decision-Making, and Political Psychology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Intrastate cultural and socio-political influences and the realisation of national security: A two-level correlational analysis

Author:
Dimitrios G. Pantazis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to examine how specific domestic social, political, and cultural motives affect the formation and implementation of national security agendas. The following assumptions drive the research rationale behind this essay: Security-making processes are considered non-similar among states due to different domestic political processes, cultural discourses, and socialisation patterns. Therefore, national security agents are constantly being guided by various intrastate settings, which construct attitudes that are ultimately reflected in policy formation and implementation through strategic behavioural manifestations. The realisation of national security is thus dependent on each state actor’s existent strategic culture, and given that, such choices cannot be contemplated in a strictly rational way. The methods of literature review and multi-layered analysis are applied throughout this study. In particular, this text’s reasoning is based on contextualisation, identification, categorisation of variables, and correlational implications. In relation to the findings, the theoretical examination of the objects assessed provides adequate clarification on the interaction between the domestic motives, decision-makers’ perspectives, and strategic cultural manifestations. Specifically, it was critically identified that the two last concepts can have a complementary function during security-making processes, hence producing unique outcomes for each state actor. Consequently, this paper wishes to contribute by giving direction for future research and broader methodological implications on the role of intrastate socio-political and cultural motives as sources of strategic culture and determinants of national security-making attitudes; without ignoring other factors that can respectively affect the aforementioned schemes.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Politics, Culture, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus