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62. The Prevention Agenda: Mapping Out Member States’ Concerns
- Author:
- Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Despite recent positive developments making forward progress on the Secretary-General’s call for a more preventive approach to crisis, in New York, discussions on prevention remain focused on difficult moments of crisis and must navigate deepening divisions in the Security Council. Member states agree that more effort should be made to prevent violent conflicts farther upstream, rather than to address them mainly when they are imminent or in progress (or on the Security Council agenda). However, as described in our previous briefing, “prevention” at the UN has not had enough conceptual clarity, which has raised sensitivities over a wide range of issues. This, in turn, has hindered implementation of a more strategic approach to prevention—especially upstream prevention—at the practical level. Indeed, the prevention agenda arrived at the UN just at the moment when the forces shaping multilateralism were shifting underneath it. The period of liberal internationalism ushered in by the end of the Cold War—with the United States in the lead—has receded in the wake of more statist and sovereigntist approaches to multilateralism. While member states support prevention as a general idea, they have a wide range of concerns regarding its implementation—making it difficult for member states to rally around it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Crisis Management, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
63. Toward a More Effective UN-AU Partnership on Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management
- Author:
- Daniel Forti and Priyal Singh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- The United Nations and the African Union (AU) have worked in tandem since the AU’s establishment in 2002. During this time, their partnership has evolved to focus increasingly on conflict prevention and crisis management, culminating in the 2017 Joint UN-AU Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. But while the organizations’ collaboration on peacekeeping has been extensively studied, other dimensions of the partnership warrant a closer look to understand how to foster political coherence and operational coordination. This report, done in partnership with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), therefore considers the evolution of the strategic partnership between the UN and the AU, with a focus on their approach to conflict prevention and crisis management. It looks at this partnership at the member-state level in the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council, as well as at the operational level between various UN and AU entities. It also assesses the partnership across several thematic issues, including the AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative; mediation; women, peace, and security; electoral support; peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction and development; and youth, peace, and security. Based on this analysis, the paper offers several recommendations to guide UN and AU stakeholders in improving cooperation. These include strengthening council-to-council engagement, working toward a collective approach to conflict prevention and crisis management, creating a dedicated team within the AU Peace and Security Department to support the partnership, better aligning work on peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction and development, building momentum on the AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative, and expanding diplomatic capacities to support the partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Crisis Management, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
64. What do we know about cyber escalation? Observations from simulations and surveys
- Author:
- Benjamin Jensen and Brandon Valeriano
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Do cyber operations alter how states respond to international crises in a way that creates incentives for decision makers to cross the Rubicon and use military force to settle disputes? This question is central to current cyber strategy debates and the idea of persistent engagement and defending forward in cyberspace. The answer is surprising: no. Based on the evidence, cyber operations offer a valuable escalatory offramp.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. Military Operations Planning and Goal-management: A Philosophical Perspective, Thoughts on how decision theory and ethics can help improve military goal-management
- Author:
- Robert Frisk and Linda Johansson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses and reviews some previous research concerning what we denote as ‘goal-management’, in other words how to set, apply and evaluate goals when conducting military operations planning. We aim to explain and answer the following question: In what way could a review of previous philosophical thoughts on goal-management, decision theory and ethics improve contemporary military operations planning concerning goal-management? We suggest a guideline (a planning tool) for how to conduct goal-management when planning military operations and exemplify our guideline with two fictive examples concerning the development of an Operational advice and Appreciation of Rules of Engagement. The paper concludes that the application of decision theory and ethics, i.e. important parts of philosophy, can contribute to military operations planning by focusing on three perspectives: an axiomatic, an ethical and a deliberative perspective.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Ethics, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. The Climate Crisis and the City: The Significance of Cities as the Perpetrator and the Victim of, and as “a” Solution to the Climate Crisis
- Author:
- Efe Baysal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Let us face it: we are in the midst of a catastrophe, a state of calamity unprecedented in human history. We are living in those scenarios that once depicted a terrible future due to “global warming”. Extreme weather events, not-so-natural disasters have become the new norm. Given the fact that more than half of the world’s population now live in urban areas, it is fair to say that these new climate norms pose an especially dire threat to cities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Crisis Management, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus
67. Stress Tests: An insight into crisis scenarios, simulations and exercises
- Author:
- Daniel Fiott
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Until the arrival of General Norman Schwarzkopf to United States Central Command (CENTCOM) in November 1988, American war planners assumed that the US’ biggest threat in the Middle East would come from a Soviet invasion of Iran. The Soviet Union had been a net exporter of oil until the late 1960s, but in order to meet its own growing industrial and energy demands Moscow looked increasingly to the Middle East and countries such as Iran to bolster its oil reserves. Based on his own reading, however, Schwarzkopf turned this planning assumption on its head and with CENTCOM he worked on a wargame based on an intra-regional conflict between Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia rather than a Soviet invasion. Apart from the precise details about potential US fatalities (Schwarzkopf and his team believed the US would suffer more casualties than it actually did), the general and his wargamers were right: Iraq eventually invaded and annexed Kuwait in August 1990 and Operation Desert Storm was over before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. Schwarzkopf’s wargame had been prophetic in preparing the US military for war with Iraq. Of course, the history of wargaming and scenario planning does not always mirror the success achieved by Schwarzkopf. Companies such as Shell that are famed for their in-house scenario planning departments do have notable periods of success, but the company’s ‘futures branch’ was nearly shut down three times in almost 50 years of scenario planning at the firm because Shell’s leaders saw little value in its work. In some cases, sound scenario planning and the assessments they lead to are not taken seriously enough: for example, vulnerability assessments of the Fukushima nuclear plant showed that there was a risk from natural disasters such as tsunamis but the consequences of these assessments were downplayed. Most of the time, however, crisis scenario planning unfortunately emerges in the wake of a major crisis such as the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 in the US or the global financial crisis of 2007.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
68. Responding to Earthquakes
- Author:
- Helene Juillard and Joris Jourdain
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- In fragile or developing states, large-scale earthquakes can turn back the development clock by years or even decades. It is not possible to eradicate earthquakes, but as most of the areas prone to earthquakes are known, it is possible to prepare and learn from past experiences in order to strengthen the humanitarian response and to ‘build back better’. This Lessons Paper reviews relevant grey and published literature to draw lessons from previous humanitarian responses following any type of earthquake, provided it occurred on dry land. The lessons originate from past humanitarian responses across sectors. In light of the literature review conducted for this paper, it appears that post-earthquake humanitarian responses mainly span the following sectors: debris management, shelter, health, livelihoods and economic recovery, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), education, food security, nutrition and protection.
- Topic:
- Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Earthquake, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Nepal and Global Focus
69. Shifting Mindsets: Creating a more flexible humanitarian response
- Author:
- Alice Obrecht
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- As humanitarian needs and situations change, and as our understanding of complex problems evolves, humanitarian agencies must be able to adapt. Yet in recent years, international humanitarian agencies have struggled with flexibility when it comes to adapting to context, changing the type and quantity of support at the right time, or responding quickly and appropriately to unexpected crises or challenges. To date, the flexibility of modern humanitarian agencies, and the capacities needed for response level flexibility, has not been explored in depth for modern crises. This is the end-of-project report for a two-year workstream that sought to address this gap by undertaking exploratory research on the support factors and barriers to flexibility and adaptation in contemporary humanitarian action.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Response, and Flexibility
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Shifting Mindsets | Section 5: Funding
- Author:
- Alice Obrecht
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- This standalone section of the ALNAP Study Shifting Mindsets: Creating a more flexible humanitarian response focuses on funding for greater flexibility. This is one of the three pillars that flexibility relies upon according to this research and also one of the starting points to make humanitarian responses more flexible. It covers types of humanitarian funding and their relationship to flexibility, characteristics of funding mechanisms that support flexible and adaptive humanitarian action, and the future of flexible bilateral funding.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Crisis Management, Donors, Funding, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus