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11. Building Climate Resilience in Urban Informal Settlements through Data Co-production

Author:
Giulia Sofia Sarno
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Climate change is worsening the number, frequency and duration of natural hazards across the globe, making disaster risk reduction and resilience building among the most pressing challenges ahead. According to UN-Habitat, informal settlements are where the impacts of climate change are the most acute in urban areas and strengthening resilience in these neighbourhoods represents a very complex yet urgent challenge.[1] Today, urban areas are home to 56 per cent of the world’s population and this figure is projected to increase to 60 per cent by 2030 and 68 per cent by 2050, with 90 per cent of the growth by 2050 expected to occur in less developed economies.[2] In these countries, population growth and displacement (including climate-driven migrations) will lead to rapid and unplanned urbanisation forcing a growing number of people into informal settlements. Currently, one billion people live in informal settlements, mostly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and this figure is expected to grow to 3 billion in 2050.[3]
Topic:
Climate Change, Crisis Management, Informal Settlement, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Leadership in police work applied to critical contexts: An integrative review and scientific mapping using VOSviewer and Google Trends tools

Author:
Lucius Paulo de Carvalho, Ana Paula Grillo Rodrigues, and Marcello Beckert Zappellini
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to identify cutting-edge studies on the phenomenon of leadership applied to police work, especially in critical contexts, based on an integrative literature review. The integrative review made it possible to survey publications on the subject in the Scopus, Web of Science, Ebsco Host, ScienceDirect, Core, and SciELO databases. Scientific mapping is complemented with the use of VOSviewer and Google Trends tools. The integrative review resulted in 15 studies that fit the research strategy, bringing different leadership approaches, such as instrumental, transformational, charismatic, consultative, ethical, authentic, military, destructive, and laissez-faire, through qualitative and/or quantitative studies. For bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, the research corpus was expanded to 63 articles, admitting documents that studied leadership with firefighters, military personnel, and police officers. The analysis showed almost no co-authorship link between the 129 authors. The co-occurrence analysis of keywords reveals that leadership strongly links with law enforcement, police, management, crisis management, emergency management, and decision-making, establishing a close relationship between these concepts and a semantic map that underlies the field of study. The analysis of trends by Google Trends in the science category indicates the stability of interest in the topic of leadership in the world. However, the theme of police leadership produced results close to zero. The findings reveal that few studies address leadership in police organisations, and even fewer if critical, dangerous contexts are examined. The trends analysed indicate that worldwide scientific interest in the subject remains low and the theme must be further explored.
Topic:
Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Police
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:
Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Health Financing in Times of Multiple Crises: Analysis and Recommendations

Author:
Christoph Strupat, Pooja Balasubramanian, Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of health systems and highlights the need for renewed efforts to finance pandemic preparedness, prevention and response (PPR) mechanisms, and universal health coverage (UHC). Two lessons emerge from this global health challenge. First, it has shown that global problems need global solutions, as well as the agency of local and national actors to make them work, so it is recommended that public health be considered a global public good. This requires solidarity between rich and poor countries to attain a globally “highest attainable standard” for managing pandemics and other public health emergencies. The provision of such a global public good requires substantial public resources. Furthermore, the focus should not only be on preventing the spread of diseases but also on detecting and fighting infectious diseases at their source. The second lesson is that prevention is a good investment, as it costs less than remedial interventions at later stages. Health systems can be considered as the means by which health priorities, such as pandemic PPR and UHC, can be operationalised. Studies show that health systems that could effectively leverage both robust health security core capacities (e.g. laboratories) and fundamental UHC interventions (e.g. accessible health facilities) were often in a better position to protect their citizens against the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the landscape of health financing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), it becomes clear that during the COVID-19 pandemic there was a substantial increase in international health financing. However, continued high out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) in LMICs points to a structural imbalance in health financing, which is one of the major barriers for achieving SDG3. Further contribution from international development assistance and an increase in domestic government expenditure by LMICs through improved mobilisation of domestic resources is therefore impera-tive. Funding gaps to achieve PPR and UHC in LMICs are small in relation to the projected costs of a pandemic such as COVID-19. However, as global debt levels soar, fiscal spaces to close these funding gaps become smaller. The following policy options for governments and international development partners should be considered to protect and improve spending on health in times of shrinking fiscal spaces: reallocation within budgets towards health, better priority-setting of health financing, and greater use of debt-to-health swaps, health taxes and national health insurance schemes. Importantly, investment in health is critical not just for the health benefits, but also because of the positive socio-economic impacts that result, in excess of the level of investment. Improved well-being and health outcomes translate into higher productivity and income, with a benefit–cost ratio of nine for low-income countries and 20 for lower-middle income countries. Given the high rates of unemployment in many LMICs, investments that create jobs in the healthcare sector are also beneficial for other sectors. Evidence shows that for every healthcare professional job that is created, 3.4 jobs are created on average in other sectors. As a large proportion of healthcare workers is female, these new jobs can be an opportunity for young women, in particular, and can help to promote female empowerment and gender equality. Altogether, these long-term benefits affirm that investment in health can enable large spillover effects on the social and economic dimensions of sustainable development and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Finance, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Health and Peace: The Future of International Emergency Health Responses during Violent Conflict

Author:
Dirk Druet
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Recent health emergencies such as the 2018–2020 Ebola crisis in DRC, in conjunction with the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate the importance of health responses that take the local context into account, especially in settings that are already affected by violent conflict. When humanitarian health responses fail to understand and adapt to their impact on conflict dynamics, they risk exacerbating those dynamics, impeding the health response, and placing health workers at risk. As healthcare becomes increasingly and globally politicized, it is more crucial than ever to recognize the links between health and peace and promote a more deliberate approach to delivering emergency health responses in violent conflict environments. In this context, this paper first discusses the global normative environment for emergency health responses in situations of violent conflict and proposals to strengthen the links between international health and peace activities, especially the GHPI. Second, it examines the concepts at the core of the GHPI initiative and considers their operationalization in violent conflict environments. Third, it summarizes the emergency health response to the 2018–2020 Ebola epidemic in eastern DRC, how it interacted disastrously with conflict dynamics, and the lessons learned from the experience. Finally, it highlights several risk areas that emergency health interventions working at the humanitarian-peace nexus in conflict will likely face and considers options for mitigating their impact. The paper concludes by offering the following recommendations, aimed at supporting the further development of the conceptual framework for the health and peace agenda and informing the operationalization of the GHPI and similar initiatives. WHO should develop the GHPI conceptual framework further, including by elaborating on when health actors should pursue peace-responsive programming and how they should coordinate with peace and security actors, as well as the relationship between the GHPI and political processes. WHO should design a strategy to operationalize the GHPI in violent conflict settings, including by developing tools, guidance, and training on conflict-sensitive analysis and programming; identifying the political skills required of those leading the implementation of such programming; and clarifying how to manage ethical dilemmas. The Executive Office of the Secretary-General should conduct a formal assessment of the Ebola emergency coordinator position during the 2018–2020 Ebola crisis. The UN Department for Safety and Security should review security risk assessment processes and safety and security measures and develop an inventory of safety and security measures that could be used in place of armed security. The UN Department of Peace Operations should review operational guidance for armed escorts and area security during site visits.
Topic:
Health, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, WHO, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Securing Civilisation Against Catastrophic Pandemics

Author:
Anjali Gopal, William Bradshaw, Vaishnav Sunil, and Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Pandemic security aims to safeguard the future of civilisation from exponentially spreading biological threats. Despite the world's failure to contain SARS-CoV-2, the existence of far more lethal and transmissible pathogens that afflict animals and growing access to increasingly powerful biotechnologies, no analyses of worst-case scenarios and potential defences have been published. Here we outline two distinct mechanisms by which pandemic pathogens transmissible between humans could cause societal collapse. In a "Wildfire" pandemic, the justifiable fear of a lethal and highly contagious respiratory agent released in multiple travel hubs leads to the breakdown of essential services. In a "Stealth" pandemic, a rapidly spreading virus with a long incubation period analogous to HIV infects most of humankind. We explain why current pandemic preparedness measures such as rapid vaccines and N95 masks will reliably fail against these threats and outline novel strategies and technologies capable of safeguarding civilisation.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

18. Governance for Resilience: How Can States Prepare for the Next Crisis?

Author:
Frances Brown
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The pandemic has presented policymakers with daunting, interlinked, and often unprecedented challenges. From health emergencies that also upend economies to trade disruptions that also pose new multilateral diplomatic dilemmas, the pandemic has generated challenges that seem exceptional in both scale and degree of interconnection. Although the coronavirus pandemic has generated a dizzying series of harsh social, political, and economic firsts, such dilemmas will not be the last. Trend lines around a series of domestic and multinational governance issues, including climate change, migration, rising geopolitical tensions, and citizen alienation from governing institutions, suggest that complex, interlinked crises will be features of the future. While national and multilateral policymakers should work to alleviate the drivers of such crises, they must also strive to prepare their countries to adapt and recover from complex shocks. In short, they must try to build resilience. The need for resilience will be especially acute in developing and fragile states. These countries will need to respond to compounding shocks across multiple domains, without the head start that their developed-world counterparts enjoy. Equally, donors and policymakers from the Global North must also elevate resilience and adaptation as key components of their approaches to supporting fragile states. This call to bolster countries’ resilience is hardly new. Even before the pandemic, the policy arena featured increasing calls for resilience; now, the chorus has become almost deafening. Recent seminal policy and analytic documents—including the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s flagship report,1 the UK’s Integrated Review,2 and the U.S. Interim National Security Strategy3—have underscored that states’ resilience and capacity for adaptation will be key to their future success in the geopolitical arena. In donors’ peacebuilding and development policies, high-level emphasis on resilience has also swelled over the past few years, including in official communications from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,4 the United States government,5 and the European Union.6 In some development practitioner and civil society circles, the need for resilience is so frequently invoked that it sometimes borders on cliché.7 The increasingly ubiquitous recommendation to “bolster resilience” is valuable for at least two related reasons. First, it offers a more specific strategic objective than conversations around “state fragility” writ large, which have often been too broad to generate concrete policy responses. Second, recent, failed international statebuilding projects have underscored that state fragility is not to be “fixed”—instead, it is to be managed and mitigated.8 The emphasis on resilience thus marks a helpful shift away from maximalist policy framing and toward a more attainable one. But concrete insights on how developing or fragile countries actually achieve resilience are less clear and less common. Given the broad consensus that state fragility is deeply linked to governance, for many policymakers, good governance is central. To be sure, many other factors beyond governance—including demographic, geographic, military, and economic ones—affect a state’s resilience. But a country’s governance and political institutions generally undergird all other dynamics in determining how effectively that state can bounce back from setbacks. What exactly does the concept of “good governance for resilience” entail in practice? This paper surveys the evidence. Below, it reviews the governance-related characteristics and capabilities that affect a country’s resilience. For the purposes of this paper, resilience at the national level can be understood as a country’s capacity to respond to, adapt to, and grow from stresses and shocks.9 Resilience focuses on bolstering the overall performance of a system in the face of unpredictable and often interconnected hazards, making it different from risk management, which relates to specific hazards.10 A country’s resilience depends on the internal characteristics that allow for states and their institutions to navigate a variety of disruptions.11 An overarching insight from the evidence is that governance for resilience is complex and often multidirectional. Several characteristics, such as decentralization, have an ambiguous effect on resilience: they enable a country to withstand some setbacks but leave it more vulnerable in other ways. Still other characteristics—including whether a country is a democracy or an authoritarian political system—do not appear have a clear-cut effect on resilience. In contrast, a few governance “super-factors”—such as control of corruption, societal trust, and high quality political leadership—are exceptionally powerful in enabling a country to augment its resilience through multiple pathways. Finally, this paper considers the broader implications of governance for resilience as a policy agenda. The framing of bolstering countries’ resilience is a valuable one, but it also raises several vexing trade-offs and dilemmas. In particular, it prompts the question of whose resilience, in specific, it refers to, since resilience of state institutions does not always mean resilience of all parts of the population. Looking ahead, the policy refrain of “building resilience” in fragile and developing states, appealing though it is, should be refined to encompass these thorny realities.
Topic:
Governance, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Starr Forum: Governing the Unpredictable: Disasters, the State, and Futures

Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The main emphasis is the State's (mostly US, but some international angles) role in disaster management and the discrepancies between perception, legal frameworks, expectations and aspirations, as well as what that means moving into an anthropocenic era of more frequent, perhaps constant, crisis.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Statehood
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Civil-Military Cooperation in Disaster and Emergency Response: Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author:
Myriame Bollen and Jori Pascal Kalkman
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Civilian authorities increasingly request military involvement in national emergencies and (inter)national disasters. This article aims to contribute to our understanding of these new civil-military interactions. The authors first reflect on three themes: (1) guidelines, principles, and goals of civil-military cooperation; (2) domain consensus through civil-military agreement on the allocation of areas of responsibility; and (3) militarization processes. The authors describe how these themes feature in traditional, expeditionary civil-military cooperation and in these new civil-military partnerships. Next, the authors consider the effects of the growing military role in emergencies and disasters on civil-military relations. The article concludes with some recommendations and a research agenda.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Civil-Military Relations, Disaster Management, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Global Focus