Search

Begin New Search Topic Credit Political Geography Global Focus

11. Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013

Author:
Edward J. Kane, Armen Hovakimian, and Luc Laeven
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data. The measure models the credit enhancement taxpayers provide to individual banks in the Merton tradition (1974) as a combination put option for the deep tail of bank losses and a knock-in stop-loss call on bank assets. This model expresses the value of taxpayer loss exposure from a string of defaults as the value of this combination option written on the portfolio of industry assets. The exercise price of the call is the face value of the debt of the entire sector. We conceive of an individual bank’s systemic risk as its contribution to the value of this sector- wide option on the financial safety net. To the extent that authorities are slow to see bank losses or reluctant to exercise the call, the government itself becomes a secondary source of systemic risk. We apply our model to quarterly data over the period 1974-2013. The model indicates that systemic risk reached unprecedented highs during the financial crisis years 2008- 2009, and that bank size, leverage, and asset risk are key drivers of systemic risk.
Topic:
Banks, Institutions, Risk, Credit, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Two Principles of Debt and national Income Dynamics in a Pure Credit Economy

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The paper puts forward two principles of national income dynamics in a pure credit economy. The first is the commonly known principle of Keynesian/Kaleckian economics according to which total output and employment in a capitalist economy is determined by the level of business investment. In turn that investment has to be financed, so that debt is inherent in such and economy. The second principle is a principle of the conservation of debt , which argues that, while new debt creates deposits in the economy, attempts to reduce debt generate deflationary processes that off-set debt reductions by creating ‘enforced’ debt in other parts of the economy. The analysis reinforces Minsky’s view that debt structures require corresponding investment to manage them, and that debt problems arise when such investment is insufficient.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Investment, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. A Note on Credit Allocation, Income Distribution, and the Circuit of Capital (pdf)

Author:
Paulo dos Santos
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This note considers the relationship between credit allocation and the aggregate, class distribution of income in the Circuit of Capital. Production and consumption credit inject means of purchase in different locations in the monetary circuits of capitalist reproduction. On the basis of comparative-dynamic analysis of the properties of steady-state evolutions, the note shows that production credit increases the wage share in total income, while consumption credit increases profit shares. These findings hold in general for any evolution in which sectoral revenue- elasticities of outlays measure less than unity. The note also motivates a new endogenous approach to the aggregate distribution of income, and offers new analytical tools facilitating work based on demand-constrained models of the Circuit of Capital.
Topic:
Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Theory, Credit, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Local Currency Sovereign Risk

Author:
Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Do governments default on debt denominated in their own currency? We introduce a new measure of sovereign credit risk, the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign currency denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and are less sensitive to global risk factors. Global risk aversion and liquidity factors can explain more time variation in these credit spread differentials than macroeconomic fundamentals.
Topic:
Debt, Sovereignty, Currency, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Fund Management and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Elias Bengtsson
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Fund managers play an important role in increasing efficiency and stability in financial markets. But research also indicates that fund management in certain circumstances may contribute to the buildup of systemic risk and severity of financial crises. The global financial crisis provided a number of new experiences on the contribution of fund managers to systemic risk. In this article, we focus on these lessons from the crisis. We distinguish between three sources of systemic risk in the financial system that may arise from fund management: insufficient credit risk transfer to fund managers; runs on funds that cause sudden reductions in funding to banks and other financial entities; and contagion through business ties between fund managers and their sponsors. Our discussion relates to the current intense debate on the role the so-called shadow banking system played in the global financial crisis. Several regulatory initiatives have been launched or suggested to reduce the systemic risk arising from non-bank financial entities, and we briefly discuss the likely impact of these on the sources of systemic risk outlined in the article.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Risk, Credit, Liquidity, and Shadow Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Corporate Liquidity and Financial Fragility: The Role of Investment, Debt and Interest

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The paper addresses the issue of how debt deflation may arise in a capitalist economy with a sophisticated credit system. It argues that the standard argument of debt deflationists, that debt-financed investment causes a build-up of unsustainable investment, fails to recognise that debt is back by credit. A corollary of this is that the rate of interest is not a factor in investment decisions. Financial fragility is caused by heterogeneity of balance sheets, debt financed operations in financial markets and insufficient debt-financed investment, rather than too much such investment.
Topic:
Debt, Markets, Investment, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Neologism as Theoretical Innovation in Economics: The case of 'Financialisation

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The term „financialisation‟ is a recognition that finance has come to play a key role on the modern capitalist economy. But users of the term do not agree on its meaning and recognition of the growing scale of finance has not brought about an increased understanding of financial processes. The paper examines the reasons for increased turnover in financial markets. The main themes in the literature on financialisation are examined and shown to lack a coherent account of financial processes that goes beyond the evidence of financial activity.
Topic:
Debt, Finance, Credit, and Financialisation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns Around the World

Author:
Ricardo Correa, Kuan-Hui Lee, Horacio Sapriza, and Gustavo Suarez
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better-positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Governance, Risk, Credit, Bonds, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Financial Frictions, Trade Credit, and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly, Horacio Sapriza, and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of the credit crunch in the severe contraction of economic activity during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, using firm-level data from six emerging Asian economies. After controlling for the effect of falling demand, we find that sales declined by less for firms with better pre-crisis financial conditions. Amid the decline in external financing opportunities, some firms relied more on trade credit from suppliers during the crisis, which allowed them to post relatively better sales. Export-intensive firms resorted less to trade credit as an alternative source of finance, which contributed to their larger declines in sales.
Topic:
Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Trade, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets

Author:
Charles Engel and John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Survey data show that the expected growth rates of consumption across countries vary widely and are not highly correlated. This data contradicts the simplest of open-economy models in which there is a freely traded non- state-contingent bond and purchasing power parity holds. We explore two alternative explanations for the finding: that households in each country in effect face different ex ante real interest rates or that there are significant credit constraints, so that expected consumption growth rates are driven largely by expected income growth. The empirical evidence strongly supports the latter hypothesis. These findings challenge the modeling of consumption that is at the heart of many, if not most, macroeconomic models.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Interest Rates, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus