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121. The Role of Civilians and Civil Society in Preventing Mass Atrocities

Author:
Zachariah Mampilly, Daniel Solomon, Anushani Alagarajah, Dharsha Jegatheeswaran, Nyathon H. Mai, and Congo Research Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This paper synthesizes the results of a one-year, multicountry exploration of the role that civilians play in preventing and mitigating the trajectory of mass atrocity episodes. It is the culmination of a unique collaboration between the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and three partner organizations: Congo Research Group, the Adayaalam Centre for Policy Research, and the Sudd Institute. In consultation with the Simon-Skjodt Center, each country team conducted a subnational comparative study of civilian involvement in mass atrocity episodes. This paper brings together the findings from each country study to offer a general framework for understanding civilian agency and assesses how well existing theories of civilian action can account for the outcomes across cases. In addition, it addresses the conceptual and methodological challenges of studying civilian agency and the role of civil society cross-nationally. The study calls for a reconceptualization of civil society that moves away from traditional concepts in favor of foregrounding the political and economic contexts that civilians navigate during a conflict and its aftermath.
Topic:
Civil Society, Conflict, Civilians, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

122. Beginning to Resolve Displacement

Author:
David Arnold, Lorenza Rossi, Grace Benton, and Nina Stuurman
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Abstract:
Addressing the issues of displaced persons starts not by envisioning an ending point for those no longer living in their homes, but instead by understanding the mobile nature of displacement and empowering those affected.
Topic:
Refugees, Displacement, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

123. ROC(K) Solid Preparedness: Resistance Operations Concept in the Shadow of Russia

Author:
Otto Fiala and Ulrica Pettersson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Resistance is a form of warfare. It can be planned. The Resistance Operations Concept is simply a resistance primer. It contains guidance and advice toward establishing a nationally authorized resistance capability. It advises the establishment of a pre-crisis organization for nations under greater threat, for the purpose of having a unified resistance effort against an occupier, and renders specific organizational guidance.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

124. No Such Thing as a Perfect Partner: The Challenges of “By, With, and Through”

Author:
Emily Knowles
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Taking a peacebuilding approach to working with local militaries and armed groups means using assistance to fragmented security sectors to increase cooperation between various formal and informal elites in a weak state. This approach places less emphasis on developing conventional military power and more emphasis on facilitating and improving relations between the different factions within the security sector and between the security sector and the civilian population. If international providers help local partners perform better at military tasks without ensuring that the forces have local legitimacy and strong accountability, progress is likely to be fleeting and could actually exacerbate civilian harm and the underlying drivers of violent conflict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
Political Geography:
Global Focus

125. Towards a structural understanding of powerbrokers in weak states: From militias to alliances

Author:
Sascha Bruchmann
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article aims to contribute to a theoretical understanding and discussion of conflict in weak states. More granular than one at the level of systemic phenomena, this analysis is focused on the actors, and the political structure in weak states. The article aims to improve on efforts to accurately describe these conflicts. After a theoretical introduction, the theorem on powerbroker systems will be applied on the case studies of Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali. Building on this, the contours of the political system in each case will be highlighted by looking at the very origins of socio-political life. The working hypothesis is that powerbrokers, built on self-governing communities, ally and bandwagon according to Balance of Threat (BoT). This working hypothesis will be tested by examining a derived hypotheses per case study and identifying a) self-rule communities, b) the political-military nexus of powerbrokers within each system, and c) the behaviour of the related BoT alliance. Afghan, Lebanese and Malian powerbrokers all confirm the hypotheses. The powerbrokers originate in a context of self-governing communities trying to maintain their internal autonomy vis-a-vis a more centralised state and world system. During conflict, the communities band together against a perceived external threat, building neo-feudal political-military bodies. Pooling military resources under skilled leadership and privileged access to outside sponsors sparks the birth of a post-conflict politicalmilitary elite. It is beneficial to maintain powerbrokers as they are better suited to distribute resources through patronage at scale. Powerbroker alliances in weak states can be well explained by a theoretical approach based on balance of threat and more research is needed
Topic:
Alliance, Conflict, Militias, Political System, and Powerbrokers
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Mali, and Global Focus

126. Resilience and Agility: Managing and Mitigating Evolving Threats in a Hyperconnected World

Author:
Hasssan Abul-Enein
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Over the years a wide range of different evolving threats have been drastic in their impact and magnitude. This impact is likely to be amplified in the future, especially as global risks such as deglobalisation, fractured social contracts, digital divides and technological gaps increase.39 Also, the rollout of stimulus packages and soaring debt that is estimated to top US$10 trillion by the end of 2020 is likely to make the global economic landscape more fragile.40 The COVID-19 outbreak has perhaps resulted in the single largest socio- economic experiment in the history of humankind. As an evolving threat, what started as a health pandemic in China has snowballed, causing disruptions around the globe and impacting every single industry and individual. Countless lessons are being extrapolated from the outbreak. At the core of these lessons is the importance of resilience and agility in any response to an evolving threat. If governments, organisations, businesses, and society are to manage and mitigate threats of this kind that may occur in the future, there is a need to consolidate and further invest in the four pillars highlighted in this study: strategic management and foresight; human capital, diversity and leadership; collaboration and partnerships; and technology and innovation. Together, these pillars make for organisational resilience and agility. This in turn helps organisations to overcome ambiguity and uncertainty by embedding adaptability and flexibility across their structures. This will allow organisations and vested stakeholders to better map out ecosystem changes that threaten their interests and growth. It will also allow them to respond proactively, timeously and effectively by implementing whole- of-enterprise risk management functions and developing solid decision- making structures and frameworks. Investments in these pillars will also provide opportunities for shared value creation and avoid duplication and wastage. This will help drive growth and mitigate the impact of evolving threats by generating innovative solutions faster and more dynamically, and will accelerate the focus on solving problems rather than fighting them. It will also help to develop human capital, ensure accessibility to a variety of solutions to a wide range of problems, and increase integration, which in turn will create safety buffers and support shock containment.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

127. Modern Conflict and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Aaron Shull, Daniel Araya, Samantha Bradshaw, Amandeep Singh Gill, Michael Horowitz, Meg King, Robert Mazzolin, Maya Medeiros, Rodrigo Nieto-Gomez, and Liis Vihul
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Autonomous systems are revolutionizing our lives, but they present clear international security concerns. Despite the risks, emerging technologies are increasingly applied as tools for cybersecurity and, in some cases, cyberwarfare. In this essay series, first published online, experts explore digital threats to democracy and security, and the geopolitical tensions they create.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Conflict, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

128. Peace Forged by Warfare: The Universal Declaration of Human Rights 70 Years After

Author:
Thiago Rodrigues, Tadeu Maciel, and Joao Paulo Duarte
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) in December 2018 created a need to problematise its precepts and their political consequences in contempo- rary times. Drawing on Michel Foucault’s genealogical approach to power, this article analyses the normative inscription of the UDHR as the emergence of a juridical-political device that produces new modulations of biopolitics. As such, it is not based on peace, as is commonly argued, but on the permanent reinscription of war, sometimes in dimensions that go beyond the boundaries of sovereignty.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, War, Intellectual History, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

129. Priorities for the UN's Children and Armed Conflict Agenda, 2020

Author:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Priorities for the UN's Children and Armed Conflict Agenda, 2020 is the final report from LISD's annual workshop co-organized with the NGO Watchlist on Children and Armed, and held on January 29, 2020. The report reflects the discussions from three closed working sessions dedicated to (1) ongoing challenges and concerns impacting the implementation of the CAAC agenda, (2) emerging concerns and trends for the CAAC agenda, (3) the role of Member States in advancing the CAAC agenda through the Security Council Working Group and Group of Friends. A final recommendations section reflects findings from the workshop's wrap-up session which summarized key discussion points and recommendations of the working sessions.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Children, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

130. A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Author:
Ali Fisunoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The spread of intrastate war has gained increasing prominence, especially in the recent past. This paper studies the spread of intrastate war as a result of another intrastate war in a neighboring country using a system dynamics modeling approach. The model employed is a modification of the SIR, a spread of disease model taken from epidemiology. Revising the SIR model with relevant political and economic variables, the model seeks to explain the mechanism through which an intrastate conflict is spread from an "infected" country to a "susceptible" country. Although diffusion and contagion of civil wars have been widely examined in the past, a dynamic modeling approach has not been adequately used in this area. Consistent with the existing literature, the results of the model suggest that refugees are a means to carry the conflict disease from the initial country by disturbing economic and social dynamics of the host whereas political capacity acts as the immune system, reducing the likelihood of conflict contagion. The results of the simulations, obtained using theoretical parameters, are mainly consistent with the expectations.
Topic:
War, Refugees, Conflict, and State
Political Geography:
Global Focus