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111. 65 Years After the Russell-Einstein Manifesto: Where Are We Now?

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
On July 9, 1955, two of the most eminent intellectuals of the 20th century, Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein, issued an appeal to humanity, urging that the immense peril associated with nuclear weapons be recognized by governments and publics alike. The Russell-Einstein Manifesto warned that nuclear weapons pose a threat to the survival of the human species and called for major efforts to address and contain nuclear dangers. One of the consequences of the Manifesto was the holding of the first Pugwash conference in 1957. The origins and goals of Pugwash are contained in the Russell-Einstein Manifesto: to highlight the dangers of nuclear weapons, to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons, and to promote peaceful resolution of conflicts. Today, July 9, 2020, is the 65th anniversary of the Russell-Einstein Manifesto. We ask, how is the situation now, 65 years later?
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

112. Pugwash Document on Cyber Security and Warfare

Author:
Gian Piero Siroli, Gotz Neuneck, and Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Since its foundation, the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs (Pugwash) has continued to bring together, from around the world, influential scientists, scholars, experts and public figures concerned with reducing the dangers of armed conflict, especially regarding nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, and with understanding the new threats related to new technologies, while seeking cooperative solutions. Pugwash held three workshops on the topic of cyber security and warfare between December 2018 and January 2020, gathering a total of about 60 experts and practitioners from Europe, North and South America, and Asia, focusing on a broad set of specific themes. The first workshop (Geneva, Switzerland, December 2018, hosted by the GCSP) discussed battlefield digitalization and offensive cyber capabilities, weapon-system vulnerabilities, and the implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The second workshop (Bariloche, Argentina, October 2019, supported by INVAP, Global Security Foundation and KPMG) focused on “Cybersecurity in Latin America”. The third workshop (Geneva, Switzerland, January 2020, sponsored by the Mission of Brazil to the UN Office in Geneva) focused on “Cyber Security and Warfare,” and included discussions on international cooperation, the multi-stakeholder approach, and implications of AI and autonomous weapons systems. Reports are available on the Pugwash website1. The participants, who came from many countries, carried out an analysis and reflection on various aspects of the cyber ecosystem in the context of international stability and security, and reviewed current initiatives included within the international agenda. Better definitions, a common nomenclature, and reliable communication between responsible stakeholders—based on the principles of International Humanitarian Law and the experiences of arms control for risk reduction, self-restraint and crisis management--might be useful or necessary. Sound technical analysis and forensics are a precondition to understanding the different threats and vulnerabilities of the cyber-sphere. Detailed proposals for discussion and implementation were elaborated during the workshops.
Topic:
Security, War, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

113. Global Peace Index 2020: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 14th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2020 GPI, this year’s report includes an analysis of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on peace, including Positive Peace: the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It examines how the impact of the pandemic, and in particular its economic consequences will increase the risk of severe deteriorations in Positive Peace over the next few years, and also examines which countries are best placed to recover from the shock.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

114. The Effect of War on Economic Growth

Author:
Clifford F. Thies and Christopher F. Baum
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was thought that major wars had become obsolete (Mueller 1989) and perhaps regional conflicts might be brought under control (Cederman, Gleditsch, and Wucherpfennig 2017). But, while the level of violence declined, the number of wars in the world appears to have reached a new steady state. A world that was once organized by East-West rivalry is now characterized by ethno-religious conflicts, as well as by spontaneously arising transnational terrorist organizations and criminal gangs. For various reasons, economists have become interested in investigating the causes and effects of war and other armed conflict (e.g., Coyne and Mathers 2011). This article uses a consistent measurement of these forms of violence across space and time to conduct a rigorous quantitative analysis of the effect of war on economic growth.
Topic:
Cold War, War, History, Economic Growth, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

115. The Use of Cyberspace in the Context of Hybrid Warfare. Means, Challenges and Trends

Author:
Cholpon Abdyraeva
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This paper aims to introduce the state of art on hybrid warfare and seeks to address the conceptual confusion regarding an ever-expanding concept of hybrid warfare. By doing so, this paper simultaneously attempts to assess the growing significance of cyber and information domains within the hybrid warfare, which can be clearly illustrated by the example of the Russian hybrid warfare strategy. The Russian approach to hybrid warfare has considerably broadened the scope of hybrid warfare and changed the focus of debates from military to non-military components of hybrid warfare. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is: 1) to produce a deeper insight into hybrid warfare, including related trends, and 2) to assess the role and impact of cyber and information warfare with a particular focus on Russia. This paper can serve as an introduction that guides policy makers with expert opinions, and as such, intends to motivate further investigation in this field.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, Conflict, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

116. Shock Mobility: Long term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and lock-down

Author:
Nina Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Shock mobilities are sudden human movements made in response to acute disruptions, such as the present COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike planned migration, shock mobility encompasses various degrees of forced migration or can be categorized as reactive migration caused by a crisis situation. Forced migration often starts with shock mobility, but shock mobility does not always lead to protracted forced migration. FUTURE IMPLICATIONS ■ Shock mobilities may affect broader socioeconomic relations in the future. Five manifestations of shock mobilities as ‘link moments’ provide clues as to how. ■ How shock mobilities will be received and internalized in the years ahead is uncertain. They could yield significant impacts on state-citizen relations, as well as on relations between different populations. ■ The ‘shocks’ give us a glimpse into the world we are entering. Tomorrow’s normality will grow out of today’s disruption. Therefore, a better understanding of ongoing shock mobilities will help us analyse potential problems for decades to come.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Fragile States, Conflict, Risk, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

117. In Search of a Systematic Approach to Hybrid Threats

Author:
Gordan Akrap
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Hybrid threats and hybrid conflicts and wars are one of those terms that have suddenly entered in public knowledge, raising many concerns. This is not surprising because there is no common and generally accepted definition of hybrid threats by which these processes are defined. The emergence of this term in the the complexity of this issue. Specifically, hybrid threats are not a new phenomenon to theorists of conflicts and wars. What makes hybrid warfare different from previous wars is the change in the importance and intensity of the individual components of the conflict, such as information or influence warfare component. In fact, until regional media space was, in the beginning, connected with journalist’s perception that intention of the state is to impose censorship of writing and publishing. Over time, fear in the media receded and gave way to understanding the end of the 20th century, information and media operations, that could be called influence or cognitive operations, were in the function of military operations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

118. Naturaleza de los conflictos e inteligencia artificial: ¿ruptura de una continuidad? (Nature of Conflicts and Artificial Intelligence: A Continuity Break?)

Author:
Jules Palayer
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Los ejércitos son permeables a cambios que ocurren en las sociedades en las que se insertan, de este modo, todo lo revolucionario que pueda ser la inteligencia artificial (IA) para las sociedades podrá serlo para los militares. Debido a la profundidad de los cambios en ciernes, cabe preguntarse, ¿de qué manera cambiará la naturaleza de los conflictos futuros? El objetivo del presente documento es responder a esta incógnita enmarcando los efectos de la IA en uno de sus tres posibles impactos en la naturaleza del conflicto: el impacto mínimo, el evolucionario y el revolucionario. Para determinar cuál de ellos se ajusta más a la realidad examinaremos la introducción de la IA en el mundo militar como una revolución en los asuntos militares (RMA) cuyo telón de fondo es la revolución socio militar (RSM) post-moderna. Veremos cuestiones tecnológicas, doctrinales y organizativas entorno a la IA para arrojar luz sobre su impacto en la naturaleza del conflicto futuro.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

119. Seeking Accountability and Preventing Reoccurrence: Addressing Conflict-Related Sexual Slavery through the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda

Author:
Elenore Veillet-Chowdhurry
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
The Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), with support from the Korean International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), coordinated a global research to analyze historical and contemporary incidences of sexual slavery, from World War Two to the present geopolitical context. The overall goal of the research is to promote synergies in the implementation of the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Agenda, international humanitarian and human rights laws, and policies to prevent and counter violent extremism to improve the prevention of, protection from, accountability mechanisms for, and relief and recovery for survivors of sexual slavery. To ensure that this research reflects the voices of survivors of sexual slavery and women’s civil society on the ground in conflict-affected communities, the research team produced three case studies: one on sexual slavery during World War Two in Asia and the Pacific, and two on more recent incidences of sexual slavery in Uganda and Iraq respectively. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions with survivors of conflict-related sexual slavery, women’s rights activists, local and national government officials, human rights lawyers, and grassroots peacebuilders in Korea, Uganda, and Iraq, along with global policymakers were conducted. This advocacy brief summarizes the key findings and recommendations of the global research and case studies. The full-length global research and case studies will also be made available. GNWP hopes that this research will inform and strengthen the global response to conflict-related sexual slavery and survivor-centered implementation of the WPS Agenda. Critically, this research will serve as a key advocacy tool for victims and survivors of sexual slavery and their families, and civil society activists.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Sex Trafficking, Slavery, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

120. The ICRC’s Changing Role in International Humanitarianism

Author:
Peter Maurer, David Del Terzo, and Caroline Allen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Peter Maurer is the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). This interview was conducted at the beginning of March, before the COVID-19 outbreak had reached pandemic levels. Since that time, the ICRC has been adapt- ing its operations to respond to the disease’s impacts in conflict-affected countries. President Maurer wrote about his concerns for vulnerable populations in an opinion column in The Guardian, published 27 March 2020.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, and ICRC
Political Geography:
Global Focus