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281. Net-Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions Today for 2030 and Beyond

Author:
Julio Friedmann, Alex Zapantis, Brad Page, Chris Consoli, Zhiyuan Fan, Ian Havercroft, Harry Liu, Emeka Richard Ochu, Nabeela Raji, Dominic Rassool, Hadia Sheerazi, and Alex Townsend
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The case for rapid and profound decarbonization has never been more obvious or more urgent, and immediate action must match growing global ambition and need. An important new component of this discussion is the necessity of achieving net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions for any climate stabilization target. Until net-zero emissions are achieved, greenhouse gas will accumulate in the atmosphere and oceans, and concentrations will grow, even with deep and profound emissions reduction, mitigation, and adaptation measures. This places a severe constraint on human enterprise: any carbon removed from the earth must be returned to the earth.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

282. Nowhere to Hide: Implications for Policy, Industry, and Finance of Satellite-Based Methane Detection

Author:
Jonathan Elkind, Erin Blanton, Robert Kleinberg, and Anton Leemhuis
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
In August 2020, the Trump Administration finalized plans to roll back regulations on oil and gas industry emissions of methane from new and modified infrastructure. In the same month, the European Commission gathered stakeholder comments as part of its process to introduce the first EU-wide methane regulations. Though contradictory in direction, these regulatory processes on opposite sides of the Atlantic highlighted a critical climate protection challenge: How can the oil and gas industry—and the regulators who oversee it—best detect and address methane emissions to protect the environment and the climate in particular? The answer to this question will drive planning and operational approaches in the oil and gas industry. It could also significantly affect the future role of natural gas. Five years ago, many energy analysts expected natural gas to serve as a bridge fuel that would result in only half as much climate warming as coal, and fewer local air pollutants. Among other roles, gas was seen as a natural complement for variable wind or solar power—a way to provide firm, dispatchable, low-emissions power. Now that it is apparent that our understanding of methane emissions is poor, the climate implications of gas are far less clear. This poor grasp of methane emissions appears likely to become a thing of the past, however. In roughly the next five years, new satellite detection systems—used in concert with existing systems, aerial monitoring platforms, and ground-based monitors—can increase markedly the transparency surrounding methane leakage. The new wave of satellite monitoring capability has major implications for industry and governments. Our world is rapidly becoming a place in which methane emissions will have nowhere to hide. This commentary, co-authored by the Center on Global Energy Policy and TNO, focuses on detection and response to oil- and gas-related methane emissions, which have been the subject of increasing focus on the part of industry and the public policy community. It addresses the significance of methane emissions for the climate, and the challenges of detecting and accurately quantifying methane emissions. It then explores the evolving capabilities of satellite-based methane detection and monitoring systems, which are expected to advance rapidly in the coming years, and which can be especially powerful when used in concert with aerial and ground-based monitoring systems. It concludes with a discussion of the implications of the changing satellite detection landscape for the oil and gas industry, the finance and investment community, and the realm of public policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Gas, Finance, and Methane
Political Geography:
Global Focus

283. Expanding the Reach of a Carbon Tax: Emissions Impacts of Pricing Combined with Additional Climate Actions

Author:
John Larsen
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Putting a price on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can help governments reduce them rapidly and in a cost-effective manner. While 10 carbon tax bills have been proposed in the 116th US Congress, carbon prices alone are not enough to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury. Additional policies are needed to complement an economy-wide carbon tax and further cut CO2 from the US energy system. This study aims to provide a better understanding of such policy combinations. It projects the energy CO2 emissions impacts of two carbon taxes, starting in 2021, that span the rates in the carbon tax bills in Congress. The “low” tax scenario starts at $30 per ton in 2021 and rises at 5 percent plus inflation per year, reaching $44 by 2030, while the “high” carbon tax starts at $15 per ton and rises $15 per year, reaching $150 by 2030. The paper then describes the barriers inhibiting emissions reductions beyond those achieved by the carbon taxes alone for each major sector: electricity, transportation, buildings, and industry. Finally, it explores the energy system changes needed to overcome those barriers and the policy interventions that could deliver those changes. For certain key energy system changes, it provides quantitative estimates of emissions reductions incremental to the two carbon taxes. This paper is part of a joint effort by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and Rhodium Group to help policy makers and other stakeholders understand the important decisions associated with the design of carbon pricing policies and the implications of these decisions. The paper finds the emissions impacts of the low and high carbon taxes alone lead to economy-wide energy CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 33 percent and 41 percent, respectively, below 2005 levels. A carbon tax combined with policy actions that support comprehensive, ambitious energy system changes could lead to emissions reductions in the range of 40 to 45 percent, arguably consistent with US midcentury deep decarbonization goals for the energy system. In the 2020s, the bulk of these emissions reductions are likely to occur in the power sector, even under a broad decarbonization strategy, due to the significant barriers to large near-term emissions reductions in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

284. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action: Workshop Report

Author:
Philippe Benoit and Alex Clark
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
On February 27, 2020, the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) convened a workshop at the university’s Faculty House in New York City. The workshop brought together a combination of practitioners, researchers, executives, and public sector officials to discuss the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in realizing collective climate action goals. Under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion focused around sectors (power generation, oil and gas) and relationships (government-SOE relations, and the role of public financial institutions), before concluding with a roundtable discussion drawing together the day’s proceedings and outlining the next steps. The following is a summary of that workshop.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

285. Carbon Consumption Patterns of Emerging Middle Classes

Author:
Babette Never, Jose Ramon Albert, Hanna Fuhrmann, Sebastian Gsell, Miguel Jaramillo, Sascha Kuhn, and Bernardin Senadza
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middleclass quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern–action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Class, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

286. New Approaches to Climate Change and Migration: Building the Adaptive Capacity of Mobile Populations

Author:
Carol Farbotko
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
It is often assumed that there is a direct link between climate change and human mobility, and that mobility is evidence of a failure to adapt to changing conditions. The reality is much more complex. Worsening climate conditions can lead to a variety of mobility outcomes: some individuals or communities may be trapped in place, while others may choose to stay and develop local adaptation strategies; some may choose to move to mitigate risks or diversify household incomes, while others may be forced to leave. And all of this is occurring against a backdrop of globalization and urbanization, in which mobility and translocal networks are already significant parts of many people’s lives. This report examines the concept of “adaptive capacity” and how it can be useful in understand the relationship between climate change and migration, as well as the ways mobility can be a strategic choice—or a source of greater vulnerability. Drawing on examples from the Pacific Islands, Asia, and other regions, the report analyzes the limitations of existing responses to climate change and outlines an alternative, adaptation pathways model that is flexible and emphasizes the involvement of affected communities. Adopting an adaptation pathways approach, the author writes, could help avoid a common pitfall of climate change adaptation measures: that they are often top down and do not integrate local knowledge, cultures, and other important contextual factors. Failure to consult local communities can lead measures to backfire or create greater vulnerabilities elsewhere, while a more participatory, flexible approach can bring to light important local insights and yield stronger solutions that are able to respond to future developments.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

287. How Will International Migration Policy and Sustainable Development Affect Future Climate-Related Migration?

Author:
Robert McLeman
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Extreme-weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and intense heat, are shaping migration and displacement in countries around the world, and climate change is likely to make events like these more intense and more frequent. The effects of such conditions vary across regions and can spark a range of migration outcomes—both increases and decrease in movement along existing routes, the creation of new routes, and growth in the number of people who may want or need to move but who are unable to do so. But while the potential of climate change to affect human mobility is widely recognized, estimating future climate-related migration and displacement is made difficult by uncertainty surrounding the future of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and of sustainable development and migration policies. This Transatlantic Council on Migration report describes the findings of a first-of-its-kind exercise to explore how future climatic conditions under standardized greenhouse gas concentration scenarios may affect climate-related drivers of migration and displacement, and how international development and migration policies may mediate (or exacerbate) migration outcomes. It considers how this may play out in two periods (2020–50 and 2050–2100), and in top source regions for international migration: East and Southeast Asia, South and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Migration, Law, Refugees, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

288. The Divergent Trajectories of the Global Migration and Refugee Compacts: Implementation amid Crisis

Author:
Lena Kainz, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The world has changed dramatically since the international community came together in December 2018 to adopt the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. Two years on, national governments and UN agencies are working to implement the compacts in an environment of new and intensifying challenges, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasingly severe impacts of climate change. Given the significant political energy invested in the compacts, there is immense pressure to turn the commitments made on paper into reality, challenges or not. And while the migration landscape continues to change, the movement of people across borders remains at the heart of many pressing issues, including public health, economic recovery, and social inequality. This policy brief examines how implementation of the two compacts has played out thus far, highlighting areas in which the pacts have lived up to or fallen short of expectations. It also identifies sticking points and opportunities at the intersection of the compacts that merit greater attention. To do so, the brief draws on interviews with government officials and UN agency representatives in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, as well as an in-depth review of countries’ implementation plans and progress updates.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Immigrants, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

289. In Defense of both Climate and Justice: The Climate Justice Movement

Author:
Baran Alp Uncu
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Today, we are living in a world that is on average about 1 degree warmer than the pre-industrial period. If we do not limit this human-caused temperature rise to around 1.5 degrees until the end of the century, various disasters we are already experiencing such as the rise in sea levels, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, extreme weather events, floods and inundations, drought and water scarcity will increase in intensity and scope and furthermore assume an irreversible condition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Social Movement, Crisis Management, Urban, Justice, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

290. Green Growth, Just Transition and Decent Works in the Context of Sustainable Development and Combating Climate Change

Author:
Cigdem Tugac
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternative Politics
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:
Traditional economic growth models damage natural resources to which humanity depends, causing important environmental, social and economic problems, especially climate change. Today, it is understood by countries that a new growth approach should be applied in order to ensure the sustainable use of scarce natural resources, combatting negative effects of climate change and reduce poverty while realizing economic development. The view that environmentally friendly investments aren’t cost effective is changing and countries want to take advantage of the opportunities offered by green growth. However, this process also requires a just transition. The aim of this study is to evaluate green growth, just transition and decent work concepts in the context of sustainable development and combatting climate change. In the study, it is concluded that if green growth and just transition processes are well managed, they provide significant opportunities for realizing UN-SDGs, combatting climate change and the creation of decent works.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus