Number of results to display per page
Search Results
232. Geopolitics of the World’s Forests: Strategies for Tackling Deforestation
- Author:
- Alain Karsenty
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Deforestation continues at a worrying pace worldwide, except in temperate and boreal countries. It is caused by the race for land, underpinned by population growth and rising global demand for “deforestation-prone” products. Moreover, with climate change, mega-fires are now posing unprecedented threats to forests. China has a major influence on the evolution of the world’s forests through its trade and investment in infrastructures for the Belt and Road Initiative. The country has stopped the exploitation of its natural forests, but it is using imports to meet its huge timber needs, while its demand for agricultural products carrying risks of deforestation is also growing, such as soybeans and palm oil. In Africa and Southeast Asia, large European forestry firms are in retreat, given the expansion of Asian firms (from Malaysia, China, and Vietnam), and agribusiness firms are gaining influence everywhere. Major reforestation operations are, at best, of limited effectiveness when they are not accompanied by the recognition of land rights, and when they lead to monoculture plantations with fast-growing tree species. By contrast, independent certifications appear to be essential tools for forest management and ensuring zero-deforestation production. Finally, the United Nations’ REDD+ mechanism pays countries that reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, or that increase their carbon stocks through plantations. Yet, REDD+ is criticized because it relies on reference scenarios: the anticipated emissions paths presented by the countries themselves. Moreover, it always faces the problem of the “non-permanence” of carbon storage in forests or plantations that may burn or simply die. At the same time, companies’ growing concerns to offset some of their emissions has generated strong demand for carbon credits from forest projects. Hundreds of “REDD+ projects” have emerged, relying on specific certifications to support the issuance of carbon credits in “voluntary markets.” This entails risks of double-counting emission reductions at the national level. Moreover, the uncertain additionality and the risks of “leakage” (shifting deforestation pressures elsewhere) cast doubt on the environmental integrity of these private initiatives. Finally, the success of “REDD+ projects” remains conditional on taking into account the problems of land security of rural inhabitants, a key factor in reforestation, and in their access to land. While institutionalized consensuses continue to pile up, there is in fact an urgent need to reconsider existing instruments, taking into account systemic and political economy questions which are too often ignored. The 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) is scheduled to take place in China in October 2021, and needs to participate in the necessary leap forward on global forest governance: The principle of “results-based payment” (RBP) should be complemented by broad support for the investments needed to “produce” these results. It should only retain the coherence of public policies that have real potential impacts on forests as an essential criterion for assessing results. The demand for products linked to deforestation must be strictly controlled. Governments should review trade agreements with countries that encourage land-forest conversion and include measures to tackle deforestation that are legally binding. Imports of products involved in illegal deforestation must be banned, and tariffs must favor products certified as involving zero deforestation. Developing countries should be helped to implement incentive-based environmental taxation to support agricultural production based on zero-deforestation and sustainable forests. Fiscally neutral bonus-malus systems could favor traced and certified production and penalize production whose origin is uncertain and presumably unsustainable. A common agenda for food security, tackling deforestation and restoring degraded natural ecosystems needs to be built with developing countries. Ecological intensification through peasant-farmer agroecology, crop-livestock associations and agroforestry should become priorities. Necessary investments could be channeled through programs of payments for ecosystem services (PES). Finally, the forest concession regimes must evolve to include the recognition of overlapping rights, the commercial management of new resources and the sharing of profits.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
233. Climate policy is macroeconomic policy, and the implications will be significant
- Author:
- Jean Pisani-Ferry
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- For all the long-term benefits of urgently addressing climate change, economic policymakers must plan for a challenging transition to carbon neutrality. Pretending that the costs will be trivial is dangerous. Estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations indicate that emergency action is indispensable to limit catastrophic climate disruption. Because of the magnitude of the efforts involved and the pace of the transformation implied, the accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy is bound to have serious, immediate economic implications, warns Pisani-Ferry. Some equipment will lose economic value. Some plants will have to close. Employees will have to be reallocated to other occupations. Investment will have to increase, to repair or rebuild infrastructure and the capital stock. He argues that so far policymakers have not addressed these implications in a systematic manner. It is high time policymakers realize that climate policy is also macroeconomic policy and design transition strategies now.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Macroeconomics, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
234. Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff, Simone Tagliapietra, and Klaas Lenaerts
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Higher levels of economic activity tend to go hand-in-hand with additional energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and hence to climate forcing. This paper explores whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible or whether the world economy needs to grow less to be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to reach net zero in 2050. The literature provides profoundly different answers to this question, with scholars positioning along a spectrum that extends from the most optimist version of ‘green growth’ theories to sceptical ‘degrowth’ theories. While globally, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are declining, the decoupling rate from 1995 to 2018 was only -1.8 percent annually. To achieve net zero by 2050, the rate would have to accelerate to -8.7 percent, assuming population and GDP growth projections as given, or by a factor of almost five. To keep GDP growth and population at their projections and thus reject the proposition of de-growth, decoupling would have to accelerate massively. Two avenues are crucial: reducing the energy intensity of production and/or the emissions intensity of energy. The huge fall in the price of renewable energy provides hope that decoupling can accelerate. Decoupling rates have accelerated in the last decade and decoupling is substantially faster in the European Union. In the EU, we estimate that decoupling only has to accelerate by a factor of 2.5. We do not think degrowth propositions advanced in the literature will be pursued and therefore focus on the main challenges that must be tackled to achieve decoupling. Unprecedented efforts are required to achieve green growth. But hoping for humanity to sacrifice growth appears unrealistic.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
235. The Economic Geography of Global Warming
- Author:
- José‐Luis Cruz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The world is getting warmer due to carbon emissions generated by the economic activity of humans. Global carbon emissions will affect temperatures everywhere over long periods of time and in geographically different ways. What will be the impact of carbon emissions, and the implied changes in temperatures, on the world economy and on the economies of particular regions? How will individuals react to these changes, and how are these reactions impacted by their ability to migrate, trade, or invest and develop alternative centers of economic activity? What are the best policies to combat global warming, and what are the implications of these policies for different regions across the world? We propose and quantify a novel model to address these questions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Economic Policy, Innovation, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
236. China, climate politics and COP26
- Author:
- Sam Geall
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- There is no credible emissions pathway towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C without significant movements from China over the next decade to accelerate its energy transition and decarbonisation. China aims to become carbon-neutral by 2060. Yet Beijing is hedging in the near term, in part due to an uncertain global macro and geopolitical environment, and in part due to domestic threats of social instability and economic stagnation. China’s negotiating position at COP26 in Glasgow stands to benefit from support from many developing countries — unless the United States and other rich countries make an effective alternative appeal to the Global South with respect to climate finance, mitigation and adaptation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- China, Global Focus, and United States of America
237. Future of Construction
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Future of Construction gives forecasts for global construction to 2030 as well as perspectives on climate related challenges for the construction industry. Global construction output in 2020 was US$10.7 trillion (in 2017 prices and exchange rates) and we expect this to grow by 42% or US$4.5 trillion between 2020 and 2030 to reach US$15.2 trillion. The Global Construction industry is set to be a global engine for economic growth and recovery from COVID. Shorter term, global construction output is expected to reach US$13.3 trillion by 2025 – adding US$2.6 trillion to output in the five years from 2020. Asia Pacific will account for US$2.5 trillion of growth in construction output between 2020 and 2030, up by over 50% to become a US$7.4 trillion market by 2030. Construction output in North America will grow by 32%, or US$580 billion from 2020 to 2030, to US$2.4 trillion in 2030. Western Europe is forecast to grow by 23% between 2020 and 2030 and is expected to push up construction output to US$2.5 trillion in 2030. Average annual growth in construction of 3.6% per annum over the decade to 2030 will be higher than manufacturing or services.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Green Technology, Manufacturing, and Construction
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
238. Democracy and the Challenges of Climate Change
- Author:
- Kevin Casas-Zamora
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Climate change, being one of the most pressing issues today, has been addressed by many countries at the local, regional and global level. In this issue briefing, Dr. Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance discusses the challenges, strengths, and opportunities that democracy faces in tackling climate change. He states that the main challenges in tackling climate change are based on short-termism, self-referring mechanisms, and elements of governing capacities. Furthermore, he argues that democracy shows strength in this sense as a system of governance that allows for a strong civil society, free flow of information, societal consensus, and peaceful transformations of conflicts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democracy, and Participatory Budgeting
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
239. Takeaways from COP26
- Author:
- Mohammed Mahmoud and Abbey Krulik
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Mohammed Mahmoud, director of MEI's Climate and Water Program, and Abbey Krulik, who attended the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, as an observer, discuss takeaways from the conference and the Glasgow Pact that was signed there.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, Water, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Egypt and Global Focus
240. How to rein in fossil fuel subsidies ? Towards a New WTO Regime
- Author:
- Simon Happersberger, Eleanor Mateo, and Selcukhan Ünekbas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- Fossil fuel subsidies have negative consequences on the climate change, public budgets and and the transition to an environmentally friendly economy. Nevertheless, governments do not keep up with their commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies but misallocate again COVID-19 recovery funds in fossil fuel subsidies. This article provides an analysis of the current obstacles for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and the potential of the WTO to advance a reform on fossil fuel subsidies. It argues that the WTO can contribute to a fossil fuel subsidies reform by its technical expertise in regulating subsidies, by its broad membership and by its institutional setting. Under the current framework of the ASCM, WTO member can use existing mechanisms, such as the TPRM, to increase transparency in the short term and facilitate discussions on the scope of subsidies while mitigating impacts on vulnerable groups or sectors. This would provide the ground for governments to work towards a new and ambitious agreement to stop producer fossil fuels subsidies and phase out consumer fossil fuels subsidies in the mid-to-long-term. However, the phase out of consumer subsidies needs to be carefully designed and embedded, to avoid unintended consequences on energy access and vulnerable households.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Trade, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, WTO, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus