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21. Breaking the Newtonian Fetish: Conceptualizing War Differently for a Changing World

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Explaining what a military’s social paradigm concerning conflict and war is requires a theoretical approach to both frame the core constructs and offer feasible alternatives. This article introduces social paradigm theory for military application and how most modern, technologically advanced militaries sustain a Newtonian-styled worldview concerning warfare and what constitutes war. The Newtonian-styled war paradigm gained prominence during the last five centuries, yet is now becoming increasingly insufficient and possibly irrelevant. The integration of ever-increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence into nearly all aspects of warfare will require new ways of thinking and how teams of humans and AI systems collaborate in complex security contexts immediately. The new combination of the space domain, cyberspace, those military forces associated with these new domains, and special operations activities are of increased focus for how and why conflict may change, particularly within an overarching traditional nuclear deterrence between state competitors. This requires a military paradigmatic shift, moving away from Newtonian constructs.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Warfare, Complexity, Force Design, and Emergence
Political Geography:
Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

22. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate

Author:
Masao Dahlgren
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. How Authoritarian Value Systems Undermine Global AI Governance

Author:
Sabhanaz Rashid Diya
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Digital authoritarianism is often considered an issue limited to a few illiberal regimes. However, neo-liberal AI technologies can be equally pervasive. It is crucial to treat authoritarianism as a values complex that permeates both autocratic and liberal societies. Authoritarian values may manifest through transplant of legal practices between states, autocratic homogenization through multilateral mechanisms, and exploitation of geopolitical tensions to adopt protectionist policies. These approaches exacerbate public polarization around AI governance by creating a false dichotomy between innovation and sovereignty on the one hand, and fundamental rights on the other, chipping away at institutional trust. Sabhanaz Rashid Diya writes that policy solutions to mitigate the erosion of democratic norms and public trust should focus on international mechanisms central to AI governance. These mechanisms need to introduce procedural safeguards that ensure transparency and accountability through equitable multi-stakeholder processes. Additionally, they should encourage regulatory diversity tailored to sociopolitical contexts and aligned with international human rights principles.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. The Accountability Surface of Militaries Using Automated Technologies

Author:
Arthur Holland Michel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
There are many people, decisions and technologies involved in the process leading to the use of force in military operations. Each of these touch points is a locus for applying — or failing to apply — accountability when things go wrong. The “accountability surface” is a new term of art to characterize the degree to which humans involved in the use of force can be held accountable for undue harm in warfare. As a metaphor, the accountability surface insists upon a crucial question regarding the use of military autonomous and automating technologies: Will the use of this technology expand or contract the degree to which anyone in the organization will be held accountable for any harms resulting from any process in which it plays a role? Automating technologies have the potential to significantly diminish the accountability surface of militaries that use them.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Toward a Model Code for Digital Safety

Author:
Michel Girard
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Although standards are being published to address privacy, cybersecurity and high-risk artificial intelligence, more needs to be done to address digital harms. Stakeholders are playing catch-up with a tsunami of new, unproven digital technologies, and standards are developed after the fact. One approach gaining traction is the development of a model code for digital safety. This code would define a set of core values that should be embedded in new digital technologies in order to prevent harms from occurring in the first place. This would replicate what stakeholders have been doing for close to 100 years to ensure the safety of the built environment.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Safety
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:
Governance, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, Large Language Models (LLMs), and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Into Uncharted Waters: Trade Secrets Law in the AI Era

Author:
Burcu Kilic
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) has many beneficial applications that can improve quality of life, but accountability and transparency can be elusive when problems arise. This paper looks at the tools, systems and measures needed to ensure that when AI systems do more harm than good, their administrators are held accountable. Trade secrets law protects the source code, algorithms and data sets upon which AI systems are built, but they also prevent those harmed by these systems from getting answers. Requests for disclosure, data sharing and due process are being denied in the name of trade secrets protection. Complicating the matter is that trade secrets are treated differently in various jurisdictions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Trade Secrets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Explainable AI Policy: It Is Time to Challenge Post Hoc Explanations

Author:
Mardi Witzel, Gaston H. Gonnet, and Tom Snider
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The focus of this paper is on policy guidance around explainable artificial intelligence (AI) or the ability to understand how AI models arrive at their outcomes. Explainability matters in human terms because it facilitates including an individual’s “right to explanation” and it also plays a role in enabling technical evaluation of AI systems. The paper begins with an examination of the meaning of explainability, concluding that the constellation of related terms serves to frustrate and confuse policy initiatives. Following a brief review of contemporary policy guidance, it argues that there is a need for greater clarity and context-specific guidance, highlighting the need to distinguish between ante hoc and post hoc explainability, especially in high-risk, high-impact contexts. The question of whether post hoc or ante hoc methods have been employed is a fundamental and often-overlooked question in policy. The paper argues that the question of which method should be employed in a given context, along with the requirement for human-level understanding, is a key challenge that policy makers need to address. A taxonomy for how explainability can be operationalized in AI policy is proposed and a series of recommendations is set forth.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. International Norms Development and AI in the Military Domain

Author:
Tim Sweijs and Sofia Romansky
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military applications has changed the way countries engage in war and in times of peace. With so many potential effects of military AI applications, both positive and negative, there is growing demand for international norms to govern their responsible use based on ethical and legal principles. While some argue that current international and human rights laws are sufficient, this paper makes the case for expanding norms to encompass the rapid growth of military AI use while looking at the challenges facing international norms development, current initiatives, and strengths and weaknesses in the normative landscape.
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction

Author:
Holden Karnofsky
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
If-then commitments are an emerging framework for preparing for risks from AI without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. The more attention and interest there is in these commitments, the faster a mature framework can progress.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Risk, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus