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1. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:
Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

Author:
Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society. A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?
Topic:
Agriculture, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and Nanoweaponry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen Hendrix
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the warming and cooling cycle in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affects both global atmospheric and ocean conditions—is a driver of geopolitical risk at the global scale. Using nonlinear cross-convergent mapping, a technique for characterizing causal relationships in dynamic systems, it finds ENSO is causally related to geopolitical risk at the global level, but that finding is not replicated at the country level for countries whose economies are most strongly influenced by ENSO cycles. Put differently, ENSO-related geopolitical risk is an emergent phenomenon evident only at the Earth system level. Then, using monthly observations of ENSO and geopolitical risk, the paper reports a curvilinear, contemporaneous relationship between ENSO and risk, with La Niña conditions associated with lessened geopolitical risk relative to El Niño and neutral climate conditions. The effects are statistically and substantively significant, and the relationship is demonstrated to be stronger in more recent decades (post-1990). The effect for geopolitical risk of transitioning from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions is of similar magnitude to that of the outbreak of a major interstate war.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Politics, Geopolitics, Risk, Weather, and El Niño
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Modelling the environmental impact of agri-food trade policies

Author:
Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the era of globalization, international trade policies significantly influence the economic and environmental conditions of countries. As environmental concerns grow, it’s important to understand how these trade policies affect sustainable development and identify the strategies needed to achieve positive outcomes for the climate and environment. This analysis aims to evaluate the impact of international agricultural trade on achieving certain climate and environmental goals, particularly those outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), mainly Goal 13, but also parts of other environment-related goals. We examined the effects of specific trade agreements, considering the current energy and climate policies, using modeling tools to focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions like N2O and CH4. This helps us understand how international trade can reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally and find ways to prevent pollution from simply moving to other regions due to changes in trade. This working paper provides arguments for developing new and improved trade policies that incorporate environmental measures as tools to mitigate climate change.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Food, Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Agriculture and Food at COP28: Not Just More Money

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The recent COP28 Climate Summit has finally given due recognition to food and agriculture given the close links between climate change and food production. While the summit saw a big push to operationalise the newly established Loss and Damage Fund, limited attention was given to agriculture in discussions on the said fund. Rather than focusing on drawing from the new fund to promote sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices, greater attention is needed instead to mobilising existing funds.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Defining and Assessing Transformational Climate Change Adaptation: A framework for application to agri-food projects

Author:
Richard Kohl
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper proposes a framework of four indicators of transformational adaptation – the breadth and depth of change, the intention to achieve transformation, scale and sustainability – and provides a framework to apply these indicators to four types of interventions in agri-food systems.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Sustainability, Adaptation, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Defining the Path to Zero Hunger in an Equitable World

Author:
Catherine Bertini, Peggy Tsai Yih, Roger Thurow, and Gloria Dabek
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
During the 2022 World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogues, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and The Rockefeller Foundation gathered experts and stakeholders from climate, agriculture, food security, and humanitarian backgrounds to discuss a bold vision for a 21st Century of zero hunger in a healthier and more equitable world. The white paper, “Defining the Path to Zero Hunger in an Equitable World,” reflects a summary of their views and offers a framework to reimagine a hunger-free world. The quickened pace of extreme weather events, disruptions to agricultural markets from the war in Ukraine and other conflicts, and a fragile post-pandemic international economy rattled the global food chain. A culmination of these realities is complicating the dual imperative to both nourish the planet and preserve it from environmental threats. According to the 2022 IPCC report, without immediate changes, extreme weather will likely render large areas of crop and livestock land unsuitable by 2050, potentially pushing millions of people into food insecurity. The newly outlined white paper tackles some of the greatest obstacles facing the nexus of food security, climate, and humanitarian spaces, and ultimately voices hope for a better food future. It amplifies this message by providing an analysis of three major obstacles—silos, myopic priorities, and top-down decision-making—in conjunction with catalyzing ideas that address these challenges.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Food Security, Hunger, Equity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Bridging the Gap: A "Sustainable Food Seal"

Author:
Paul E. III Schickler, Francesca Debiase, Sally Rockey, Jennifer Goldston, Peggy Tsai Yih, and Natalie Burdsall
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Climate change is wrecking havoc on the global food supply chain, drawing attention to the benefits of sustainable practices for preserving the food system. As a result, consumers are starting to shift their purchasing behaviors, opting for more sustainable food options that might have a smaller carbon footprint or use fewer resources. To help inform their purchasing decisions, consumers are demanding more information on how and where their food is produced, but they are largely unable to find a labeling system with clear and comprehensive standards; existing "green" and "eco" labels are often private certification schemes that focus on only one aspect of sustainability. A "sustainable food seal" is a potential solution. A label that would standardize a food product’s eco-score to reduce consumer confusion, sustainable food seals take an inclusive approach to food labeling that use comparable metrics that involve all parts of the food value chain—from farm to fork—and offer the opportunity to validate practices and empower stakeholders to support a more sustainable food supply chain. Based on a November 2022 roundtable, the first in a series of regular convenings, the white paper “Bridging the Gap: A ‘Sustainable Food Seal’ Needed to Improve Transparency between Farmers and Consumers about Sustainable Food Production” explores current food labeling practices, identifies challenges to label standardization and voluntary adoption, and proposes potential actions and strategies to provide insight into the role a “sustainable food seal” can play in enhancing sustainability through food.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, Food Security, Sustainability, Farming, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Encouraging Farmer Adoption of Regenerative Agriculture Practices in the United States

Author:
Kelly Wilson, Stephanie Mercier, and Rob Myers
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Regenerative agriculture can help our food and agricultural systems become more resilient. Farmers and ranchers are facing escalating challenges from climate change as they confront the consistent need to maintain high levels of productivity. Modern farming practices have enabled farmers to increase per acre production substantially over the last several decades, but these practices can also contribute to the depletion of the quantity and quality of natural resources (such as soil and water). There is a potential solution: regenerative agriculture. Regenerative agriculture is an emerging approach to farming that aims to increase farm resiliency by improving soil health, restoring natural resources, and increasing biodiversity through integrated farming practices. It can play a key role in helping farmers develop more resilient production systems and mitigate the challenges they face, all while contributing to the goals of companies supporting these practices, including goals of achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable supply chains. Regenerative agriculture does, however, face barriers that impede its adoption, namely financial concerns, access to necessary materials, equipment, and infrastructure, knowledge and education, time, and land tenure. Through public and private programs aimed at supporting farmers' adoption of regenerative agricultural practices, it is possible to reduce barriers to implementation and build farmer capacities, ultimately championing a regenerative future for agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, Sustainability, Resilience, and Farming
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

10. Towards an Intersectional Feminist Development Policy for Germany

Author:
Aïssa Boodhoo and Damjan Denkovski
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
In the development of Germany’s Feminist Development Policy Strategy, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) conducted a consultative process which included online consultations, a high-level conference, and civil society dialogues. While the broadest consultative process by the German government to date, the BMZ process had limitations in terms of Global South participation and language accessibility. To complement the official BMZ-led process, the Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP) initiated a comprehensive co-creation process involving diverse feminist civil society organisations from the Global South, Germany, and other Global North countries. Guided by position papers from various perspectives, desk research, and interviews, the CFFP feminist convenings process involved over 100 feminists from diverse backgrounds, spanned over 25 countries, provided compensation to small and Global South organisations, and incorporated intersectional perspectives. The process consisted of in-person and online convenings held in multiple languages, ensuring broad accessibility. This report is a summary of the rich discussions and recommendations of feminists. It aims to influence policymakers and initiate action in shaping Germany's Feminist Development Policy. This report opens by discussing five action areas in chapter 1, which serve as comprehensive guidelines for immediate transformative action across policy areas. The second chapter discusses feminist reflections in six thematic areas: economic justice, climate justice, food sovereignty and agriculture, sexual and reproductive health and rights, protecting minority rights, and education.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Education, Minorities, Partnerships, Feminism, Reproductive Rights, Digitalization, Funding, and Food Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus