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941. Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis

Author:
Daniel F. Runde
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The size and scope of the global forced migration crisis are unprecedented. Almost 66 million people worldwide have been forced from home by conflict. If recent trends continue, this figure could increase to between 180 and 320 million people by 2030. This global crisis already poses serious challenges to economic growth and risks to stability and national security, as well as an enormous human toll affecting tens of millions of people. These issues are on track to get worse; without significant course correction soon, the forced migration issues confronted today will seem simple decades from now. Yet, efforts to confront the crisis continue to be reactive in addressing these and other core issues. The United States should broaden the scope of its efforts beyond the tactical and reactive to see the world through a more strategic lens colored by the challenges posed—and opportunities created—by the forced migration crisis at home and abroad. CSIS convened a diverse task force in 2017 to study the global forced migration crisis. This report is a result of those findings.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

942. Re-Thinking Global Climate Change: A Local Bottom-Up Perspective

Author:
Rafael Leal-Arcas
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
This article provides a timely and forward-thinking analysis regarding the transition to clean energy. It does so by offering a behavioral-economics analysis of prosumer-market factors. We argue that transitioning to clean energy cannot be achieved solely through top-down or bottom-up methods; rather, a symbiotic relationship between government or businesses creating opportunities and individual prosumers is key. The article puts an emphasis on the effectiveness of bottom-up factors like smart cities, NGOs, and ordinary citizens.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, NGOs, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

943. Climate Change: Conflict and Cooperation (Full Issue)

Author:
Meagan Torello, Rafael Leal-Arcas, Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia, Carmel Davis, Ziad Al Achkar, Ang Zhao, Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, Molly Jahn, Therese Adam, Peter J. Schraeder, Juan Macias-Amoretti, and Karim Bejjit
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
In the first issue of our 20th volume, the cooperative and conflictual nature of climate change in international relations is explored. Rafael Leal-Arcas analyzes the necessity of a symbiotic relationship between bottom-up and top-down negotiations to implement clean energy consumption. Following, Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia begin this issue's dialogue on climate change and security. Carmel Davis discusses the effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa's ability to develop and subsequently mitigate conflict. Similarly, Ziad Al Achkar outlines the economic, environmental, and security threats in the Arctic as its ice continues to melt. Zhao Ang then discusses China's ability and incentives to pursuing a greener economy. Following, Buddikha Jayamaha, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn discuss the security and development of climate change implications in the Sahel region. The main portion of this issue proudly concludes with the Journal's interview with former Swiss Ambassador Therese Adam on climate change negotiations and the great potential for civil society engagement. Following the climate change portion of this issue, we feature a special sup-topic: Africa Rising. Here, Peter Schraeder discusses the effects of President Donald Trump's foreign policy in Africa. Juan Macías-Amoretti analyzes the role of Islam in Moroccan politics, while Karim Bejjit concludes with a discussion on Morocco's growing relationship with the AU.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Islam, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, North Africa, Switzerland, Morocco, Sahel, and Global Focus

944. Discussing Climate Change Action with Former Swiss Ambassador Therese Adam

Author:
Therese Adam and Meagan Torello
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
A conversation with former Swiss ambassador Therese Adam.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Gender Issues, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Switzerland, and Global Focus

945. The Thirty Years Climate Warning: Climate Change, Security, and the Responsibility to Prepare

Author:
Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War coincided with the beginning of global awareness about the risks of climate change. This paper analyzes a thirty-year period beginning with the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and ending in the present year of 2018. This period is characterized by unprecedented social, political, economic and climatic shifts, as well as first-time technological change-including improvements in our ability to predict future changes in the climate and their implications for international security.1 Importantly, while some of these changes have caught the international security community off-guard, we have seen the climate risks coming for many decades. The combination of unprecedented risks and foresight underscore a “Responsibility to Prepare.” This involves taking all possible steps to avoid an unmanageable climate, and climate-proofing of our security institutions at national, regional and international levels.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Cold War, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

946. Perils of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Proliferation: Preventing Non-State Acquisition

Author:
Philip Chartoff
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Throughout the late 90s, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda allegedly made numerous attempts to acquire nuclear material from illicit actors. Starting in 2004, Hezbollah has been deploying Iranian-made, military-grade drones for surveillance and engagement. Terrorist groups, illicit organisations, and other non-state actors have a long fascination with advanced weapons technologies. In the early 90s, the Japanese death cult Aum Shinrikyo pursued multiple avenues to develop chemical, nuclear and biological weapons, eventually succeeding in the creation and deployment of Sarin gas. Throughout the late 90s, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda allegedly made numerous attempts to acquire nuclear material from illicit actors. Starting in 2004, Hezbollah has been deploying Iranian-made, military-grade drones for surveillance and engagement. Despite the relative success of less sophisticated weapons, and the substantial expense and difficulty of acquisition for more advanced systems, non-state actors continue to pursue advanced weapons for two significant reasons. For less funded, less powerful non-state actors, advanced weapons substantially increase the scale of the force they can wield against enemies—they promise to “level the playing field”. Advanced weapon systems also offer a significant reputational and symbolic benefit to non-state actors, as the ownership of such weapons confer a status limited to only a handful of powerful nations. States have long recognized these risks, and established numerous arms and export controls to restrict and regulate the transfer of massively destructive weapons. However, international efforts to restrict proliferation of such weapons are currently lagging behind the emergence of new, possibly as-destructive, technologies. In particular, the last few years have marked the rapid development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). Considering their potential to escalate conflicts and inflict massive collateral damage, the international community has long been debating necessary restrictions on the implementation of autonomy in weapons systems, even considering a ban on fully-autonomous systems. However, such conversations have largely been limited to state use. The international community has been painfully slow to address the possible acquisition and use of LAWS by non-state actors.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

947. Business and Private Diplomacy:A Potential Catalyst for Sustainable Peace

Author:
Misha Nagelmackers-Voinov
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Long considered a natural partner for peace through economic diplomacy and bilateral trade agreements, business has increasingly become ignored or demonised. The private sector comprises a wide diversity of organisations and is the part of the economy that is not run by a state, but by individuals and companies for profit. Small businesses/micro-companies serve as a good starting point for a conflict resolution process because they often constitute the only form of economic activity in a conflict zone. MNCs have a range of options to respond to conflict, but cannot openly take part in conflict resolution and peacebuilding initiatives, and rarely become involved officially. Track Two diplomacy is their more likely area of involvement. The United Nations has frequently supported the view that the private sector can be a powerful agent of change. However, the UN still engages only two players in conflict resolution and peacebuilding: civil society/NGOs and armed actors. UN peace operations have never been expressly mandated to consult with business or use its influence to build peace. Combining the resources, expertise and leverage of all possible actors would produce a more formidable force for peace. World affairs would benefit from integrating the private sector into a new UN system of governance; new routes are possible for a truly inclusive approach, recognising the business sector’s positive contribution to sustainable peace through informal mediation and collaborative engagement.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economy, Business, Peace, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
United Nations and Global Focus

948. Art of Economic Statecraft: When Pain Matters

Author:
Dimitriy Nurullayev
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
When employing economic sanctions, what are the best practices to induce desired outcomes for the sending state(s)? Broad economic sanctions have been shown to be ineffective. Recognizing that sanctioning as a diplomatic strategy is unlikely to be abandoned, scholars have focused on making the case for smart timing and targeting of sanctions. Their arguments stem from deciphering the internal drivers of decision making within targeted states. Unlike work that is reliant on solely internal mechanisms, this paper enhances the understanding of targeted states by examining cost-benefit strategies of (1) individual leaders and (2) nation states that are in pursuit of strategic goals. This paper argues that when sanctions create large costs (anticipated or inflicted) on the target, those sanctions have a higher likelihood of producing successful outcomes regardless whether the sanctions are “smart” This study utilizes TIES data on sanctioning and Polity scores on democracy. I use ordinal logit and ordinary least squares regression to estimate the models and find strong support for the hypothesis
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Nationalism, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

949. Fluid Foundations: Ocean Transparency, Submarine Opacity, and Strategic Nuclear Stability

Author:
Elizabeth Ann Mendenhall
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The primary value of submarines as a nuclear platform is their ability to hide undetected beneath the sea. The persistence of a ‘secure’ second strike, and therefore nuclear strategic stability, rests on fluid foundations: ocean transparency is a continuous and dynamic variable. Technological advancement in marine sensing – increasingly driven by non-military imperatives like climate change – currently risks the achievement of an unprecedented degree of transparency. After tracing the Cold War competition between hiding and seeking, this paper evaluates progress in ocean sensing, to identify where and how incremental improvements and radical innovations may make SSBNs more detectable and targetable than ever before. Emerging ocean transparency has implications for nuclear policy, force structure, and strategy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Global Focus

950. Governing Land Investments: Do Governments Have Legal Support Gaps?

Author:
Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the wave of efforts to encourage and support more “responsible” land investments, one aspect has been largely overlooked: are governments equipped with the legal and technical support needed to effectively negotiate and conclude investment contracts that lead to responsible outcomes? CCSI researched how host governments access legal support in the planning, negotiation, and monitoring of land investments, with a view to better understanding where legal support gaps for governments exist, and how these can be addressed by governments themselves, as well as by donors, support providers and investors. By scrutinizing “legal support gaps,” CCSI sought to identify possible weak links in global and national efforts to achieve more responsible land investments, as well as opportunities to encourage better practice. For example, legal support holds the potential—albeit not yet regularly realized—to be an entry point for incorporating international best practice and guidelines into negotiations and at other stages of the investment. The report also takes stock of how governments are negotiating and concluding land investments in practice, to determine where additional legal support could potentially improve outcomes for governments.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, and Land
Political Geography:
Global Focus