The Deal of the Century will allow Trump/Kushner, Netanyahu and bin Salman to merely buy time, each for his own domestic benefit. It is likely to split up an Arab camp that has served as the American vanguard.
Hirak has been the relegation of the Islamists because the protesters showed no interest in an Islamist ideology. They are opposed to foreign interference and have warned the West, particularly the former colonial power France, from interfering in their movement.
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been
blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the
United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats
them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts
to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition
groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives
them as such a challenge
Perhaps the most famous quote from Thucydides is “the strong do what
they can, the weak suffer what they must.”1
For thousands of years, it has been accepted that the weak must comply or face the fate of the Melians. Today, the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may be revising that truth. It is creating a wide range of small, smart, cheap weapons that can provide small states combat power previously reserved to major powers
This brief emerged from discussions during an Atlantic Council Global
Energy Center roundtable on European energy security held in Brussels
on March 27, 2019, as well as other events and individual meetings with
government officials, private sector executives, and leading academics
in the global energy sector. The collective dialogues and key takeaways
are reflected in this brief. Because the conversations took place under the
Chatham House Rule, the information will not be attributed to any specific individual. The brief will provide a current assessment of EU energy security focusing on the role of gas markets, while future briefs in the European Energy Security series will take a closer look at other critical issues impacting European energy security. Following these briefs, a final report in 2020 will propose specific recommendations for the US and EU governments on how to address transatlantic energy security issues.
uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East.
Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many
US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East
expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab
world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western
ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however,
many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being
lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in
Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace
agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the
downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet
one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet;
and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself
from 1989 to 1991
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been
blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the
United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats
them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts
to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition
groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives
them as such a challenge.
As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge
from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is
now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional
rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and
Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support
for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force
accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov,
demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
his year marks twenty years since the Security Council added the ‘protection of civilians in armed conflict’ to its agenda and authorised the first UN peacekeeping mission to explicitly protect civilians. Yet efforts to carry forward that mandate in the field over the last two decades have been mixed. While there is consensus among the member states within the UN that peacekeeping missions should protect, there remain different views among the various stakeholders on the limits and expectations of peacekeepers when it comes to implementing this mandate. And the consequences for the civilians on the ground—which expect protection from the UN—can be dire.