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371. The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance

Author:
Steven Feldstein
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is rapidly proliferating around the world. Startling developments keep emerging, from the onset of deepfake videos that blur the line between truth and falsehood, to advanced algorithms that can beat the best players in the world in multiplayer poker. Businesses harness AI capabilities to improve analytic processing; city officials tap AI to monitor traffic congestion and oversee smart energy metering. Yet a growing number of states are deploying advanced AI surveillance tools to monitor, track, and surveil citizens to accomplish a range of policy objectives—some lawful, others that violate human rights, and many of which fall into a murky middle ground. In order to appropriately address the effects of this technology, it is important to first understand where these tools are being deployed and how they are being used. Unfortunately, such information is scarce. To provide greater clarity, this paper presents an AI Global Surveillance (AIGS) Index—representing one of the first research efforts of its kind. The index compiles empirical data on AI surveillance use for 176 countries around the world. It does not distinguish between legitimate and unlawful uses of AI surveillance. Rather, the purpose of the research is to show how new surveillance capabilities are transforming the ability of governments to monitor and track individuals or systems. It specifically asks: Which countries are adopting AI surveillance technology? What specific types of AI surveillance are governments deploying? Which countries and companies are supplying this technology?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Privacy, Surveillance, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

372. Cyber Risk Scenarios, the Financial System, and Systemic Risk Assessment

Author:
Lincoln Kaffenberger and Emanuel Kopp
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risk has become a key issue for stakeholders in the financial system. But its properties are still not precisely characterized and well understood. To help develop a better understanding, we discuss the properties of cyber risk and categorize various cyber risk scenarios. Furthermore, we present a conceptual framework for assessing systemic cyber risk to individual countries. This involves analyzing cyber risk exposures, assessing cybersecurity and preparedness capabilities, and identifying buffers available to absorb cyber risk–induced shocks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Finance, Internet, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

373. ICT Supply Chain Integrity: Principles for Governmental and Corporate Policies

Author:
Ariel Levite
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In an increasingly digitized world, information and communication technologies (ICTs), and especially operational technologies (OTs), have assumed critical importance for governments, industry, and the general public worldwide. Yet trust in the integrity of these products and services is declining because of mounting concerns over inadvertent vulnerabilities in the supply chain and intentional backdoor interventions by state and corporate actors. Compounding the problem, these legitimate security concerns are sometimes exaggerated for political and commercial reasons—a counterproductive dynamic that fuels rivalries, fragments the marketplace, increases anxiety, stifles innovation, and drives up costs. Inarguably, some governments have been intervening in the ICT/OT supply chain or at least laying the groundwork for such interventions. They believe the pursuit to be justifiable and legal, citing objectives related to intelligence, law enforcement, and military operations. Whether valid or not, the concern is that certain corporations are actively or passively weakening the security of the supply chain and final products either at the behest of governments or for questionable purposes. Another concern is that both state and corporate interventions could leverage or mask what are purely lax security standards or flaws in products and services. And this further reduces trust in ICT/OT.
Topic:
Security, Government, Science and Technology, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus

374. Lessons Learned and Evolving Practices of the TIBER Framework for Resilience Testing in the Netherlands

Author:
Petra Hielkema and Raymond Kleijmeer
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Financial institutions face an evolving threat landscape with a wide range of hostile actors targeting them. Regulators and consumers reasonably expect the institutions to make themselves more secure. The question then emerges as to whether financial institutions are complying with the different standards, rules, and regulations regarding their security. International standard-setting bodies have recognized the need to raise the bar higher for the resilience of financial institutions. The publication of the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures-International Organization of Securities Commissions (CPMI-IOSCO) guidance on cyber resilience in June 2016 has been pivotal in emphasizing the need to have an integrated approach for financial market infrastructures, with the institution’s board being ultimately responsible and accountable for cyber resilience.1 Increasingly, authorities and financial institutions alike recognize that, in addition to assessing the overall resilience posture of a financial institution against sophisticated attacks, it will be important to actually test this posture. The CPMI-IOSCO guidance includes a chapter dedicated to testing, containing several examples of activities to that end. Recently, frameworks for testing the resilience posture of institutions in practice have been developed internationally.
Topic:
Markets, Science and Technology, Finance, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe, Netherlands, and Global Focus

375. Defending Civic Space: Is the International Community Stuck?

Author:
Saskia Brechenmacher and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the mid-2000s, civic space has come under attack in many countries around the world. To counter this trend, transnational actors that support civil society have responded in many ways—from exerting diplomatic pressure and building international norms to providing emergency funds for activists. Despite these efforts, governments continue to impose legal and extralegal restrictions amid a worsening larger political environment for civil society. Closing civic space now appears to be just one part of a much broader pattern of democratic recession and authoritarian resurgence. The international response seems stuck: some useful efforts have been undertaken, but they appear too limited, loosely focused, and reactive.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Political Activism, and International Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

376. Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Technologies for the Refugee System

Author:
Raya Pakzad
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Efforts are being made to use information and communications technologies to improve accountability in providing refugee aid. However, there remains a pressing need for increased accountability and transparency when designing and deploying humanitarian technologies. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities of emerging technologies, such as machine learning and blockchain, in the refugee system. The paper concludes by recommending the creation of quantifiable metrics for sharing information across both public and private initiatives; the creation of the equivalent of a “Hippocratic oath” for technologists working in the humanitarian field; the development of predictive early-warning systems for human rights abuses; and greater accountability among funders and technologists to ensure the sustainability and real-world value of humanitarian apps and other digital platforms.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Refugee Issues, Digital Economy, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

377. Managing Urban Flood Risk: A Framework for Evaluating Alternative Policy Instruments

Author:
Daniel Henstra and Jason Thistlethwaite
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
To maximize the effectiveness of flood risk management, city governments should employ multiple policy instruments to balance the objectives of resilience (i.e., risk reduction), efficiency (i.e., benefits exceed costs) and legitimacy (i.e., political and public support). Flood risk management instruments differ to the extent that they emphasize some of these objectives over others, so informed trade-offs are required when selecting and combining them. Contextual factors, such as available resources, the level of flood risk and the degree of public risk awareness, are also salient when choosing among policy instruments for flood risk management.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Legitimacy, Public Health, and Flood
Political Geography:
Global Focus

378. Evolve or Perish: The Global Forces Changing the Business of Banks

Author:
Robert Fay and Angelo Arcelli
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Group of Twenty embarked on an ambitious financial regulatory reform plan that has seen many banks worldwide make substantial progress in terms of both capitalization and governance. Over this period, banks have also become increasingly exposed to business risks from digitization, artificial intelligence and cybercrime, and major investments are necessary to manage these risks. New regulations have been introduced in the European Union to reduce these risks, but their associated costs have potentially created a lasting competitive disadvantage for European banks. This situation has raised some key questions that deserve to be discussed and investigated: How does regulation — including that outside the sector — affect banks’ ability to compete globally? What will be the impact of fintech players as well as globally active banks from China and other emerging markets? Can the Basel regulatory framework and Financial Stability Board (FSB) ensure a level playing field globally going forward, or has the regulatory pendulum swung too far? How will the supervisory approach need to be adapted to the changing structure of the global financial system? Moreover, how will the implementation of Basel reforms affect the industry? These and other questions remain about the effectiveness of the already-achieved reforms as well as their future direction. These issues were at the core of CIGI and Oliver Wyman’s fifth annual Financial Regulatory Outlook Conference, held in Rome on November 28, 2018. This conference report summarizes the key points of discussions at the conference, with a special focus on the 10 years of regulatory reform that was conducted under the auspices of the FSB and the new forces that are currently affecting banks and could have an impact on the future.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Regulation, Europe Union, and digital culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

379. Innovative Global Governance for Internally Displaced Persons

Author:
Walter Kölin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The number of internally displaced persons is at a record high, with most living in protracted displacement. While the humanitarian response in emergency situations is more effective than a decade ago, overall governance — the set of norms, institutions and processes necessary to address internal displacement — remains weak. Using the 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement as the normative point of reference, this paper addresses several questions: What governance gaps and challenges exist in responses to internal displacement? Are there promising new approaches to internal displacement? How can we build on these approaches to make responses more reliable and effective?
Topic:
Governance, Displacement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Internal Displacement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

380. The Global Refugee Regime and UN System-wide Reforms

Author:
Sarah Miller
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper considers how responsibility for ensuring refugee protection and access to solutions can be shared more reliably across the United Nations’ system, by examining entry points beyond traditional humanitarian actors (including peace and security actors in the United Nations), as well as the role states can play in supporting a broader response from the UN system. It draws upon a range of literature and concepts, including the Responsibility to Protect doctrine, offering a mapping and analysis of the proposed UN reforms within the humanitarian, development, financial, and peace and security sectors. It then considers how these reforms might be relevant to responsibility sharing in displacement situations and lays out some of the broader challenges to greater responsibility sharing. Finally, the paper provides recommendations for how to more fully engage these other actors — within the United Nations and beyond — to improve the prevention of, response to and resolution of displacement.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Refugee Issues, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus