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1271. Out of the desert: ISIS's strategy for a long war

Author:
Hassan Hassan
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The collapse of ISIS’s caliphate and its subsequent flight from much of its former territory has been a triumph for the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq and Syria. However, for ISIS, expulsion from former urban strongholds is the end of one chapter and the beginning of another: the group has since rolled out a well-developed strategy to assure its future resurgence. This paper examines ISIS’s actions, publications, and communications to determine its insurgency strategies and long-term organizational outlook, emphasizing sources that have been largely overlooked by forces fighting the group. By analyzing the strategies ISIS uses and has used in its previous incarnations, this paper argues that insurgent groups like ISIS will continue to operate within the ungoverned space along the Syria-Iraq border, and that if left unchecked, the group is likely to re-emerge
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

1272. Fiscal Sustainability in Mongolia in 2018

Author:
Tsolmon Baatarzorig, Nyambaatar Batbayar, and Ragchaasuren Galindev
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In 2017, Mongolia received an extensive bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Since taking the IMF loan, Mongolia has had good economic luck. A record high year of coal production combined with a surge in commodity prices has left the country with a budget revenue windfall. This has allowed gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.3 percent, which was higher than the forecasted 3 percent. Mongolia has reduced its fiscal deficit and public debt is declining. The country’s credit rating has improved and it has managed to repay two large foreign currency-denominated bonds. The government has also recently created a Fiscal Stability Council to improve budget oversight.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Global Focus

1273. Tip-Toeing Toward Transparency: Jade and Gemstone Sector Disclosures in Myanmar

Author:
Paul Shortell
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Myanmar exports more than 90 percent of global jade supply and is also a leading source of high-quality rubies, sapphires and other varieties of colored gemstones. Mining of these precious stones generates billions of dollars annually, making it one of the country’s most significant sectors. Yet the jade and gemstone industry has remained largely shrouded in secrecy, with most profits flowing to armed groups and political elites rather than supporting broad-based economic and social development.1 The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is a global standard designed to “promote the open and accountable management of oil, gas and mineral resources.”2 Since Myanmar became a candidate country in 2014, the EITI process has helped to shine light on the previously opaque jade and gemstone sector. Myanmar EITI released its first reconciliation report, covering fiscal year
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1274. Discussion of Guyana’s Green Paper

Author:
Andrew Bauer, David Mihalyi, and Fernando Patzy
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Guyana is on the verge of becoming an oil-rich country. In absolute terms, Guyana’s petroleum wealth is modest, representing approximately 0.2 percent of global reserves, which places the country 26th globally. However, it possesses the world’s seventh-largest oil reserves per capita, second-largest in Latin America behind Venezuela. If revenue estimates from the Liza field prove to be accurate, Guyana could become one of the world’s largest per capita oil producers over the course of several years in the mid-2020s. According to independent projections, fiscal revenues from the petroleum sector could range between USD 7 and 27 billion over the next 30 years. Between 2025 and 2028, revenues could peak at between USD 800 million and 2.5 billion in a given year, at least doubling Guyana’s national budget in some years. That said, delays on these types of megaprojects are common and some revenue estimates may be optimistic.
Topic:
Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1275. Reaching Wider Populations with Global Online Courses

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Despite the critical relevance of natural resources to millions of peoples’ lives, most citizens of resource-rich countries have limited knowledge about how resources are governed. To address this knowledge gap, the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) developed two online training tools aimed at generating critical awareness and building technical knowledge about core resource governance issues. The first tool is a massive open online course (MOOC), “Natural Resources for Sustainable Development: The Fundamentals of Oil, Gas and Mining Governance.” The second is an online simulation called “Petronia,” named for an imaginary oil-rich country.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1276. Addressing China's Coercion in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Ted Yoho
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of remarks made by Congressman Ted Yoho [R-FL] at our event, “Addressing China’s Coercive Air Power in the Taiwan Strait.” Congressman Yoho, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Asia and the Pacific, asserts his commitment to protecting the interests of Taiwan despite the recent growing aggressive actions and coercive language of Beijing, directed under General Secretary Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, Congressman Yoho addressed the fact that China’s declaration of the new M503 flight path is just one part of their larger strategic plan to quell Taiwan, which motivates him to continue to push the U.S. administration and Congress to prioritize Taiwan and to work to meet the mounting challenges with which China presents us.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1277. Turkish-German Relations From Conjunctural Cooperation to the Solution of Structural Issues

Author:
Zeliha Eliaçık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
To the contrary of its relatively “new” relations with the United States of America, Turkey’s relations with the West have been established and continued via Europe since the period of the Ottoman Empire.1 The military alliance and cooperation initiated between Turkey and Germany in the late 19th century have gained a human dimension in the frame of the “Turkish Labor Force Agreement” signed upon the settlement of Turkish workers in Germany in the 20th century. Bilateral relations have been maintained without interruption despite occasional fluctuations in the intensity of these relations. Recently, the two countries have maintained closer ties as they both are affected by the U.S. sanctions and “trade wars.”
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey, Germany, and Global Focus

1278. Turkey’s counterterrorism strategy an assesment of the fight against DAESH

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
DAESH was one of Turkey’s significant security threats and the terrorist group was able to conduct several major terrorist attacks on Turkish soil; however, DAESH terrorism was halted by Turkish counterterrorism efforts which culminated in cross-border military engagements. This paper analyzes the factors behind this success in order to draw conclusions that explain why previous terrorist attacks took place, and to offer proposals that can further enhance Turkey’s national security policy in a post-DAESH environment. The study argues that specific developments such as the territorial decline of DAESH, the removal of the terrorist group from the borders, enhancements in intelligence and operation fields, and counterterrorism experience ensured the prevention of more terrorist attacks by DAESH terrorists. Consequently, this study proposes that in a post-DAESH setting, Turkey’s national security should be shaped by certain requirements including intelligence superiority, high-level readiness, awareness, and external military activism. Furthermore, it is important that Turkey meticulously examines from the perspective of de-radicalization the possible risks that could unfold from the thousands of DAESH militants detained and currently incarcerated within its borders.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1279. The French Initiative to Change the Qur’an

Author:
Mohammed Hafez
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On April 21, a manifesto was published in the French daily Le Parisien. It was signed by some 300 prominent people, intellectuals and politicians including former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Prime Minister Manuel Valls. The manifesto “contre le nouvel antisémitisme (lit. against the new anti-Semitism)” basically stresses an older topic that is regularly popping up around the Global North, especially in France: According to this concept of “new antiSemitism”, anti-Semitism is currently not a threat perpetrated by the political far-right, but rather by Muslims living in the West
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1280. Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the US Military Presence in North Central Europe

Author:
Philip Breedlove
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In September 2018, the Atlantic Council established a Task Force on US Force Posture in Europe to assess the adequacy of current US deployments, with a focus on North Central Europe. The Task Force is co-chaired by General Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander Europe, and Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, former NATO deputy secretary general. A full report will be completed in January 2019. This paper is a summary of the task force’s conclusions and recommendations.
Topic:
International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus