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281. Georgia: The Risks of Winter - Europe Briefing N°51

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in and around Georgia's conflict areas remains unstable. Violent incidents are continuing. Shots were fired near a convoy carrying the Georgian and Polish presidents on 23 November. European Union (EU) monitors are being denied access to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Unambitious multi-party negotiations focusing on security and internally displaced person (IDP) return have gotten off to a slow start in Geneva. For the moment, however, domestic politics are the capital's main preoccupation. President Mikheil Saakash¬vili's position is at least temporarily secure, but his administration is likely to be severely tested politically and economically in the winter and spring months ahead. The August 2008 war with Russia and the global financial crisis have seriously undermined Georgia's economy and the foreign investment climate. Social discontent could rise as economic conditions worsen unless the government pushes forward with economic and political change.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Georgia

282. China-Russia Relations

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The third quarter of 2008 was quite eventful for Russia and China as well as their bilateral relationship. The 29th Summer Olympics in Beijing opened and concluded with extravaganza and a record 51 gold medals for China. Shortly before the opening ceremony on Aug. 8, Georgia's attacks against South Ossetia – a separatist region of Georgia – led to Russia's massive military response, a five-day war, and Russia's recognition of their independence. Thus, the August guns and games brought the two strategic partners back to the world stage. One consequence of the Georgian-Russian war is that China's “neutrality” is widely seen as a crisis in China's strategic partnership with Russia.
Topic:
Security and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Beijing, and Georgia

283. Reciprocity or the Higher Ground? The Treatment of Ethnic Russians in Georgia After the "Spy Scandal" of 2006

Author:
David Szakonyi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Upon comparison of the treatment of one another‟s ethnic community following the spy scandal,‟ clear differences emerge between Russia‟s and Georgia‟s approaches to the issue. In contrast to the full-fledged targeting and expulsion of both legal and illegal residents on the part of Russia, Georgian officials, media outlets, and citizens responded admirably to the tenuous situation, with few reported incidents of discrimination. However, anti-Russian sentiments, at least at the elite political level, are still very much present among Georgian society, and the consequences of the agitated, negative rhetoric towards Russia by several Georgian leaders could lead to an environment of increased animosity towards Russian speakers. Without specific steps taken by the Georgian government, media outlets, and society as a whole to reduce anti-Russian sentiment, there is a danger of further incensed political relations negatively affecting interpersonal relations between the ethnic Russian minority and the Georgian majority.
Topic:
Intelligence, Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

284. The Georgia-Russia Crisis and the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
This policy brief addresses the Georgia-Russia crisis within the Responsibility to Protect framework. Highlighting that the protection of civilian populations in South Ossetia and elsewhere in the region remains an urgent concern.
Topic:
International Law, Conflict, Civilians, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Georgia, and South Ossetia

285. Georgia: Sliding towards Authoritarianism?

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The government's repressive and disproportionate response to peaceful protests in November 2007 shocked Western capitals, which had viewed Georgia as a beacon of democracy in a region of illiberal regimes. Since the Rose Revolution, however, President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration has become increasingly intolerant of dissent as it has sought to reform inefficient post-Soviet institutions, stimulate a deeply dysfunctional economy, regain the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and deal with its meddling Russian neighbour. In an attempt to restore his democratic credentials, Saakashvili has called an early presidential election for 5 January 2008, which he is expected to win, but a free and fair election will not be enough to repair the damage. The West should press the government to abandon its increasingly authoritarian behaviour, engage in a genuine dialogue with political opponents and make the ongoing reform process transparent and accountable.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Corruption, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

286. Abkhazia: Ways Forward

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fourteen years of negotiation, led alternately by the UN and Russia, have done little to resolve the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. There have been some successes on the ground: ceasefire violations are rare, approximately 45,000 internally displaced (IDP) Georgians have returned to homes in the Gali region, the two sides cooperate on operating the Inguri power plant, and a strategic railway through Abkhazia may restart. But the sharp deterioration in Russian-Georgian relations and a Georgian military adventure in the Kodori valley have contributed to a freeze in diplomacy over Abkhazia since mid-2006. In the absence of a new initiative, new violence is a real possibility. Because prospects are bleak for an early comprehensive settlement of the key political issues, in particular final status, the sides and international facilitators should shift their focus in 2007 to building confidence and cooperation in areas where there are realistic opportunities.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Georgia, and Abkhazia

287. Europe's Unrecognised Neighbours: The EU in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Author:
Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU can do little to achieve its policy objectives in its Eastern neighbourhood without facing the issue of secessionist conflicts. This paper deals with EU policy towards Georgia and the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It discusses the reasons for and constraints on EU policies, their effects and perception in the secessionist entities. The paper concludes with recommendations on how the EU can contribute to conflict resolution in Georgia through a greater inclusion of the conflict regions into the European Neighbourhood Policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

288. Will Georgia Go North? On Democracy and Regional Security in the Caucasus

Author:
Lasha Tchantouridze
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The results of the January 5 2008 presidential elections in Georgia will have a long-lasting effect on this emerging democracy, as well as its foreign policy orientation, and on overall stability in the Caucasus. The winner, Mikheil Saakashvili, widely seen as a pro-American and pro-Western politician very keen on the issues of joining NATO and the EU, has in fact done nothing during his first four years in power to secure his country's political independence from Russia or to weaken Moscow's position in the Caucasus. If Saakashvilis's deeds, rather than his words, are examined more carefully, he appears to be more pro-Russian in his foreign orientation rather than pro-Western. It is not entirely unlikely that President Putin of Russia and his Georgian counterpart Saakashvili are staging the hate game between themselves for the benefit of Western observers and their respective domestic audiences. Saakashvili has just managed to secure his second term in office on the anti-Russian ticket, with all the legal and illegal means at his disposal. This will keep his political opposition, whatever is left of the independent news media, and the majority of Georgians actively opposed to him for years to come. If pressured hard by the West, Saakashvili may be forced to make a turn in his foreign policy orientation, and openly choose Moscow as his political overlord. Such a turn of events would have long reaching consequences for the overall stability and security of the Caucasus, as well as for extra-regional links and energy cooperation.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
America, Caucasus, Moscow, and Georgia

289. Javakheti after the Rose Revolution: Progress and Regress in the Pursuit of National Unity in Georgia

Author:
Hedvig Lohm
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Javakheti is situated in the South-East of Georgia, and is densely inhabited by Georgia's second largest national minority, Armenians. In most respects, Javakheti has been more dependent on Russia (in socio-economic terms) and Armenia (in cultural terms) than on its proper state, Georgia, since Georgia gained independence in 1991. Throughout the 1990s the region was often described as a 'potential hot-spot', yet another possible breakaway region in the Caucasus. This working paper will look into whether the situation has started to change in terms of whether Javakheti is now closer to becoming an integrated part of Georgia, given that territorial unity has been one of the main priorities of the Georgian government since the 'Rose Revolution' of 2003. The aim of this paper is thus to create a better understanding of the challenges that Javakheti faces, in order to facilitate an informed debate on the current situation and the future development of the region.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Armenia, and Georgia

290. Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Vulnerable Crescent

Author:
Anna Matveeva and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The Caucasus and Central Asia – eight countries of the former Soviet Union stretching to the south of Russia and to the west of China – form a chain of weak states, vulnerable to conflict, extremism, and spillover from potential instability in the Middle East, Iran and Afghanistan. Once on the path of the Silk Road, these countries are still transit routes in the world economy rather than major economic players. The overarching problem for the Caucasus countries situated on the eastern fringe of Europe – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as the Russian North Caucasus – is unresolved conflicts that hamper development and poison politics. The Caucasus has become a field for latter-day Great Power battles of influence, in which competing policy agendas, sometimes even from within the same state, make for a fragmented international response that hampers regional integration and development. The autocratic states of Central Asia by contrast risk isolating themselves from the wider world, becoming a source of danger because of their deliberate remoteness. Here the globalized threats of drug trafficking and militant Islam are the biggest potential source of instability. Multilateral organizations such as the UN are still struggling to articulate a coherent response to the two regions as a whole, tending to make more narrow interventions that have limited impact.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia