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11. The Era of Mahmoud Abbas: Prospects for Security, Peace, and Reform

Author:
Khalil Shikaki and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If new Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is to succeed, he must deal with the issue of violence. Over the past year, positive changes have emerged in all areas of Palestinian public opinion except one: the role of violence. In the eyes of the public, violence pays. Three-fourths of Palestinians perceive the disengagement as a victory for violence. To be sure, more than two-thirds of Palestinians believe that Abbas should negotiate with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon. Yet, the public views Israel's unilateral moves as a threat, not an asset. They see only settlements, closures, checkpoints, and humiliation. These perceptions are responsible for their anger. Abbas must help remove dynamics that encourage the public to believe in the utility of violence; otherwise, the issue will continue to impede his ability to govern effectively.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

12. No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves and, with international support, get down to the formidable tasks facing them in the coming months: stabilization of the security situation, Palestinian institution-building, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

13. After Arafat: Challenges Ahead

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The convergence of Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene after four decades of domination and the imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza (which will include the removal of settlements for the first time since 1967) represents a unique opportunity for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Arafat leaves behind a huge leadership void. With such prolonged centralized control over Palestinian affairs, he was everything in one man. He was the glue holding together all strata of Palestinian society—those living inside and outside the territories, Gazans and West Bankers, older and younger generations of activists, Islamists and leftists. He was the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestinian Authority, and the Fatah movement, and he personally controlled political, security, and economic decisionmaking as well as enormous funds. Many forces are likely to attempt to fill the vacuum and share in the inheritance. There are already signs of the emergence of a collective leadership composed of the veteran Fatah leadership, headed by Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) and Ahmad Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) and supported by Fatah activists of the intermediate generation. They will divide Arafat's powers and responsibilities among themselves and seek to stabilize their rule based on the collective desire to preserve national unity. Over time, however, the internal contest over spoils and policies is likely to surface and threaten the new leadership. The imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza, which is deeply dividing Palestinian society, will only add to the challenge.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

14. Domestic Political Challenges in the Israel-Palestinian Arena: Options for Sharon

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two major developments have occurred within the past week in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. First, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon achieved an initial victory on October 26, when the Knesset voted in favor of disengagement from GazaNa significant step that has already created both opportunities and challenges. The vote was the first of many to come on the subject of Gaza withdrawal; the next such item on the parliament's agenda will be addressed on November 3, with a preliminary reading of a bill regarding compensation for Gaza settlers. Second, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat's sudden hospitalization in Paris has raised new questions about Palestinian succession.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

15. The Palestinian Intifada: Lessons and Prospects (Part II)

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In late October 2004, the Israeli parliament will debate Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for "disengagement" from Gaza and the northern West Bank. This plan was born of Israel's experience over the course of the four-year-old Palestinian intifada. Understanding the rationale for disengagement requires a review of the lessons that Israel has learned from this conflict.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

16. The Palestinian Intifada (Part I): Palestinian Lessons and Prospects

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian intifada against Israel, this week entering its fifth year, has wreaked havoc on both Israelis and Palestinians. In Palestinian quarters, it has provoked considerable soul-searching about the wisdom of resorting to terrorism as a tool in the confrontation with Israel. Yasser Arafat remains the Palestinians' paramount political leader, though his standing is diminished at home and abroad. Israel managed to considerably reduce the level and volume of terror against it, but also decided to disengage from Gaza.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

17. Despite Party Setbacks, Sharon Accelerates Disengagement Strategy

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite being rebuffed again by the Likud Party two weeks ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has been undeterred in pursuing disengagement. In publicly broadcast remarks, he informed his fractious parliamentary faction that he was planning to accelerate the timing of his plan for withdrawal from Gaza and four West Bank settlements by holding a cabinet vote not in March 2005, as had been expected, but on October 24 of this year. The actual removal of settlements would follow once the measure passed the Knesset. Having just returned from Israel and the West Bank, I came away with a distinct set of impressions regarding Sharon's motivations, the political levers he believes he has at his disposal in dealing with opponents inside and outside Likud, and the coalition configurations that he is weighing as he pursues his strategy to make disengagement a reality.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

18. Arafat Survives for Now, Amid Divided Fatah Opposition

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) rescinding his recent resignation without gaining any meaningful control over disparate security forces, PA Chairman Yasir Arafat can claim to have won the latest round in the power struggle taking place inside the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat's success is partly attributable to his ability to use a variety of methods to outmaneuver his opponents, as he has done in the past. In addition to intimidating foes and mollifying allies, Arafat has skillfully used his iconic status as a symbol of Palestinian nationalism to retain unquestioned political preeminence. Yet, the more Palestinians are able to distinguish between Arafat the symbol and Arafat the leader, the harder it will be for him to divert criticism.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

19. Assessing the Current Challenge to Arafat

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat is facing a serious challenge to his authority, perhaps the most serious since he arrived in the territories from Tunis a decade ago this month. Yesterday, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) voted by a 43-4 margin to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala), who earlier this week warned he would quit due to the lack of reform in the PA and the lack of authority granted him to halt chaos in the West Bank and Gaza. In doing so, the PLC called for the formation of a new reform-oriented government, a move that could actually serve to strengthen Qurei's position in a power struggle with Arafat. The resignation marks the second time in ten months that a Palestinian prime minister has resigned due to complaints about lack of authority.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

20. Prospects of Israeli Disengagement: A Status Report

Author:
Dennis Ross and Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt