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141. In the Israel-Hamas war, Russia takes the ridge road

Author:
Laetitia Spetschinsky
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The article explores Russia’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, revealing a distinct stance from the US, Europe and many other partners. Moscow refuses to condemn Hamas, advocating instead a path to peace that downplays the US and raises the emerging powers’ profile – especially Russia’s. Examining historical ties, economic connections, and internal dynamics, the article analyses Russia’s role as a mediator. It highlights significant elements in the complex relationships between Russia and strategic regional players such as Iran, China, India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Moscow’s ambitions in the UN. The conclusion discusses potential implications for Europe, emphasizing the EU’s vulnerabilities and the role of key member states.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, European Union, Geopolitics, UN Security Council, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

142. Analyzing the implications of the Gaza war for Israeli-Turkish ties

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ramifications of the war in Gaza have led to a significant downturn in the ties bеtwееn Turkey and Israel. President Rеcеp Tayyip Erdogan's remarks, in a spееch to his AK Party’s lawmakers in parliament on November 16, 2023, branding Israel as a "terrorist state'' and accusing it of perpetrating atrocities against Palestinians have bееn pivotal in escalating tensions between both countries. He further stated that all those supporting Israel’s war on Palestinians were complicit in all Israeli massacres.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Atrocities, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

143. Al-Aqsa Flood: The Collapse of Israeli Deterrence and Attempts to Restore It

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Palestinian resistance dealt a significant blow to the Israeli occupation, leading Israel to retaliate by launching an aggressive campaign on Gaza with full Western support. The objective was to eradicate Hamas and establish a pro-Israel authority in Gaza. However, several factors may impede this outcome, as seen in comparable conflicts.
Topic:
Occupation, Deterrence, Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and Al-Aqsa Flood
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

144. Turkey’s regional policy in the shadow of the Gaza War

Author:
Michael Sarlis
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our November-December issue of Turkeyscope, Michalis Saris discusses Turkey's reaction to the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza War. He notes that Turkey foreign policy has undergone a rapid shift and its relationship with Iran has improved as a result.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

145. Israel Is Doing Exactly What Hamas Wants It to Do

Author:
Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The conflict between Hamas and Israel is a tragedy in a world already rife with too many crises. Hamas’s massive attack on Israel, predominantly targeting families and children, cannot be justified by the prolonged history of Israel’s occupation of Palestine, no matter how brutal and indifferent the approach to the fate of Palestinians may have been. Just yesterday, a hospital in the north of the Gaza Strip was bombed, causing the loss of hundreds of lives. The ongoing blame game between the two parties further illustrates the deepening hostilities, no matter who is ultimately found to be responsible. In carrying out this attack, Hamas never believed it would overthrow the Israeli state by military force. Rather, it has followed a well-worn playbook of terrorist organizations that aim to provoke excessive retaliation by military and state forces, fostering further grievances and creating a broader base of civil resistance and strife. This basic strategy has been followed by terrorist groups as diverse as the Red Army Faction, Irgun and the Stern Group, and Al-Qaeda. The State of Israel is now, unfortunately, following this playbook, responding with lethal actions in the Gaza Strip. The degree of shock and outrage in Israeli society cannot be overestimated—the more than 1,400 dead are, in proportion to Israel’s size, the equivalent of more than 45,000 dead in the United States. Yet, its response is disproportionate and knowingly breaches international humanitarian law. Israel has demanded that one million Palestinians evacuate their homes and has cut off energy, food supplies, medical supplies, and water to the Gaza Strip. In this piece, Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally discuss what should the international community do to prevent an irreversible downward spiral in both societies, in the conflict between them, and in the spillover to the rest of the world?
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

146. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

147. The Red Sea Front - The Yemen Review, November and December 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi military action in the Red Sea escalated dramatically during November and December, as the group announced the creation of a ‘third front’ against Israel in retaliation for its war in Gaza and military operations along the Lebanese border. Isolated attacks in October, nominally undertaken in solidarity with the besieged residents of Gaza, have mutated into a sustained campaign, with Houthi leaders now threatening to enforce a blockade of all ships headed to Israel through the area. Dozens of missile and drone strikes against maritime traffic have pushed the major shipping and oil companies to reroute their vessels. The attacks have been a public relations coup for the Houthis, who filmed the dramatic hijacking of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, and have painted themselves as defenders of the Palestinian people. Regional powers have been hesitant to condemn the attacks, which were occurring near daily as of mid-December. The response from the US and other Western powers has been cautious. The US has sent additional warships to the region, and the Pentagon announced the formation of an international task force to protect shipping, though the scope of coordination is not yet clear. Mindful of the popularity of the Houthis’ stance, regional states have refused to officially join the response, with the sole exception of Bahrain. But the task force is unlikely to be the final word in the response. The US, Israel, or other Western nations may still launch strikes if Houthi operations continue unabated. At present they show no signs of stopping, and the group continues to work to improve its maritime power projection. The Houthis have also continued to press on other fronts, launching an attack on Marib in early November. The operation was reportedly the largest in months, and the group has continued to send reinforcements and fortify its positions in the area. Its long-held interest in the governorate’s strategic oil fields does not appear to have abated. The Houthis have also intensified military action in southern Hudaydah, perhaps looking to extend their maritime reach toward the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. A Saudi-Houthi deal, which seemed imminent through much of November, now appears to be on hold. The scale and brazenness of Houthi attacks have given US and Saudi officials pause, even if they still wish for a settlement to be completed. With further military action likely, and the scale of the international response not yet clear, the Houthis’ position vis-à-vis the peace process and the internationally recognized government is now less certain. Should they or the Saudis abandon peace talks, Yemen could face renewed military contestation between the Houthis and their opponents. For its part, the UN Special Envoy’s office announced its continued support for the process. The declining prospects of a deal, which reportedly promised massive Saudi financial relief in the form of public sector salary payments, has further imperiled the cash-strapped internationally recognized government. Saudi assistance promised to the government in August has not arrived, and the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks have dramatically increased already high shipping costs, which are passed on to consumers. The country is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations as it relies almost entirely on imported foodstuffs, and the economic harm from Houthi operations will be felt most intensely in Yemen. Nearing bankruptcy, the government may no longer be able to pay salaries in the new year. It has already suspended FX auctions to finance basic commodity imports, and with its hard currency reserves exhausted, the value of the new rial has been falling since October. The government’s options to raise revenues are limited. A proposal to sell discounted oil to an Emirati company drew intense backlash, though it is unclear what other avenues are available. The government’s insolvency is perhaps most visible in its inability to provide electricity to the interim capital of Aden. The UAE sent an emergency fuel shipment in November to keep power plants running as an interim measure, but a long-term solution remains elusive.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

148. Note on the Present Situation in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza

Author:
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In this dramatic period, severe conflicts are endangering global security. It is important to reduce heavily these conflicts and restore a path for peace and security. It will not be an easy task, but it is important that Pugwash make its contribution to the goal of peace in whatever way possible. In any case the most important decision to be made is an immediate ceasefire followed by suitable negotiations. Let us discuss briefly the two most relevant and dangerous current conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza and Israel. The number of people killed and wounded, both civilian and military, is growing daily, and the numbers mentioned below are just provisional data.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

149. On the goals of the war – between national security and personal security

Author:
Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
While Israel must show absolute commitment to the release of all the hostages, collective national security must be its top priority. The political echelon needs to make it clear to the public and the families of the hostages that it is imperative to stick to priorities in the war on Hamas. It is only by achieving military and political victory that Israel will create the conditions for the release of all the hostages.
Topic:
National Security, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

150. The Ultimate Goal of the War – a New Regional and Global Architecture

Author:
Kobi Michael
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Gaza war should serve to upend the existing order and usher in a new regional order. This transformation will be reflected in a new regional framework that relies on the normalization process between Israel and the Arab world, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia. The great war against the axis of evil should not stop there. Israel and the free world must continue the relentless pursuit of the leaders of terrorist organizations and their operatives worldwide.
Topic:
Terrorism, Normalization, Regional Security, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia