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6311. When Labour and Capital Collude: The Varieties of Welfare Capitalism and Early Retirement in Europe, Japan and the USA

Author:
Bernhard Ebbinghaus
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The institutionalisation of early retirement has become a universal feature of postwar industrial economies, though there are significant cross-national variations. This paper studies the impact of different types of welfare regimes, production systems and labour relations on early exit from work. After an analysis of the main trends, the paper discusses the costs and benefits of early retirement for the various actors — labour, capital and the state — at different levels. The paper outlines both the “pull” and “push” factors of early exit. It first compares the distinct welfare state regimes and private occupational pensions in their impact on early retirement. Then it looks at the labour-shedding strategies inherent to particular employment regimes, production systems and financial governance structures. Finally, the impact of particular industrial relations systems, and especially the role of unions is discussed. The paper finds intricate “institutional complementarities” between particular welfare states, production regimes and industrial relations systems, and these structure the incentives under which actors make decisions on work and retirement. The paper argues that the “collusion” between capital, labour and the state in pursuing early retirement is not merely following a labour-shedding strategy to ease mass unemployment, but also caused by the need for economic restructuration, the downsizing pressures from financial markets, the maintenance of peaceful labour relations, and the consequences of a seniority employment system.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, and East Asia

6312. Forward Presence and Peacetime "Shaping": Comparative Analysis of Great Power Experiences

Author:
Edward Rhodes, Jonathan DiCicco, Sarah Milburn, and Tom Walker
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Security and Democracy
Abstract:
The United States has a range of tools at its disposal with which to shape the international environment in ways favorable to U.S. interests and global security. Shaping activities enhance U.S. security by promoting regional security and preventing or reducing. . . [a] wide range of diverse threats.... These measures adapt and strengthen alliances and friendships, maintain U.S. influence in key regions and encourage adherence to international norms.... The U.S. military plays an essential role in...shaping the international environment in ways that protect and promote U.S. interests. Through overseas presence and peacetim e engagement activities such as defense cooperation, security assistance, and training and exercises with allies and friends, our armed forces help to deter aggression and coercion, promote regional stability, prevent and reduce conflicts and threats, and serve as role models for militaries in emerging democracies. . . .
Topic:
Security, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

6313. A Verification Regime for Warhead Control

Author:
Liu Suping
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
After a brief period of progress, the U.S.-Russian nuclear reduction process has reached a stalemate. This situation causes us to rethink the following issues: What is the motivation for the two nuclear superpowers to conduct nuclear reductions? How can the focus of the nuclear arms reduction process be changed from verification of reduction of delivery vehicles to verification of reduction of warheads and nuclear materials? What is the objective for future nuclear reductions? What kind of verification regime will be required for future nuclear reductions?
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

6314. EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment

Author:
Harry Flam and Per Jansson
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The partial effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on exports from each EMU member to the rest of the EMU is estimated on annual data for 1967-97, using modern time-series methods. The long-run relations between exchange rate volatility and exports are mostly negative and in several cases insignificantly different from zero. Thus, these estimates do not provide much support for the hypothesis that the elimination of nominal exchange rate volatility will significantly increase trade within the EMU. However, the EMU will presumably lead to geographical concentration of production and therefore indirectly to increased trade within the EMU and, during a transitional stage, to increased foreign direct investment, both within the EMU and between the EMU and the rest of the world.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

6315. The Impact of EMU on European Transition Economies

Author:
David Begg
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
An interesting theory of transition must give a convincing account of structural adjustment and supply side improvement. In this paper, I discuss the incentives for government to undertake costly supply side improvement and how these relate to incentives governing the design of monetary and fiscal policy during transition. The government cares about deviations of inflation, output and government spending from their ideal levels, is subject to a budget constraint in which inflation yields some real revenue, and recognizes the distortionary effects of excess levels of taxation. Costly structural adjustment enhances future output by reducing supply side distortions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6316. EMU and the Developing Countries

Author:
Benjamin J. Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to explore economic and political implications of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for developing countries. In strictly economics terms, influences will be communicated through both trade and financial channels. Economies in the developing world will be affected by changes in European growth rates as well as by EMU's impact on transaction costs and enterprise competitiveness within Europe; they will also be impacted by changes in the structure and efficiency of Europe's capital markets. Modifications may be anticipated in borrowing and investment practices at the private level as well as in reserve and debt-management policies at the official level. In political terms, developing countries will be most directly influences by the anticipated rivalry between Europe's new single currency, the euro, and the dollar, which will compel developing countries to reconsider their own national currency strategies. Three conclusions stand out. First, except for selected groups of countries with particularly close ties to the EU, most economic linkages appear marginal at best. It is much easier to enumerate possible channels of transmission than to find many that appear quantitatively significant. Second, among economic effects of EMU, financial channels seem to matter more than trade channels. And third, across the full range of possible linkages, the most lasting influences for developing countries may well turn out, notably, to be political rather than either trade or financial. Significant changes are likely in exchange-rates regimes in many parts of the developing world.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6317. Will the Euro Trigger More Monetary Unions in Africa?

Author:
Patrick Honohan and Philip R. Lane
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse the prospects for greater monetary integration in Africa, in the wake of EMU. We argue that the structural characteristics of African economies are quite different to the EMU members but that much can be gained from monetary cooperation, as an external agency of restraint and in promoting stability in the financial sector. EMU has only a marginal impact on the net benefits of monetary cooperation but the euro would be a natural anchor for any African monetary unions. Indeed, the most likely route to new monetary cooperation in Africa is via a common peg to the euro.
Topic:
Emerging Markets and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

6318. Europe and the Mediterranean: The Barcelona Process Five Years On

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In November 1995, the European Union signed a wide-ranging declaration with the twelve littoral states of the South Mediterranean at the end of a major conference in Barcelona. The declaration outlined an agreed policy for future relations between the EU and its Mediterranean partners which sought to create a zone of shared stability, prosperity and peace. This policy is designed to condition relations throughout the Mediterranean on a new basis of partial economic integration and cooperation over mutual security issues, together with support for regional political, cultural and social development. It has extremely ambitious objectives and represents a new departure for the European Union, although the means proposed to achieve it have been modest. Now, almost five years after its inception, it is appropriate to consider to what degree it has begun to realize the objectives it set for itself, given the fact that they should be achieved by the year 2010.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Barcelona

6319. An Ever Larger Europe

Author:
Julie Smith
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Thirteen countries are currently seeking to join the European Union. Several more countries, including some Southeast European states that have already signed Stability and Association Agreements with the EU, not to mention some of the Caucasian and Central Asian members of the CIS, have also expressed a desire to be considered for membership at some point in the future. While those former Soviet states, with the possible exception of Moldova, are unlikely to join, the EU is committed to enlarging to the south and east.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

6320. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:
Koji Morita
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Europe